The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Do Something?
November 02, 2008 7:24 AM
Half of likely voters believe that if elected Barack Obama actually could do something to improve the economy, and more, nearly six in 10, think he’d “change the culture” of Washington – far more than hold either expectation of John McCain.
Just 29 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll think McCain could improve the economy, and 26 percent think he’d change Washington – 21 and 32 points behind Obama, respectively, on these measures.
A difference in partisan assessments is part of the cause. Eighty percent of Democrats say Obama could improve the economy – but fewer Republicans, 57 percent, say their party’s candidate could do the same. And in the political middle, 45 percent of independents think Obama could improve the economy, while 27 percent say the same of McCain.
The divisions on changing Washington are also striking. Seventy-three percent of Democrats say Obama would change the culture of the nation’s capital; just 50 percent of Republicans say the same of McCain. And among independents, 58 percent say Obama would bring change, vs. just 26 percent who say McCain would do so.
For Obama, differences on these questions are generational as well as political. Among likely voters under age 30, three-quarters think Obama could improve the economy and change the culture in Washington alike. Among senior citizens those fall to 46 and 53 percent, respectively.
There’s no such generational gap for McCain; about three in 10 likely voters, young and seniors alike, think he could make progress on either goal.
While McCain has an overall advantage in vote preference among white voters, on these questions there’s a gap in Obama’s favor. Forty-two percent of whites think Obama could change the economy; more, 52 percent, think he could change the culture of Washington. But just 33 and 29 percent of whites, respectively, say the same of McCain.
These measures underscore two key Obama advantages. The economy is the overriding issue of the campaign, and likely voters by 54-40 percent trust him over McCain to handle it. And with a record number saying the country’s seriously off on the wrong track, “change,” the theme that saw Obama through the primaries, continues to boost his candidacy.
November 2, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (100)
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Of course he would change the culture. He already wants to create a civilian "security force" to rival our military.. What would he need a force so powerful for against America's citizens?
Here is a video of Obama saying just that:
http://www.middleofright.com/2008/11/obamas-civilian-security-force-scary.html
If you want a few reasons to vote for / against Obama I've written my thoughts on it: http://www.middleofright.com/2008/10/top-reasons-to-vote-for-obama.html
Posted by: Michael | Nov 2, 2008 7:54:42 AM
Clearly Obama is the better candidate.
It just baffles me to try to understand what on earth is appealing to McCain's supporters? He seems to care more about businesses than people. Granted, companies supply jobs - but since (obviously) not everyone can own a business wouldn't it make more sense care more about the masses?
And whenever he brings up how businesses in the U.S. (are suppose to) pay 35% in taxes - JUST ONCE I'd like to hear him admit how they pay much less through LOOP HOLES and how he plans on stopping that!
Posted by: Marie | Nov 2, 2008 8:01:36 AM
Marie:
Do you really want what Obama offers. When was the last time a leader did what Obama wants to do in the below video? Please tell me why does he need a civilian force as strong as our Armed Forces? Tell me?
Here is a video of Obama saying just that:
http://www.middleofright.com/2008/11/obamas-civilian-security-force-scary.html
Posted by: chuck | Nov 2, 2008 8:05:28 AM
Obama did his homework first before
he decided to be one of the candidates.
He realised before hand that something is wrong somewhere and must be CHANGED.
He has a vision and he sees more far than most of us can imagine of.
Posted by: FM | Nov 2, 2008 8:07:42 AM
It just baffles me to try to understand what on earth is appealing to McCain's supporters?Posted by: Marie | Nov 2, 2008 8:01:36 AM
I think it's that creepy laugh. You got me on that one of what is so appealing.
Posted by: Jwench | Nov 2, 2008 8:11:26 AM
People are voting for McCain because they are smarter than the useful idiots voting for Obama and they see thru the hype.
Obama's Tax Advertisement misleadingly quotes a Heritage Foundation Analyst: "...the middle class would likely pay less under Mr. Obama's plan..." So what's REALLY on either side of those dots?
The Summary:
Through the lens of sound tax policy, both McCain's and Obama's tax plans would leave the tax code more complicated than it is today. Even so, McCain's plan has important advantages through its focus on keeping tax rates low--and lowering them further in some instances--while improving incentives for investment and correcting an extremely harmful tax distortion at the heart of much of the trouble in America's health care financing system.
In contrast, the Obama plan raises income tax rates, raises payroll taxes on a delayed basis, and actively increases the use of the tax system to redistribute income to those who pay little or no income tax. Each of these aspects move the tax code in a decidedly inappropriate direction.
On balance, the McCain plan would be decidedly better for economic growth, largely because it would lower tax rates while the Obama plan would raise tax rates. Under the McCain tax plan, the economy would be expected to be about $320 billion greater, and average household income about $2,600 higher than would be the case under the Obama tax plan.
Read the full article:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2101.cfm
Posted by: mg | Nov 2, 2008 8:17:18 AM
Chuck,
Ok - I watched the video.
And? So? You'll notice he's speaking in general terms (not in an attempt to be "vague" but to allude to many internal/domestic options in achieving national security.
Do you honestly think national security can ONLY come through our military?? That it can only come through our military being abroad/overseas??
Think about it, Chuck.
Posted by: Marie | Nov 2, 2008 8:18:17 AM
"what on earth is appealing to McCain's supporters"
I would rather have a mediocre president then one that believes our constitution is "fundamentally flawed" and wants to "fundamentally change" our country.
I'm sorry, but our country isn't fundamentally broken. It has its ups and downs but no need to turn it into Cuba just because the stock market is down.
http://www.middleofright.com/2008/11/why-barack-obama-is-wrong-for-our.html
Posted by: Michael | Nov 2, 2008 8:23:03 AM
@ mg:
No offense, but who the hell cares if tax rates are low, but everything else is rising? (Case in point: you see how fast AND LOW gas price have fallen from where they were earlier this year, don't you?)
And who cares if they "improve incentives" for those (fortunate few) who are able to invest? Most people (in the city and in the country) are living paycheck to paycheck!
Posted by: Marie | Nov 2, 2008 8:24:11 AM
Marie - in case you weren't aware we already have local police and the FBI.
What reasons do you think we need another force that would need to be as powerful as the most powerful military in human history?
Do you honestly think an organization like the FBI needs an aircraft carrier and strike planes? Who would he wield them against?
Posted by: Michael | Nov 2, 2008 8:25:37 AM
Change the culture in Washington? Like the Clinton's, who honed the art of character assassination to a level never before seen in Washington? (e.g. Jennifer Flowers being pilloried by the Clinton's, yet her claims turned out to be true. Paula Jones being pilloried by the Clinton's, yet her claims turned out to be true. Monica Lewinsky being pilloried by the Clinton's, yet her claims turned out to be true. Kathleen Willey being pilloried by the Clinton's, yet her claims turned out to be true.)
Posted by: Tyrone | Nov 2, 2008 8:26:04 AM
I have a family to support. The Republicans have done two things for me in the last eight years, Jack and Squat. I can't afford to vote for John McCain.
Posted by: blindhowlin | Nov 2, 2008 8:27:05 AM
blindhowlin - the government isn't there to do things for you. Sorry if no one told you before you got married and had kids. But taking care of them is your responsibility not the governments.
"Ask not what your country can do for you--ask what you can do for your country"
Posted by: Michael | Nov 2, 2008 8:29:35 AM
What really bother me is people like Marie just followed BLINDLY without really understand WHAT Obama is saying.
Let me give you some hints:
1. "Spread the wealth around"
2. He mentioned "Socialistic" when talking about his tax plan
3. Don't forget "communism" that he also alluded to (aka Frank Marshall Davis as his mentor)
4. Louis Farrakhan said/claimed that Obama is their mersiah to rescue them
5. The OLD saying you are WHAT companies you keep. Have you seen his companies?
Now, if you are still baffling, go take your meds and think about it.
Posted by: Voter In America | Nov 2, 2008 8:31:07 AM
First, WOW!... You would rather have a "mediocre" President?
Secondly, I thought on the link you provided you show a video of Obama saying that about our constitution OR AT LEAST cite the source within the article... but I see neither "proof" was supplied.
I honestly believe when people try to put up an argument to "protect" our constitution - they are really hiding behind a fear of change that is rooted in fears of some losing their privileged status.
Posted by: Marie | Nov 2, 2008 8:31:22 AM
If you want a few reasons to vote for / against Obama I've written my thoughts on it: http://www.middleofright.com/2008/10/top-reasons-to-vote-for-obama.html
"it should goto middle class people, people making under $150,000 a year" Joe Biden
He corrected himself in that same speech.
''I don't regret setting bombs,'I feel we didn't do enough.'' Bill Ayers 9/11/2001
"I had a thousand regrets, but no regrets for opposing the war with every ounce of my strength. I told her that in light of the indiscriminate murder of millions of Vietnamese, we showed remarkable restraint, and that while we tried to sound a piercing alarm in those years, in fact we didn’t do enough to stop the war." ----No mention of bombs.
Rashid Khalidi - Former Spokesman for the Palestinian Liberation Organization
A board that McCain sat on funded this same person.
There is no indiciation where those quotes were pulled from. Secondly, I in no way shape or form agree with what Ayers did but at least factual info should be posted.
Posted by: Jwench | Nov 2, 2008 8:32:50 AM
Michael,
Yes, we have the FBI and local police, but it sure didn't stop the TSA from forming.
Posted by: Marie | Nov 2, 2008 8:34:24 AM
Jwench - sorry Biden did not correct himself in the same speech.
Ahh so you post his justification in response but you don't really believe it. I see. Since we're bringing up Vietnam I guess you were ok with the fall of Saigon and the millions of South Vietnamese that were slaughtered because people like Ayers let us abandon them?
"A board that McCain sat on funded this same person."
Which is obviously identical to being close friends to the point where he babysits your kids and you attend dinners where they bash Isreal.
Posted by: Michael | Nov 2, 2008 8:37:56 AM
People like "blindhowlin" will fit in with Obama PROMISES to take care of them. That's the PROBLEM.
They believe for some reasons the Gov't will take care of them no matter what.
They certainly forget that the Gov't is in fact, "We the people"
It is YOUR responsibilities to take care of YOUR family NOT the Gov't.
Of course, if you want a welfare STATE, then Obama will definitely offer it to you. Remember this, you CAN NOT make MORE than the Gov't will ALLOW. Follow the RATION and FAIRNESS principles.
Posted by: Voter In America | Nov 2, 2008 8:38:26 AM
Marie - the TSA? Are you serious?
Did you expect FBI agents to go through your suitcase at the airport?
Posted by: Michael | Nov 2, 2008 8:39:18 AM
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