The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Obama Matches his Best, Boosted by Economic Woe
November 02, 2008 5:00 PM
Barack Obama, closing strongly in the campaign’s final weekend, matched his best advantage over John McCain to date in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Economic concerns are pushing his support beyond the Democratic base to unusual levels in the political center and even among more traditionally Republican groups.
Beyond his advantage on the economy and taxes, Obama’s being boosted by sustained unusually high levels of enthusiasm among his supporters, and by his ability to remain competitive with McCain in trust to handle a crisis – cutting to the “experience” question that has been Obama’s greatest risk.
Click here for PDF of analysis with questions.
Overall, 54 percent of likely voters support Obama, 43 percent McCain in ABC/Post interviews the past four nights, exactly where the race was a week and a half ago.
Support for the candidates has run in a narrow band for weeks. Obama’s received 52 to 54 percent support in every ABC/Post poll since Oct. 11; McCain’s been between 43 and 45 percent in that same period. Obama, moreover, hasn’t gone below 50 percent support, nor McCain above 46 percent, since just after the Republican convention.
Part of Obama’s advantage comes from his campaign’s ability to turn out early voters; 27 percent say they’ve already cast their ballots, a strongly pro-Obama group, 59-40 percent. Among first-time voters, moreover, Obama has a nearly 2-1 advantage; many of them are young, and young voters are his strongest supporters.
Overall, 67 percent of Obama’s supporters are very enthusiastic about his campaign, while just 41 percent of McCain’s supporters share that level of enthusiasm for their choice. For McCain that’s 7 points below his post-convention best; Obama is 4 points off his peak for enthusiasm, just over a week ago.
Obama’s most fundamental advantage is the economy; it’s far and away the top voting issue and he leads McCain by 55-40 percent in trust to handle it, a lead that McCain had narrowed slightly to 52-43 percent early last week. Obama’s also held a steady lead, now 52-41 percent, in trust to handle taxes, a chief target of McCain’s.
On experience, 56 percent see Obama as a “safe” choice for president, despite McCain’s suggestions to the opposite. Meanwhile slightly fewer, 51 percent, see McCain as a safe choice.
Among groups, Obama’s 54 percent support among men is his best this year, as his 46 percent among white men, customarily a more Republican voting group. In these and many other groups, Obama’s support is markedly higher among those who cite the economy as the top issue in their vote, underscoring its unusual strength in vote choices this year.
November 2, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (521)
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The Center for Responsive Politics calculates that, by Election Day, $2.4 billion will have been spent on presidential campaigns since January 2007, and an additional $2.9 billion will have been spent on 435 House and 35 Senate contests.
This $5.3 billion is a billion less than Americans will spend this year on potato chips.
Posted by: Reason | Nov 2, 2008 5:19:06 PM
McCain - 281
Obama - 257
Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania all go McCain/Palin!!!!
IDP/TIPP
Obama 46.7
McCain 44.6
THE MAC IS BACK!!!!!!
This is going to be FUN!
Posted by: Theallknowing | Nov 2, 2008 5:19:14 PM
Theallknowing...you are delusional.
Posted by: Jake | Nov 2, 2008 5:29:59 PM
We are still waiting for Palin to release her medical records like she promised. Is this the way they keep their promises? How can anyone trust their word when they won't do what they promise. What are you hiding Palin? All this looks like is that you have something to hide that will expose you and the truth about who you really are.
Posted by: Jake | Nov 2, 2008 5:32:45 PM
I was just kidding...I don't know anything!!
Posted by: Theallknowing | Nov 2, 2008 5:33:34 PM
THE MAC IS WHACK!!!!!!
Posted by: JR | Nov 2, 2008 5:33:51 PM
Theallknowing...I think you really need to go buy yourself a 12-pack. A 6-pack 'aint gonna do it for ya on Tuesday night! LOL
Posted by: repubforobama | Nov 2, 2008 5:33:54 PM
Hey Therealknowing -
Get back to work. Your presidency lasts until January 19th. You shouldn't be drinking and playing around on that oval office computer on a Sunday.
Posted by: clifton | Nov 2, 2008 5:34:58 PM
This election has always been about America's total rejection of the failed Bush policies and ultra right wing division.
The conclusion was never in doubt... an overwhelming Democratic win.
All that money spent, but the result was never in doubt.
Obama 379 electoral votes.
Posted by: Gus | Nov 2, 2008 5:34:59 PM
Its hard to find a more revered and loved American than Andy Griffith. When I think of a true American I think of him. Andy Griffith stands for truth and wisdom, and has been considered a faithful veteran, and someone who would never support communism. Andy grew up when the world was under attack by nationalism, and then he was a part of our national fight against communism. Often during his show, The Andy Griffith Show he would teach us lessons on right and wrong, and what the true American way is. His son in the show, famed director Ron Howard is also considered an American icon, and someone you can trust to do the right thing for America. Ron and Andy have put their support behind Barack Obama for President, because they believe he represents the BEST for America. They would NEVER support someone who didnt love this country as much as they do, nor would they support someone who was a threat to us all. Lets all be like Andy Griffith and vote for Barack Obama! Lets make America the America that Andy Griffith believes in! Obama/Biden, as American as apple pie!
Posted by: Fairfax | Nov 2, 2008 5:36:23 PM
Wednesday news next week: McBush sulks to depression after ordering Mayor Putin to disappear back in the wilderness.
Posted by: morningcalm | Nov 2, 2008 5:37:09 PM
McCain fans and the McCain campaign always find odd polls that show them ahead or winning.
Posted by: ObamaFever | Nov 2, 2008 5:37:38 PM
Obama! Obama! Obama! Dittoheads: Get back to your caves!
Posted by: Hallie | Nov 2, 2008 5:39:16 PM
Palin's medical records???? She's hiding the fact that her boob implants are democratic. LOL
Posted by: Brian | Nov 2, 2008 5:40:22 PM
as a legal immigrant now a us citizen I hope for universal health care, my entire family still live in England and don't have any complaints, also my friend in Canada whose entire family live in different parts have only good things to say about the health care up there. In 1968 I had a premature baby who spent three months in an incubator, I had major surgery and did not cost me a penny, here I would be filing bankruptcy. No one in England faces losing their home due to medical bills.tax payers here pay for uninsured to go to the emergency or they wait until their medical conditions are so severe it costs more to treat them then giving them prevention.
Posted by: rocky | Nov 2, 2008 5:42:34 PM
Obama needs to win Colorado and keep PA. He is doing a lot better right now. So.. John and Barbie can go pack their bags and join Alaska Independence Party ;))) They have a chance in this game..)))
Posted by: ghost | Nov 2, 2008 5:42:53 PM
Hey Mayor Putin, are you hiding inside the bird nest on top of your head your medical records? Are there abortion records in your medical records? At your young age, your reluctance to release copies of your medical records is appealing ans disturbing....
Posted by: morningcalm | Nov 2, 2008 5:44:23 PM
I believe deeply in karma in addition to karma sutra.
Posted by: Sutter197 | Nov 2, 2008 5:44:25 PM
This theallknowing character's in for a long eight yrs...
Obama/Biden '08/'12
Posted by: dem in chicago | Nov 2, 2008 5:45:32 PM
I think the time has come for loyal republicans to band together and spend every dollar avaiable in the RNC war chest on a massive media campaign to write in Sarah Palin as a replacement for Sen. Ted Stevens. This will provide her with the experience necessary to ultimately LEAD the Senate and reaffirm the statement that she is the most popular governor in the country. Hopefully this would squelch forever the notion that Alaskans can't see things like the lower 48.
Posted by: sirobx | Nov 2, 2008 5:48:40 PM
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