The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Final Tracking
November 04, 2008 1:28 AM
With our last night of interviewing complete we’re ending our ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll with our final horse race estimate unchanged at 53-44 percent, Obama-McCain. That’s among 2,304 likely voters interviewed Friday through Monday.
We’ve interviewed a total of 10,213 randomly selected adults in the last 19 days; on the odd chance you were among them, thank you. Our purpose hasn’t been to dwell on the horse race, but rather to further our understanding of how the public has come to its choices in the 2008 election – to identify the issues and candidate attributes that mattered, to measure voters’ responses to the thrust and parry of the race, to get a look inside the campaigns’ own playbooks as they’ve formed and made their appeals and to have an alternative to the spin and speculation that rush in when empirical data are absent.
Public attitudes never are more important than in national elections. Our aim at the ABC News Polling Unit this year, as in presidential elections since 1984, has been simple: Trying our best to understand them.
November 4, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (43)
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VoteYourFaith,
I'm happy that you have opened your eyes and are not voting like a zombie, just to respect the party line.
I disagree with your choice but I respect your right to make it.
If it's right for you, go with it.
Posted by: Paul New man | Nov 4, 2008 8:02:55 AM
Gus,
"good riddance GW BUSH!!"
Yes, this is the golden lining in this election.
In reality, I win even if Obama loses.
It's a win-win.
Posted by: Paul New man | Nov 4, 2008 8:04:35 AM
OBAMA IS THE ONE - McCain/Palin one is relying on his war record and Palin does what she wants. Really what a pair????? Is this what you want??
We need a younger person, and we need the change from the usual Republican stories (yes stories).
Everyone's talking about Obama raising taxes and just what do you think McCain is going to do - raise taxes. We've had this before with George Sr. - NO
NEW TAXES and went on and taxes were raised.
Then we get JR Bush and he gives us a tax cut. But it doesn't help the ones who need the help. Does 2 cents a month sound like it helps???????
We need the change and I don't think McCain can do it, and we know Palin can't.
s
Posted by: smt | Nov 4, 2008 9:48:22 AM
VOTE YOUR MIND - who is the better person. THINK ABOUT IT. Do we want to have more years like the past????
Faith is fine, but it is your mind who should be telling you who to vote for.
Posted by: smt | Nov 4, 2008 9:57:33 AM
What an amazing country we live in! I am a white man who voted for Obama and am proud of it! When they say anyone's child can grow up to be president in the U.S., God smiled. During the past 8 years our so-called leaders made some huge errors but with a true leader in the W.H., namely Obama, the past 8 years will dissapear like they never happened, although we wil always remember and not make that mistake again. God bless President Obama and God Bless America!
Posted by: Ron | Nov 4, 2008 10:10:51 AM
I CAN UNDERSTAND PEOPLE SAYING THAT THEY ARE PATRIOTIC AND THINGS BUT WHEN U SAY U ARE UNEMPLOYED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YOUR LIVES AND THE ECONOMY IS SHOT AND PEOPLE, 1 IN 5 ARE UPSIDE DOWN ON THEIR MORTGAGES WHILE THE OTHERS ARE BEING FORECLOSED IT SHOWS THAT WE NEED TO CHANGE OUR WAY OF THINKING. WE LET THIS ADMINISTRATION DESTROY THE FABRIC OF AMERICA IN THE LAST 8, COUNT THEM 8 YEARS. WE CANNOT AFFORD TO KEEP GOING IN THE SAME DIRECTION, WE NEED CHANGE AND WE NEED IT NOW. OBAMA IS A BREATH OF FRESH AIR AND MCCAIN IS A BUSH BUNNY. YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT MCCAIN AND VALUES, WHAT KIND OF VALUES DOES A MAN HAVE WHOSE WIFE WAITS FOR HIM AS A POW AND HE COMES HOME AND LEAVES HER FOR ANOTHER WOMAN. I'M TIRED OF THIS MORAL VALUE, AMERICAN PATRIOT THING. PEOPLE ARE PEOPLE, THEY MAKE THEIR OWN CHOICES, WHAT MAY BE RIGHT FOR SOME IS WRONG FOR OTHERS BUT LETS GET ONE THING STRAIGHT, NO ONE IS PERFECT, WE ALL HAVE FRAILTIES BUT WE ARE ONLY AS STRONG AS OUR WEAKEST LINK. THAT IS WHY THE BIBLE SAYS THAT THE MEEK SHALL INHERIT THE EARTH AND THE THE FIRST WILL BE LAST AND THE LAST SHALL BE FIRST. IT IS TIME WE SET AN EXAMPLE TO THE WORLD AND START HEALING WITHIN THAT WE MAY START HEALING OUTSIDE OF OURSELVES. PEOPLE ARE HURTING EVERYDAY, THEY, WE NEED HELP AND NOT OPPRESSION. GET THOSE OIL MAGNETS OUT OF OFFICE AND TURN TO A NEW DIRECTION. VOTE OBAMA, VOTE CHANGE AND VOTE RESPONSIBLY FOR THE GREATER GOOD OF YOUR FELLOW MAN!!!
Posted by: WILLIE | Nov 4, 2008 10:50:37 AM
No matter who wins we will be finished with George Bush. And that is a victory for the American people.
Posted by: RRRD73A | Nov 4, 2008 10:56:29 AM
Obama has PA in the bag and I helped. YEAHHHHHHHH! That feels good.
Posted by: jfelton05 | Nov 4, 2008 11:32:24 AM
Folks
We all know that our political leanings make us like whatever our candidates say to us. Both Dem and Rep....
But America can not prosper and for that matter Rich people can not prosper with a solid middle class. That is why there is a big talk of emerging middle class in Brazil, India, China and Russia.
Republicans have been anything but fiscally responsible in the last 8 years and middle class of today are hurting.
For the prosperity of our nation, we need a president who will focus on middle class. That is why I voted for Obama/Biden.
McCain is a war hero and our beloved. But that does not mean he is qualified for the job at this juncture of our economy. Look at the way he has run his campaign, made his VP selection et al. and we will always love him but....
This country needs a new direction, one that works for the middle class.
Vote OBAMA/BIDEN and help transform this nation to its glorious days.
Posted by: GodBlessUSA | Nov 4, 2008 12:29:34 PM
The only way Mc Cain gets in is by fraud. You can't wipe a nine point lead away in a couple of days.
President Obama!
Posted by: Jim Rousch | Nov 4, 2008 1:43:43 PM
To poster who said "Obama stays true to Christian beliefs,"
Why then, does he support abortion and didn't oppose partial birth abortion? The right to life is a fundamental, non-negotiable issue in the Christian faith. Supporting abortion rights is not a Christian value. You don't kill babies. Period.
Posted by: Anony | Nov 4, 2008 2:14:12 PM
"Property is the fruit of labor... property is desirable... is a positive good in the world. That some should be rich shows that others may become rich, and hence is just encouragement to industry and enterprise. Let not him who is houseless pull down the house of another; but let him labor diligently and build one for himself, thus by example assuring that his own shall be safe from violence when built." Abraham Lincoln
Hopefully Senator Obama will learn this one day. Senator McCain understands this. Go Senator McCain!
Posted by: Walt Bates | Nov 4, 2008 2:25:47 PM
I too received one of those school questionaires, just like 'Vote Your Faith' Michelle received. When my children asked me why I am a Democrat, I responded that I am not. I explained that I had simply marked the 'Democrat' party-affiliation box when I registered to vote. I explained that I am not a Republican nor an Independent. I am an American. That's what I told them. I explained to my children that I always vote for whomever I believe can do the job as a REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PEOPLE. I explained to my children that the most dangerous politicians are those whom, in their official capacity as a representative of the people, vote the 'party line' in legislative issues. Those politicians are not representing their constituants-- instead they are representing a small group of greedy power mongers (the party bosses). I described how, as a Democrat, I had voted for Jimmy Carter(D), then Ronald Reagan(R), then Ronald Reagan(D) again, then George Bush Sr.(R), then Bill Clinton(D), then Bill Clinton(D) again, then George Bush Jr.(W), then Al Gore(D), and now Barack Obama(D). I explained to my children that the most dangerous voters are those who vote a straight-party ticket. There has NEVER been a major election - Federal or State - where ALL of the Democrats were the 'right' people, nor where ALL the Republicans were the 'right' people for each job. My children nodded in understanding. I felt I had done a good job, teaching and instructing my children, rather than being in some mental fog where my children were put in a position of having to teach me. I knew I had followed the wise words of Solomon, who said, "Train up a child in the way he should go, and when he is old he will not depart from it" (Proverbs 22:6). As for the questions on the questionaire, I failed all of them and was deemed a 'Democrat' simply because I answered 'NO' to each question (a 'YES' would make you a 'Republican'). The questions were: (1) Do you like war? (2) Is it okay for the US start an illegal war of agression? (3) If the terrorists are in country 'A', is it okay to later invade country 'B' under false pretenses just because we don't like the leader of country 'B'? (4) Is it okay to say we are fighting for 'Freedom', when that is not the real reason? (5) Is torture of prisoners okay as long as it is US doing it? (6) Do less rights and less privacy equal More Freedom? (7) If you can't fool the people into handing over their Social Security payroll deductions to Wall Street every paycheck, is it okay to let Wall Street feign Bankruptcy and then hand more than $700 Billion in citizens' hard-earned money directly to the rich Bankers instead? (8) Turning over a foreign conquered country's oil production to your rich US & UK oil buddies is okay because the conquered deserve nothing. (9) The North Vietnamese torturers of John McCain were very honorable and deserved the war-medals they won because it is okay to torture prisoners if it 'might' save your countrymen's lives. (10) The Nazi torturers of captured WWII French Underground Freedom-Fighters were very honorable and deserved the war-medals they won because it is okay to torture prisoners if it 'might' save your countrymen's lives.
Posted by: Joe Hepperle | Nov 4, 2008 3:46:06 PM
I voted with my intelligence! While I consider myself, wordly, bright, and articulate, I REALLY WANT THOSE WHO WILL REPRESENT ME, TO BE EVEN BETTER!
That would only be Obama/ Biden!
I don't want a hockey mom, joe six-pack, FIRST DUDE, representing me here or in the world court!
McCain ran a filthy, unintelligent, didn't know what he was for, campaign. Palin, is not quite sure what the role of a VP is!
I CERTAINLY HOPE THAT BRAINS WIN OVER STUPIDITY!!!
Posted by: LYNDA in CT | Nov 4, 2008 6:13:58 PM
I heard something unusual today.
This evening we are expecting high winds across the nation.
Any Idea?
I do, it is the "Winds of Change" coming to blow all the filth away that these damned Republicans have bestowed up us!!
Posted by: MSR | Nov 4, 2008 6:22:33 PM
MSR: you said it all... the winds of change are going to correct the stolen election of 2000. Oh How I wonder how much better off we would be, without the federalists dismantling the constitution.
Posted by: MCsame | Nov 4, 2008 7:35:09 PM
How can you predict a state when you only he 3% or 15% of the districts reporting???
Posted by: Brent | Nov 4, 2008 9:44:44 PM
Well when you can already see what the democrats have done for this country, you will only see a further downfall of our country.
When we the media get it right that an African-American is someone who is born in Africa and moves to America and gains citizenship. An African-American is not someone who was born in an American hospital and has only lived here in American. I do not go around calling myself an Irish-English-Polish-American. I call myself an American.
Posted by: Me | Nov 4, 2008 9:53:26 PM
ABC stated that race was much less a factor than age (according to what polls are saying). That is ridiculous! No white person is going to admit that race did or did not have a role in his/her vote. People will talk about age but no one wants to take the chance of looking racist- so no one is admitting the truth.
Posted by: Jay | Nov 4, 2008 10:01:36 PM
I'm happy to see that Obama is the projected winner in NM...but it looks like McCain has 60% of that vote, no?
Posted by: Laurie | Nov 4, 2008 10:06:45 PM
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