The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Movable Voters Dwindle
November 01, 2008 4:59 PM
Persuadable voters have dwindled in the closing days of the presidential election: Nearly a quarter of likely voters report that they’ve already cast their ballots, and, among the rest, 93 percent say their minds are definitely made up.
That underscores the peril for John McCain, trailing Barack Obama in vote preference with relatively few minds left to change. The dearth of movable voters marks the final shift from persuasion to turnout – an effort, by each side, to get its voters to vote.
Click here for a PDF of the analysis with questions.
On that question the game’s been changed by early voting. Twenty-four percent of likely voters in this ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll say they’ve already voted, compared with a total early or absentee vote of about 22 percent in 2004 and 15 percent in 2000. And there’s apparently more to come: An additional 14 percent say they still plan to vote early or absentee – though their time is running short.
Among the remaining movables, meantime, the pickings are slim. Excluding those who’ve already voted, just 7 percent of likely voters say they’re either entirely undecided or may yet change their choice – and half say in fact it’s pretty unlikely they’ll change their minds. Movables have shrunk from 30 percent at the start of the campaign in May to 26 percent before the conventions, 19 percent after and on to its single-digit level now.
Obama, meanwhile, continues a steady lead in vote preference, built in no small part on the preference of those early voters. Overall, among all likely voters, Obama continues to lead McCain by 53-44 percent in ABC/Post interviews the past four nights, unchanged from yesterday. Early voters favor Obama by a broader 59-40 percent.
Still-movable voters divide about evenly, 36-33 percent, with the rest fully undecided.
LIBERAL? – McCain’s challenges in moving the electorate are demonstrated by likely voters’ views of the candidates’ political ideologies. McCain’s regularly been portraying Obama as too liberal, and 39 percent agree. But that’s unchanged since June. And with just 3 percent calling Obama too conservative, that leaves a comfortable 56 percent who say he’s “about right” ideologically.
It’s a measure on which McCain himself has more trouble. Forty-one percent call him too conservative, as many as say the opposite of Obama. But an additional 13 percent call McCain too liberal – leaving fewer, 42 percent, who say he’s about right ideologically.
As in many such measures partisan and ideological divisions are deep. But just 44 percent of independents and 36 percent of moderates call McCain about right in terms of his ideology, compared with 52 and 65 percent, respectively, for Obama.
Among white likely voters, 48 percent say McCain’s about right ideologically – but as many in this group, 49 percent, say the same of Obama. And among white Catholics, a swing group in past elections, 49 percent say McCain’s about right – 53 percent, Obama.
In a glimmer for McCain, there has been a shift among white middle class voters in the last 10 days – a 9-point rise in the number calling Obama too liberal, from 46 percent to 55 percent. But that’s been counteracted by improvement for Obama among other whites.
VOTE GROUPS – In vote preferences, middle-class whites currently divide by 54-44 percent in McCain’s favor – a group George W. Bush won by a much broader 24-point margin, 62-38 percent, in 2004. And among all whites, McCain’s scant 5-point edge compares to Bush’s 17-point margin four years ago.
White Catholics, a swing group in the last eight presidential elections, are dividing essentially evenly, 50-49 percent, Obama-McCain. But that 50 percent is Obama’s best in this group since July, and he’s also running evenly with McCain among mainline or non-evangelical white Protestants. Bush in 2004 won white Catholics by 13 points, mainline white Protestants by 11.
Obama meanwhile has near-unanimous support from blacks, 97 percent, and a nearly a 3-1 advantage among Hispanic likely voters. While turnout may be up for all groups, this poll does not indicate disproportionately higher turnout by blacks; they account for 11 percent of likely voters, the same as in 2004.
Nor does ABC/Post tracking data indicate disproportionately higher turnout among young voters, those under age 30, who accounted for 17 percent of likely voters in 2004. They remain Obama’s best group, favoring him by 2-1; at the other end of age spectrum, seniors divide about evenly, 49-47 percent.
In terms of party affiliation, the gap between Democrats and Republicans among likely voters has reached 10 points, matching its average among all Americans in ABC/Post polls this year – and up from an equal Democratic-Republican split in partisan allegiance in 2003. It’s that increased Democratic advantage in partisanship that Obama’s looking to carry him through next Tuesday, and that McCain seeks to whittle down.
ECONOMY/ISSUES – Economy continues to be the driving force in voter preferences. Fifty-one percent call it the single most important issue in their vote, and those economy voters favor Obama by 60-37 percent; those who cite all other issues combined split 51-46 percent, McCain-Obama.
The strength of the economy vote shows across population groups. Whites who call the economy their top issue favor Obama by 53-45 percent; those who pick other issues prefer McCain, 58-40 percent. (As noted yesterday, there’s a similar effect among white men, usually a strongly Republican group.) Independents who are voting chiefly on the economy favor Obama by 56-41 percent; other independents, 53-42 for McCain.
It’s similar among married women, white women and white Catholics – all potential swing groups, Obama leads among those most concerned with the economy, McCain among those focused on other issues. There’s even an effect among Republicans: while Obama’s support from those not mainly concerned with the economy is 7 percent, among Republican economy voters it nearly triples, albeit just to 19 percent.
METHODOLOGY – Interviews for this ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll were conducted by telephone Oct. 28-31, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,896 likely voters, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a 2.5-point error margin for the full sample. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
November 1, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (500)
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Well McCain has one bright spot, Cheney appeared from the Dark Side to endorse the McCain/Palin ticket...OH WAIT!!! That's not the kind of endorsement McCain really wants right now is it. Oh well!! ;-)
Posted by: francheska ;-) | Nov 1, 2008 6:10:38 PM
No offence to you republicans, but McCain sucks! He has voted with Bush over 90% of the time. He is like a Bush clone. Bush has put us in TRILLIONS of debt. Economists say McCain’s plan will add $3.4 trillion to the national debt. Barck Obama's plan are WAY better than John McCain's.
Posted by: Tara | Nov 1, 2008 6:10:54 PM
Why is Barack Obama always putting Joe Biden his running mate in a peculiar and awkward position.
Joe probably feels like a contortionist.
Barrack Obama stated that the reason he did not join the military service was that the United States was not at war at the time when he was eligible to serve and most people join.
Barack Obama knows that Joe Biden did not join the military service during the peak of the Vietnam War because of an asthma condition that was not diagnosed until his teenage years.
Joe Biden had horribly bad luck, ninety percent of all children are diagnosed with asthma before age six but Joe Biden was unlucky enough to be in the ten percent group of children who acquire asthma after age six and became asthmatic when he was a teenager.
Overcoming his bad luck and his asthma, Joe Biden was able to become a star highschool football wide receiver and also play highschool baseball.
Joe Biden also went on to play college football three years with the University of Delaware.
After five student deferments while he attended college and law school, his teenage asthma finally came to the attention of his local Selective Service Board and he missed the opportunity to serve his country during the peak of the Vietnam War as an officer.
But for his bad luck with his teenage asthma diagnosis, Joe Biden could have gone in and served his country honorably as a officer and a gentleman and perhaps as a Judge Advocate Law Officer similar to his son.
Barack Obama should be kinder to his running mate and not emphasize that he did not serve because the country was not at war in contrast to Joe Biden who did not serve while the country was at war.
As President, John McCain who did serve and is a real warrior with wartime experience will make a better commander in chief than either Barack Obama or Joe Biden.
Vote John McCain!!!! Vote John McCain!!!! Vote John McCain!!!!
Posted by: JohnMcCainsupporter | Nov 1, 2008 6:11:09 PM
Everyone should lay off this Cindy Williams person... not only did McCain run the worst campaign in political history, but he has single-handedly helped to bring down the GOP as we know it because of his pick of SheBush (Palin) as his running mate. It can't be easy for a neocon to watch their party fall apart before the world's eyes... so let's not pick on her. She's typing in CAPS which is always a sign of anger and desperation.
Posted by: TDLACA | Nov 1, 2008 6:14:07 PM
Obama has spent so much more money than Mccain and yet obama is losing the battle.
That tells me that true americans vote is not for sale. Obama can't buy us with promises of bread crumbs.
Silent majority speaks on nov 4 and MCCAIN/PALIN WINS.
GOD BLESS THE USA
Posted by: cindy williams | Nov 1, 2008 6:16:20 PM
JohnMcCainsupporter, ain't gonna happen this year. Sorry, this one's been done for months... and with three days left, well, let's just say the majority of the country is voting alongside Colin Powell.
Posted by: TDLACA | Nov 1, 2008 6:16:31 PM
Hey pick all you want..I'm one of those god fearing , gun clinging americans obama talked about.
Its okay, I can handle it. Let it fly.
Mccain/Palin wins nov by landslide
Posted by: cindy williams | Nov 1, 2008 6:18:35 PM
Didn't the Post just endorse John McCain? Of course their poll is going to show a narrow division between the two. And isn't in the best interest of the MSM in general to show the race is close? They sell more advertising that way than they would if they were to announce a blow out before the election.
Posted by: foxisms | Nov 1, 2008 6:18:50 PM
Cindy, that "silent majority" is definitely silent... um, just curious, what do you base your "Obama is losing the battle" statement on? You obviously have a computer and can check stats and facts? Or have you been dipping into Cindy McCain's meds again? Rush Limbaugh's? Ted Haggard's?
Posted by: TDLACA | Nov 1, 2008 6:19:03 PM
How is Obama losing, Cindy? 53-44, and 93% minds are made up.
Posted by: YesWeCan | Nov 1, 2008 6:19:38 PM
If the 2 Candidates' resume's were switched......and McCain had the Ayers thing, the Acorn thing, the Resko thing, the Terrorist ties, the ONly 180 days in the Senate Working (answering "present" instead of yea or no), or had a Ranting/spewing hate Preacher that only spoke positive for One group of people and negatively for other types..........THE OBAMA People Still Wouldn't Vote for McCain, AS They ARE NOT VOTING ON THE CHARACTER OR RECORD OR ISSUES........They want Obama for an Obvious reason......it's glaringly obvious! Why ELse Would Any Educated Person Vote for the LEAST Qualified Candidate? Like I said......They just want Obama.......REGARDLESS of Anything! Obama should have had the Slogan: Obama.....Regardless!
I'm exercising my right to vote in a responsible manner......for the Most qualified in every way candidate.....honest and a hero......John McCain.....! I want my Country to get well soon!
Posted by: November | Nov 1, 2008 6:20:39 PM
Lets see a great and charismatic leader rises to power promising to 'free the wealth of the rich and distribute it to the poor' he takes over the country and it falls into abject poverty as not letting anyone but the government in your country be rich means EVERYONE will be poor. Do you like the sound of "the United States of Cuba" where no one can afford a new car even never mind a mortgage? Am I talking about Fidel Castro or Barack Hussein Obama? Think hard about your vote. Vote McCain.
Posted by: republican_paulie | Nov 1, 2008 6:21:04 PM
>>"I'm one of those god fearing , gun clinging americans obama talked about."<< Ah, gotcha... so you are one of the neocons I want to thank... you tried to win through spreading fear and baseless lies... and as such, folks like you have helped kill any chances McCain had. As an Obama supporter I say keep up the good work. But you do understand that Palin will be impeached upon her return to Alaska after the GOP's devastating loss on Tuesday? Three more days...
Posted by: TDLACA | Nov 1, 2008 6:22:14 PM
OBAMA'S HIGHER TAXES ON THE SMALL BUSINESSES PLUS INSURANCE WILL CAUSE THEM TO LAY OFF PEOPLE, TO MAKE UP FOR THE EXTRA COSTS AND THEY WILL HAVE TO RAISE THE PRICES OF THEIR GOODS.
CORPORATIONS WILL DO THE SAME AND MAY MOVE THEIR BUSINESSES
OUT OF THE COUNTRY, LEAVING MANY OUT OF WORK. MANY DON'T REALIZE THAT THIS WILL EFFECT THEM. THEY NEED TO KNOW.
HE WANTS TO BRING BACK DEATH, INHERITANCE TAX, MARRIAGE TAX
HIGHER TAXES ON DIVIDENDS, INTEREST AND CAPITAL GAINS
THE PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW THAT IF THEY SELL THEIR HOMES ETC
THEY WILL HAVE TO PAY HIGHER CAPITAL GAINS TAX ON THE SALE
LEAVING THEM WITH A LOT LESS THEN WHAT THEY WOULD HAVE IF OBAMA DIDN'T RAISE IT. MOST PEOPLE DON'T KNOW WHAT CAPITAL GAINS TAX IS.
401 KS, INVESTMENTS ALL WILL BE TAXED HIGHER.
PEOPLE I SPOKE TO, WHO DIDN'T KNOW HOW THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE OR WERE THINKING OF VOTING FOR OBAMA, AFTER HEARING THEY WOULD BE EFFECTED BY ALL OF THE ABOVE, SAID NO NO TO OBAMA
WANT TO LIVE IN A SOCIALIST STATE VOTE FOR OBAMA
WANT TO LIVE IN THE FREE REPUBLIC THIS COUNTRY WAS FOUNDED ON
VOTE FOR McCAIN
Posted by: JB | Nov 1, 2008 6:22:21 PM
I imagine AIR FORCE ONE will be transformed into SOULPLANE, the Presidential limo will be pimped out, and the White House will be painted black. Once the vote is safe for Barack he can bring out his bling and gold teeth and throw gang signs to his peeps.
Posted by: GHETTOPREZ | Nov 1, 2008 6:23:01 PM
Barack Obama has offered a detailed plan to get America’s economy back on track, by creating new jobs and easing the burden on hardworking Americans by offering middle-class tax cuts three times the size of McCain’s.
John McCain’s economic policy is the same as George Bush’s. It ignores middle class Americans, giving $200 billion in tax cuts to corporations, including $4 billion in tax breaks to Big Oil, while leaving over 100 million middle-class Americans with no relief. Economists say McCain’s plan will add $3.4 trillion to the national debt
Barack Obama’s health care plan will provide accessible, affordable coverage for all, and it will reduce health care costs for families.
John McCain’s health plan would tax health benefits for the first time ever — imposing a trillion tax increase on working families and leaving millions without heath care.
I'm not voting for Obama because he's younger and black. (he's arabic anyways) I'm voting for him because his plans are way better than McCain's.
Posted by: Tara | Nov 1, 2008 6:23:50 PM
cindy williams
I admire your optimism, but it seems that many millions of Americans disagree with your assessment of Obama. That's OK. That is why we have a democracy.
Posted by: jock59801 | Nov 1, 2008 6:24:35 PM
I'd love to stay and read all the neocon UPPERCASE messages, but I'm off to do my two hour Obama volunteer work at the local headquarters... Our man Obama has this one finished. Landslide victory on Tuesday... guaranteed. Goodnight all...
Posted by: TDLACA | Nov 1, 2008 6:25:33 PM
Here's what this race looks like:
Obama = followers...regardles of Non-Glowing Past
McCain = Tried&True Americans Who Understand the issues and want the best for the COUNTRY!
Posted by: November | Nov 1, 2008 6:26:11 PM
.........More like a MUDSLIDE If Obama wins.......not a landslide!
Posted by: November | Nov 1, 2008 6:28:02 PM
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