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A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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The Powell Endorsement

October 19, 2008 11:38 AM

Endorsements tend to reinforce predispositions rather than change them. Nonetheless Colin Powell's is unusual, in that it both crosses the aisle and comes from a particularly well-liked quasi-political figure - one, as a bonus, who's steeped in the military experience Barack Obama lacks.

A few data points:

-In a Fox News poll in August, registered voters by nearly 2-1 said a Powell endorsement would make them more likely rather than less likely to vote for Obama – 35 percent more likely, 19 percent less so. (“No difference” was not offered as a choice; 43 percent volunteered it anyway.)

-Same poll, 76 percent reported an overall favorable opinion of Powell, 13 percent unfavorable.

-In an ABC/Post poll back in October 1995, 64 percent of Americans said Powell should run for president in 1996. In a head-to-head matchup Powell led Bill Clinton by 10 points, 52 to 42 percent, among registered voters. (Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, though, Powell was not the frontrunner in preference for their party's nomination; he ran second to Bob Dole.)

-Same October 1995 poll, 70 percent viewed Powell favorably. And 54 percent rated his leadership abilities as “outstanding” or “above average,” well above his contemporaries (Bush 41 got above-average leadership ratings from 39 percent, Bob Dole 26, Bill Clinton 25). Powell also bettered Ronald Reagan’s leadership rating (43 percent outstanding/above average).

Note, part of Powell’s popularity stems from the fact that he’s never waded as deeply into the political fray as those who battle it out to win and hold elective office. It’s when they engage at that level that public figures are at greatest risk of losing some of their appeal, or at least putting it on the line.

Regardless, beyond his popularity and Republican credentials, Powell's endorsement may resonate for another reason: In making it he criticized John McCain for negative campaigning - a concern that, as I reported here a week ago, the public clearly shares.

October 19, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (332)

User Comments

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Mike: "he still purchased not only his home but property from this man."

Are you deliberately lying or mindlessly parroting a lie you were told by the Republicans. It is a matter of public record that Obama did not purchase his home from Rezko. He purchased an extra 10' strip of land from Rezko/Rezko's wife to enlarge his back yard.

When Republicans continuously lie about easily proven and documented facts they not only draw into question their honesty and integrity, but at this point their inteligence.

Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 19, 2008 12:40:13 PM

Bravo Mr. Powell! We needed and appreciate his wonderful endorsement! Mr. Powell said so many things. That needed to be said. Senator Obama has the ability to reach out to people of different races, religions, ages, etc. We need someone who will not just focus on "hockey moms". We need someone who is interested in helping all moms, rich, poor, Black, White, Latino, etc.

Posted by: Cathy | Oct 19, 2008 12:42:24 PM

Reading blogs reminds me how far we have to go in the area of race in America. We raise the flag, sing God bless American and are the most racist people in the world.

It is not just OK for someone to have a view that is not in line with ours, there has to be something wrong with the other person.

Disappointed

Posted by: Curtis | Oct 19, 2008 12:43:24 PM

HILLARY SUPPORTER FOR McCAIN

Posted by: Hope, Change, Hate, Nobama '08 | Oct 19, 2008 12:35:44 PM

Newsflash! Hillary is supporting him too.

Posted by: Jwench | Oct 19, 2008 12:43:52 PM

Curtis: "We raise the flag, sing God bless American and are the most racist people in the world. "

This is absolute nonsense. Have you ever lived outside of the US? Or even visited? The US is among the most racially tolerant nations the world has ever seen. Granted, that's not a very high bar and there is plenty of room for improvement, but spend some time in France, Germany, Japan, even the UK and get some perspective before insulting one of the most racially diverse and harmonious nations in the world.

Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 19, 2008 12:46:17 PM

NoSpin

It seems the Republican Party is splitting between the dogma or Spin eaters and the true thinkers. And thank goodness I am beginning to see them as such. For a while there I was beginning to think there was some form of mass hypnotism going on. And a note about Joe the Plumber - McCain spends a lot of time arguing over a 3% tax increase for people who have taxable income above $250,000.00 – Most of us voters are not going to have to worry about that issue after 8 years of Republican leadership our children. Sen. McCain might as well be talking about taxes for Lottery winners as $250,000.00 taxable income. Yes I am White Male, a US Veteran, I’ve voted for Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton – I never voted for Bush and I will not Vote for McSame – it’s not about color it’s about Country and I am voting for Obama.

Posted by: NoSpin in Florida | Oct 19, 2008 12:48:39 PM

jhw539, those are excellent points but there is one flaw in the entire scenario: one cannot legislate morality.

Throwing money or laws at something will not change everyone overnight; it takes generations -- generations of education and right-thinking on the part of individuals. In some parts of our country that could take a very long time.

Unfortunately, giving Joe-Six-Pack enough help to enable him to buy a shiny new truck isn't going to help him unless somewhere along the line he also gets an attitude adjustment.

I firmly believe Obama, as our President, will make great strides toward shortening that time but in order to achieve that, people will have to accept him for what he is: a man of intellect who has the desire to help everyone. They must overcome those old misconceptions about ethnicity -- I believe we've come too far to fall back on those outdated beliefs as a reason to not vote for him.

Unfortunately not everyone thinks as I do.

I must also correct my misstatement in the previous post about the election being over in "less than two weeks". After I posted it I realized my error. My bad.

Posted by: Majus | Oct 19, 2008 12:49:23 PM

If I had Warren Buffett advising me on monitary pollicy and Colin Powell advising me on Foreign Policy even I could be president

Posted by: kdm | Oct 19, 2008 12:52:23 PM

This is absolute nonsense. Have you ever lived outside of the US? Or even visited? The US is among the most racially tolerant nations the world has ever seen. Granted, that's not a very high bar and there is plenty of room for improvement, but spend some time in France, Germany, Japan, even the UK and get some perspective before insulting one of the most racially diverse and harmonious nations in the world.

Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 19, 2008 12:46:17 PM

I spent time in the UK and my mother is from there. You are full of baloney. I have travelled to other countries as well and have never seen the level of ignorant/racist people as I have seen right here.

Posted by: Jwench | Oct 19, 2008 12:52:32 PM

Obama has undergone two years of the most thorough back ground check ever made of a candidate anywhere for any office. Yet there are still those who use Ayers, Wright, Acorn, along with the words traitor, terrorists, etc. to attack him.

These people cry for the "Truth"!

The problem is that the truth has already been told, and both John McCain and Sarah Palin have, with their recent recognition of Obama's patriotism and love of country, support this fact. The people that continue to espouse such attacks only want to hear their version of the truth, not reality.

Powell's support of Obama should put the final nail in the coffin of personal attacks against Obama. Only the far right hate filled sub-humans could possibly continue their false rhetoric.


Posted by: Rob | Oct 19, 2008 12:52:52 PM

Whoa… great news. Colin is a very respectable man. Thanks for throwing your support behind Obama. Good going Barack!

To those of you who think that Mr. Powell is bring racist… he has every right to chose the person HE feels is right for this endorsement. Maybe all whites were being racist for last many years coz they never gave a black/biracial candidate a chance.

Posted by: Niky | Oct 19, 2008 12:53:39 PM

This means absolutely nothing to me. I've distrusted Powell, the RINO, for years.

However, I'm worried that, in reality, hundreds of thousands of middle-class, middle income, moderate, independent suburban voters could be influenced by this, especially if they're on the fence. I'm concerned about those people who could vote Republican or Democratic, any given year, depending on the candidate and the circumstances. This could, I'm afraid, make a difference, in a bad way.

I don't see how the Powell endorsement could hurt BHO. Or help McCain.

The Powell endorsement, any way you cut it, has to be a net loss for John McCain. It might mean the difference in a state as close as Ohio or Florida.

Posted by: John Foster | Oct 19, 2008 12:58:27 PM

This deeply saddens me, as the credibility of Collin Powell has been lost. Throughout Mr. Powell’s career he espoused Moderate Republican values similar to that of John McCain. I would have voted for Collin Powell had he run for President. To support a man with such inexperience, questionable integrity and above all the most liberal member of congress is eye opening and appalling. It proves that many educated blacks are making race the sole issue in the election. Mr. Powell’s stance on gays in the military will have to be explained by Obama but he will be able to back track on this issue as on so many others. The Canadians can attest to Obama’s rhetoric regarding NAFTA and his closed door meeting to assure them he would not raise the issue after the election. The gullible American electorate as they are referred to will not bring the issue up as economic issue remains forefront of the election and trying to tie McCain’s policies to Bush. The fact that Bush has turned out to be a liberal democrat when it comes to spending and Obama wants to continue these policies has been deflected.

Posted by: jamesferre | Oct 19, 2008 1:02:17 PM

The Washington Post, the Chicago Tribune, the LA Times, and now Colin Powell - it's just like the primaries, Obama is racking up the endorsements. These things DO matter. Whether they sway undecideds or not, it says something about a person and his candidacy when respected people and organizations back them.

Posted by: jon in maryland | Oct 19, 2008 1:03:39 PM

Typical neocon Republicans turning viciously on one of their own as soon as they express a differing opinion. By their logic, every Caucasian voting for McCain is, therefore, also racist.

Posted by: Susanne | Oct 19, 2008 1:06:15 PM

I am so sick of all the foul spewing garbage going on in this campaign. Both sides are guilty of it - but it seems the Republicans and the Republican-slanted media (Limbaugh - Fox News)really cannot have an open discussion with out throwing negative ideas out. What we need to do is throw THOSE bums out of the country because they are the ones that keep stoking the hate fires.

Colin Powell is a man I repsect. As Secretary of State, he had a job that no one wanted to do. He did it well - he just followed what President Bush and V-P Cheney wanted. Nothing more nothing less. I blame the people in charge, not the messenger. His endorsement was thoughtful and well-spoken.

Also the Chicago Tribune, for the first time in 160 years gave a Democrat and Obama the nod. It is his demeanor and his thoughtfulness that is gaining supporters.

I just wish Senator McCain was the same person he was 8 yrs ago. There was a man who really had a good and decent campaign. It seems now all he can do is belittle and demean. I blame McCain, since he is ultimately in charge of his campaign for the tone of it. He ultimately doomed himself.

Posted by: bot | Oct 19, 2008 1:08:51 PM

The Colin Powell endorsements just further exposed the liberals for the hypocrites they really are.
For months the libs have been putting down Colin Powell for being a black republican and slamming him for his role in the Iraq war, now, since he has endorsed Obama all is forgiven.
Powell was a terrible Secretary of State and left his office in disgrace. It was Colin Powell who urged the U.N. to go to war with the U.S., and when they didn't not give their approval, he did it anyway. He was a poor advisor to Bush.
I don't think his endorsing a black man is a great shocker to anyone nor is it the coup de grace for the McCain camp.

Posted by: Sean A | Oct 19, 2008 1:09:52 PM

1. It proves that many educated blacks are making race the sole issue in the election.

2. what Powell's endorsement means bottom line: it's all about race.

3. Is it any wonder. Powell is black.

4. it's the ultimate form of racism, race before country, race before our safety and security.
_________________________________________________
Those of you claiming Powell is endorsing Obama because he is black need a history lesson.

If race were the reason, Powell would have supported Jesse Jackson in 1988 instead of George Bush. An administration he served as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. The same holds true for 1984 when Powell served under Reagan as his National Security Advisor.

If you are so certain Powell is endorsing based on race, why did he not endorse these past African-American presidential candidates?

Shirley Chisholm, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Alan Keyes, Carol Moseley Braun, and Lenora Fulani

The fact is this is not about race, you know it and efforts to taint it that way just reflect poorly on you and your candidate.

Posted by: Paige | Oct 19, 2008 1:13:01 PM

Colin Powell changes his positions as often as Obama. I would not be surprised to see him endorse McCain next week, after all he did contribute the maximum allowed to McCain's campaign prior to endorsing Obama.

No matter, Senator McCain has the endorsement of numerous former Secretaries of State, and more than a hundred Generals and Admirals.

McCain/Palin '08

Posted by: LJC | Oct 19, 2008 1:14:12 PM

Gen. Powell cites Obama’s "ability to inspire" and the "inclusive nature of his campaign."
You know that is exactly what is missing in the McCain/Palin camp the ability to suggest any reasonable change is this countries basic downward direction of the past 8 years -

Why it is all the Republican supporters and messages are all about tearing down negativism –the Republican message is all about Fear, Anger and Hate – If that’s your message you’ve lost more than the White House – If you don’t even understand the problem, chances are you are the problem. Now we have people trashing Gen Powell for standing up and speaking out on the negative nature of the Republican campaign, how status quo for the Republicans. Would the last RNC Member turn out the lights!!!
And all the Democratic supporters are about positivism and change– the Democratic message seems to be about acknowledging the issues and finding solutions.

FYI - it’s OK to be against the War in Iraq and still be a Patriot – in fact as a free country we need to question every time we take a life or sacrifice one of our own brave soldiers in the line of fire – when we stop questioning ourselves we are in real trouble.

Posted by: NoSpin in Florida | Oct 19, 2008 1:16:10 PM

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