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The Flip States

Our assistant polling director, Peyton Craighill, has drilled into the exit poll data to examine the 2008 flip states – those that went for George W. Bush in 2004 but for Barack Obama this year. As we’ve seen nationally, age,...

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November 26, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (5)

Socrates in Jeopardyland

Get a hard seat, a bright light, and ponder these questions: 13. Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, and Aquinas would concur that: a. all moral and political truth is relative to one’s time and place b. moral ideas are best explained as...

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November 20, 2008 in Problem Polls | Permalink | User Comments (17)

Race Revisited

Running through the exit poll data for a presentation this weekend led me to another way to approach the issue of race in the presidential election – one that, as it comes out, underscores the notion that it mattered less...

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November 19, 2008 in Race | Permalink | User Comments (16)

The Gay Marriage Vote

When Californians voted by 52-48 percent for a gay marriage ban Nov. 4, it wasn’t the first time: A similar measure passed by 61-39 percent in 2000, then was rejected by the state’s courts. The new version bypassed the courts...

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November 19, 2008 in Social Issues | Permalink | User Comments (27)

Ideological Underpinnings

Republicans pondering their fate and future have noted that while there was a partisan shift in voter turnout this year, there wasn’t an ideological one: Conservatives still outnumber liberals by 50 percent. It’s true – but the comfort may be,...

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November 11, 2008 in Partisanship/Party ID | Permalink | User Comments (10)

The Key, or the Chimera?

(See end of post for afternoon addition.) One of the items that prompted my post on the chimera of perfect polls was a Fox News piece quoting Brian Schaffner, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts. I found...

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November 10, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (3)

Work, Widgets and Perfect Polls

The lists of “best pre-election polls” and the news releases trumpeting polling perfection are starting to roll in. They’re an exercise in vacuity of the highest order. And computed foolishly, as well. The problem is not just in the silliness...

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November 6, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (8)

Is it Transformational?

The key question of the 2008 presidential election is whether it represents just a change in administration – or a change in our politics. Is it a reactive election like 1992, or a transformational one like the New Deal, the...

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November 5, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (54)

Final Tracking

With our last night of interviewing complete we’re ending our ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll with our final horse race estimate unchanged at 53-44 percent, Obama-McCain. That’s among 2,304 likely voters interviewed Friday through Monday. We’ve interviewed a total of...

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November 4, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (43)

Obama Matches his Best, Boosted by Economic Woe

Barack Obama, closing strongly in the campaign’s final weekend, matched his best advantage over John McCain to date in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Economic concerns are pushing his support beyond the Democratic base to unusual levels in...

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November 2, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (521)