The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Final Tracking
November 04, 2008 1:28 AM
With our last night of interviewing complete we’re ending our ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll with our final horse race estimate unchanged at 53-44 percent, Obama-McCain. That’s among 2,304 likely voters interviewed Friday through Monday.
We’ve interviewed a total of 10,213 randomly selected adults in the last 19 days; on the odd chance you were among them, thank you. Our purpose hasn’t been to dwell on the horse race, but rather to further our understanding of how the public has come to its choices in the 2008 election – to identify the issues and candidate attributes that mattered, to measure voters’ responses to the thrust and parry of the race, to get a look inside the campaigns’ own playbooks as they’ve formed and made their appeals and to have an alternative to the spin and speculation that rush in when empirical data are absent.
Public attitudes never are more important than in national elections. Our aim at the ABC News Polling Unit this year, as in presidential elections since 1984, has been simple: Trying our best to understand them.
November 4, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (43)
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PRESIDENT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA!
Capt McCain and his talking parrot are finished. They ran the ship into the iceberg and even the prominent Pubs are jumping ship.
Only one REAL leader in this election.
And that's:
PRESIDENT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA!
Posted by: Taking Our Country Back! | Nov 4, 2008 1:56:47 AM
Taking Our Country Back!
You Got That Right ...
Get Out The Vote ! ...
Let's REALLY WIN this Thing ...
Posted by: Blogger | Nov 4, 2008 4:19:11 AM
one word ...DIEBOLD
Posted by: bah | Nov 4, 2008 4:24:18 AM
Some polls will be wrong on election day.
The latest polls in OHIO are predicting that Obama will win in OHIO no matter if he is leading, trailing or tied among INDEPENDENT VOTERS accounting for almost 30% of all voters in OHIO.
Barack Obama is underperforming John Kerry by double digits among independents in some OHIO polls considering John Kerry won by 19 points among independents while losing the election by 3 points.
Quinnipiac poll shows only 77% of Clinton supporters in OHIO (80% in PA and 75% in FL) are backing Obama which is 14% below the 91% of Democrats who are backing Obama.
No surprise considering 18% of Bill Clinton voters in 1996 did not vote for Al Gore in 2000. Also, Some of the pollsters like Zogby indicated Obama/Clinton as tie during the OHIO Primary and Obama lost by 10 points
My pick as an "Election Day Surprise" on the GOP side is McCain winning PENNSYLVANIA where the RCP poll of polls has Obama +7 down from +14 points two weeks ago and at least one poll NBC/Mason-Dixon is showing McCain is trailing by only 4 point. Some polls in PA are showing Obama support among Democrats below the national average including only 75% of Democrats in PA as per a Rasmussen poll.
In 2004 the opinion polls in PA had John Kerry winning by up to 8% in October with Bush closing the gap the last week of the election losing by only 2.2%. The exit polls also predicted John Kerry winning PA by 8.7 points which was 6.5 points above the election result.
My pick as an "Election Day Surprise" on the Dems side is Obama winning Virginia because of how he won the VA primary by an impressive margin. However, the RCP poll has Obama +3.6 down from +8.6 points two weeks ago.
Posted by: Angel | Nov 4, 2008 5:18:16 AM
Angel,
Yes, I think Ohio could be a problem for Obama.
Pennsylvania is the key. I don't see how McCain could win without it but if he won, it would certainly put pressure on Obama.
If McCain wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama would have to win Florida or, North Carolina, or two states from Virginia, Indiana and Missouri.
So if McCain pulls out Ohio and Pennsylvania, this will be a cliff hanger. Otherwise, we can all go to be early.
Posted by: Paul New man | Nov 4, 2008 5:52:00 AM
It is an Obama win!
McCain will not pull off PA, there is no way for him to win, unless the voters do not show up.
Posted by: Thinking | Nov 4, 2008 6:13:11 AM
God Bless Barack Obama!
Posted by: sarah | Nov 4, 2008 6:41:06 AM
Florida, ohio, and north carolina will come throuh for obama. It is great for this country and they should be very proud!!!
Posted by: DAVID | Nov 4, 2008 6:49:27 AM
Thinking,
I just saw the latest polls for PA:
SurveyUSA + 9% for Obama
Reuters/Zogby + 10% for Obama
Looks bad for McCain. Without PA, he has no hope.
Posted by: Paul New man | Nov 4, 2008 6:50:30 AM
DAVID,
He doesn't even need them. If he holds PA, CO, NM, MN and NV (the only states that are "close"), he will win without FL, VA, NC, OH, IN or MO.
Posted by: Paul New man | Nov 4, 2008 6:52:29 AM
Obama will win by a landslide and I helped! Boy did that feel good.
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | Nov 4, 2008 7:32:00 AM
01-20-2009 The END of an ERROR...
Posted by: pt | Nov 4, 2008 7:37:18 AM
I will be glad to have the election over, I don't care who wins because the economy can't be fixed in one year or two years and it'll probably take until the next election for this country to prosper anyway.
We need better Congressmen ---it was Congress who screwed up and didn't see the financial crisis coming -- particulary Democrat Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.
Vote for Congress carefully - screw the President.
Posted by: SheridanColts | Nov 4, 2008 7:37:55 AM
Wait, somebody named Planet Earth wants to say:
"Please America, vote for Barack Obama".
Posted by: Carlos | Nov 4, 2008 7:39:07 AM
Thank you to those who have responded to my original post and have offered your prayers! We appreciate them and pray that all is well in each of your lives – we give thanks to the blessings we do have and we remember that :
EVERY VOTE matters! When I say Vote by Your Faith - the reason is - believe it or not - it was my 12 year old daughter who got me looking into the issues - she asked "why" I was a democrat, - I HAD NO ANSWER - (since I didn’t even pay attention to what was going on - I didn’t know! I was a demo -so at that time, I was “JUST” going to vote for Hillary )
My daughter said - HOW CAN YOU VOTE IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE VOTING FOR??? She was following everything for 7th grade school project - so she showed me a test her school gave her and told me to take it -I voted by what I believed in and had taught her...
GUESS WHAT -the test showed NONE of my beliefs/votes were democratic at all - they were MCCAIN all the way!
Out of the mouth of babes - comes the truth - Mom, How can you Vote if You DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE VOTING FOR??? - In her 12 year old opinion, everything we had taught her as parents factored into her voting - she said, "SEE MOM, YOU AND DAD ARE NOT Democrats! You are for McCain - " "Just like me" - "I taught you something?" She was so proud - THIS IS OUR FUTURE -
My daughter taught us a valuable lesson ... Truth and Faith is everywhere IF YOU LISTEN - (Not to the Media - but to your heart - everything that makes each of us a True Patriot OF THE UNITED STATES, our HOME, our FREEDOM, our VALUES, OUR Children's FUTURE!!!!!!!!
I HOPE THERE is someone undecided on this board for some reason that this message touches – I was a lifetime democrat – but now I have seen with the state of this Country that whatever party McCain & Palin represent – their LEADERSHIP and PROVEN RECORD are what this Country Needs! I believe and have taught my daughter, all these years, with what I “Thought” was democratic belief system – and it wasn’t! I believe with all my heart and soul that the United States and everything it stands for is 100% represented by McCain’s military and senate EXPERIENCE! His ideas for change are a politician “words” that actually make sense and do represent a POSITIVE change for this Country!!!
YES, personally, my husband and I could use the money that O "promises", as you know my Husband & I are Unemployed for the 1st time in our lives - But I will not let that short term thinking but this country at risk with my vote! The economic FALLOUT of Obama's plans would bring are not worth this TEMPORARY financial challenge we are facing!!!
There is HOPE and it comes with a STRONG LEADER - MCCAIN / Palin! ALL WE have to do tomorrow is to STAND UP FOR OUR COUNTRY AND WHAT WE ALL HOLD DEAR - whether you call it faith or patriotism, or hope - use it to vote this year!
I Am Telling Everyone I know and don’t know - this year every vote counts and VOTE YOUR FAITH!
PLEASE - I don’t want to offend anyone - even if you are not a person of faith (whatever faith it is) – I know that all of us are a true patriots of this beautiful country - I URGE you to look past the "empty words" - and see the true core values that each of you have and vote for what you believe in!!!
I believe if each of us really researched and KNOW WHAT we are voting for - it would be a clean sweep for McCain!!
Words are EMPTY - McCain & Palin are PROVEN ! Straight talk and new ideas that make sense!
I HOPE THIS MESSAGE TOUCHES ALL OF YOU – VOTE YOUR FAITH – Whatever religion it may be – Vote for what you believe in – I think you will see – this COUNTRY NEEDS A STRONG & PROVEN LEADERS for yourself – CHANGE IS POSSIBLE – VOTE FOR McCain & Palin 2008 !!!!!
God Bless My Right To Share My Voice!
Michelle!
Posted by: VoteYourFaith | Nov 4, 2008 7:39:47 AM
I will vote MCCAIN and if he wins it's great, if he loses, then I will know exactly how many sheep there are in America.
NO RESPECT FOR LIARS NOW OR EVER.
Posted by: norespectforliars | Nov 4, 2008 7:43:04 AM
If a 12 year old convinced you to vote for McCain, then how come Sarah Palin didn't?
Posted by: Carlos | Nov 4, 2008 7:44:15 AM
Im just thinking how Palin will react when Obama wins. After all she said "God will do the right thing on nov 4".
What is she going to do when she finds out that God has rejected her and the republican party? Maybe she has to call that witch hunter minister and get another exorcism, clearly the first one didnt work! LOL
Posted by: JoeShmoe | Nov 4, 2008 7:45:31 AM
good riddance GW BUSH!!
Posted by: Gus | Nov 4, 2008 7:47:55 AM
To VoteYourFaith,
You are totally misinformed. Barack Obama is a Christian and not only talks the talk but walks the walk. He stayed true to Christian principles and did not resort to lying, and hate mongering during this election season. He maintained his dignity and always respected the other candidate. So what are you talking about when you say vote your faith? You must mean Barack Obama. Take the blinders off before you find yourself in the dark, again.
Posted by: J | Nov 4, 2008 7:48:34 AM
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