The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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The Powell Endorsement
October 19, 2008 11:38 AM
Endorsements tend to reinforce predispositions rather than change them. Nonetheless Colin Powell's is unusual, in that it both crosses the aisle and comes from a particularly well-liked quasi-political figure - one, as a bonus, who's steeped in the military experience Barack Obama lacks.
A few data points:
-In a Fox News poll in August, registered voters by nearly 2-1 said a Powell endorsement would make them more likely rather than less likely to vote for Obama – 35 percent more likely, 19 percent less so. (“No difference” was not offered as a choice; 43 percent volunteered it anyway.)
-Same poll, 76 percent reported an overall favorable opinion of Powell, 13 percent unfavorable.
-In an ABC/Post poll back in October 1995, 64 percent of Americans said Powell should run for president in 1996. In a head-to-head matchup Powell led Bill Clinton by 10 points, 52 to 42 percent, among registered voters. (Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, though, Powell was not the frontrunner in preference for their party's nomination; he ran second to Bob Dole.)
-Same October 1995 poll, 70 percent viewed Powell favorably. And 54 percent rated his leadership abilities as “outstanding” or “above average,” well above his contemporaries (Bush 41 got above-average leadership ratings from 39 percent, Bob Dole 26, Bill Clinton 25). Powell also bettered Ronald Reagan’s leadership rating (43 percent outstanding/above average).
Note, part of Powell’s popularity stems from the fact that he’s never waded as deeply into the political fray as those who battle it out to win and hold elective office. It’s when they engage at that level that public figures are at greatest risk of losing some of their appeal, or at least putting it on the line.
Regardless, beyond his popularity and Republican credentials, Powell's endorsement may resonate for another reason: In making it he criticized John McCain for negative campaigning - a concern that, as I reported here a week ago, the public clearly shares.
October 19, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (332)
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Say good night McLiar and "Pal"!
Posted by: jen | Oct 19, 2008 11:42:48 AM
This helps the democratic ticket.
Posted by: Kathy | Oct 19, 2008 11:46:01 AM
Powell, a man who openly lied in a UN speech, a GOP, long time friend of McCain, who knows McCain's committment to country and experience. Yet endorses Obama, has in the past called it "symbolic", now calls it "transformational".
Yep, Americans see right through it, it's the ultimate form of racism, race before country, race before our safety and security.
It is appalling. Powell sent our young men and women to Iraq to fight terrorists, and now he endorses Obama, who was friends for years with a terrorist, Ayers, who had plans to bomb the Pentagon, where Powell himself has worked?
Shame, shame, SHAME !!! On you Mr. Powell, (I can't even call you General, you have shamed your title), how can you betray us like that? I am so furious I can barely think. Disgraceful. Traitor.
How can you look in the eyes of our soldiers, who are risking their lives for this country, that you support this disgusting and corrupt criminal Obama?
You are not a hero, you are not even a good American.
Posted by: liberati | Oct 19, 2008 11:52:40 AM
Ya, I think Powell is speaking for many republican moderates who are tired of extreme right policiies and McCain's really nasty campaign in particular.
Posted by: bob | Oct 19, 2008 11:56:54 AM
John McCain is doomed.
Posted by: euro.guy | Oct 19, 2008 11:59:03 AM
I have two family members who have served in Iraq (one is currently serving a third rotation) and I know that General Powell is very well respected among military families. I believe his endorsement will go a long way in convincing undecided members of the military that Senator Obama is indeed ready to lead.
Posted by: cj | Oct 19, 2008 12:02:14 PM
I agree with Mr. Powell. As a die heart republican and yes I am a white male for those wo care..Shame on you if you do, I dont. I will vote for the best team ant that is NOT McCain and Clueless Palin. Paolin is a huge factor I will not vote for this women. She does not have a clue of whats going on. McCain just dont undestand the economic situation we are in. I will gladly cast my vote for Obama/Biden the best team this time around. I hope in 2012 we Republicans elect a better candidate to represent us and a by far a better VP. I urge all republicans to follow lead will Powell is a man od respect, dignity and admiration for his brilliance.
Posted by: James | Oct 19, 2008 12:03:18 PM
wmam: "Powell also created most of the disaster in the beginning of the IRAQ war"
It is well documented that the disaster in the beginning of the Iraq war was clearly forseen by Powell's state department, who was cut out and ignored by "great us with roses" Cheney and "small force, shock and awe" Rumsfeld.
Once again, another data point proving the Republicans are the Party of Ignorance - reality need not apply.
Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 19, 2008 12:05:27 PM
MODERATE REPUBLICANS FOR OBAMA!!!!.
Posted by: Jason | Oct 19, 2008 12:06:06 PM
liberati: "Powell, a man who openly lied in a UN speech, a GOP, long time friend of McCain, who knows McCain's committment to country and experience. Yet endorses Obama, "
The rest of your post devolved into incoherent ranting that made little sense, but I think the above deserves to be repeated. Colin Powell is a long time member of the GOP and is notorious for being a good soldier - that is not bucking his boss (Bush told him to go to the UN, so he swallowed hard and did his job) and holding generally conservative views. Yet he is endorsing Obama from a position of great knowledge about McCain and close knowledge of the job. That does indeed say a great deal.
Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 19, 2008 12:09:50 PM
jason...
there should be no "republican" that sides with obama. AGAINST mccain, maybe but no way is it possible to have republican views of any kind, and see eye to eye with obama.
Posted by: tim | Oct 19, 2008 12:11:32 PM
Well, I guess I'm going Obama/Biden this time around, if you can believe it.
Posted by: MO_1193 | Oct 19, 2008 12:23:34 PM
In less than two weeks the election will be over.
At that time all the rednecks and other hillbillies can go back to their front porches, drinking cheap beer, pickin' their banjos and pickin' their noses and far*in'.
Happy trails to y'all...
Posted by: Majus | Oct 19, 2008 12:24:45 PM
Say goodnight Bush- McCain-Palin losers. Your Reign of Error is almost over.
Posted by: AnotherBuckeye | Oct 19, 2008 12:26:39 PM
The Powell endorsement was needed because more BAD information about OBAMA and his lies are coming out. You save your amno until needed.
OBAMA knew that man (Tony Rezko) was a crook, a villain, a criminal; a lawbreaker and he still purchased not only his home but property from this man. Read article in the Wall Street Journal:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/rnc-obama-we-learned/story.aspx?guid={B4C6A928-1F06-4A02-A013-2619541EC104}&dist=hppr
Obama Called His Purchase Of The Land "A Boneheaded Move" Because Rezko "Was Already Under A Cloud Of Concern." "'I am the first one to acknowledge that it was a boneheaded move for me to purchase this 10-foot strip from Rezko, given that he was already under a cloud of concern,”' Obama said. '”I will also acknowledge that from his perspective, he no doubt believed that by buying the piece of property next to me that he would, if not be doing me a favor, it would help strengthen our relationship.'" (Rick Pearson, Chicago Tribune, 12/14/06).
Obama said, "There's No Doubt I Should Have Seen Some Red Flags In Terms Of Me Purchasing A Piece of Property from Him."(Peter Slevin, The Washington Post, 12/17/06).
Posted by: Mike | Oct 19, 2008 12:27:11 PM
vs - you should rehearse these words "President Obama"
Posted by: mudge007 | Oct 19, 2008 12:31:40 PM
AWSOME endorsement!!!!
Powell...Truly one of America's most recognized patriots. Now throw your slander McCain.
Posted by: Rob | Oct 19, 2008 12:33:25 PM
Makes no matter that Powell endorsed another black.
McCain has the endorsement of FOUR EX- SECRETARIES OF STATE.
Americans vote on their own judgement, not some endorsement by anyone!
HILLARY SUPPORTER FOR McCAIN
Posted by: Hope, Change, Hate, Nobama '08 | Oct 19, 2008 12:35:44 PM
Doesn't this make Powell's whole career fraudulent? And how do the lefty libs feel since they've hated Powell for so long? Ooops, guess it doesn't matter if you have the right skin color.
Posted by: Hope, Change, Hate, Nobama '08 | Oct 19, 2008 12:38:52 PM
Is this the same Colin Powell that 8 years ago the African American and Liberals were calling an "Uncle Tom"? Funny when somebody who 8 years ago you all hated because he did not share your view you considered him a "Uncle Tom", and now that he is supporting your side he is the greatest thing ever! I am sure Powell's endorsment will help sure up the African American vote for Obama's Black From 98% to 98.5.
New Poll...
ZOGBY: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1%...
Posted by: chuck | Oct 19, 2008 12:39:12 PM
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