The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Obama Matches his Best, Boosted by Economic Woe
November 02, 2008 5:00 PM
Barack Obama, closing strongly in the campaign’s final weekend, matched his best advantage over John McCain to date in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Economic concerns are pushing his support beyond the Democratic base to unusual levels in the political center and even among more traditionally Republican groups.
Beyond his advantage on the economy and taxes, Obama’s being boosted by sustained unusually high levels of enthusiasm among his supporters, and by his ability to remain competitive with McCain in trust to handle a crisis – cutting to the “experience” question that has been Obama’s greatest risk.
Click here for PDF of analysis with questions.
Overall, 54 percent of likely voters support Obama, 43 percent McCain in ABC/Post interviews the past four nights, exactly where the race was a week and a half ago.
Support for the candidates has run in a narrow band for weeks. Obama’s received 52 to 54 percent support in every ABC/Post poll since Oct. 11; McCain’s been between 43 and 45 percent in that same period. Obama, moreover, hasn’t gone below 50 percent support, nor McCain above 46 percent, since just after the Republican convention.
Part of Obama’s advantage comes from his campaign’s ability to turn out early voters; 27 percent say they’ve already cast their ballots, a strongly pro-Obama group, 59-40 percent. Among first-time voters, moreover, Obama has a nearly 2-1 advantage; many of them are young, and young voters are his strongest supporters.
Overall, 67 percent of Obama’s supporters are very enthusiastic about his campaign, while just 41 percent of McCain’s supporters share that level of enthusiasm for their choice. For McCain that’s 7 points below his post-convention best; Obama is 4 points off his peak for enthusiasm, just over a week ago.
Obama’s most fundamental advantage is the economy; it’s far and away the top voting issue and he leads McCain by 55-40 percent in trust to handle it, a lead that McCain had narrowed slightly to 52-43 percent early last week. Obama’s also held a steady lead, now 52-41 percent, in trust to handle taxes, a chief target of McCain’s.
On experience, 56 percent see Obama as a “safe” choice for president, despite McCain’s suggestions to the opposite. Meanwhile slightly fewer, 51 percent, see McCain as a safe choice.
Among groups, Obama’s 54 percent support among men is his best this year, as his 46 percent among white men, customarily a more Republican voting group. In these and many other groups, Obama’s support is markedly higher among those who cite the economy as the top issue in their vote, underscoring its unusual strength in vote choices this year.
November 2, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (521)
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Brian, you are giving Mayor Putin too much credit when you said that her "boobs implants are democratic." She could have had other transplants.
Posted by: morningcalm | Nov 2, 2008 5:49:22 PM
Many comments on Fox by GOP pundits are barely disguised incitements to violence.
If the unthinkable happens they will have a lot to answer for.
Posted by: Dynamo | Nov 2, 2008 5:49:36 PM
I'm sure its gonna be a closer race. Obama's appeal is broad but it also has to be deep. I think North Carolina and Virginia and Florida are key. McCain has to win Florida, Ohio, and Penn, and that's just pure fantasy.
Posted by: rob | Nov 2, 2008 5:52:58 PM
Too true morningcalm. maybe it was a hemeroidectomy. LOL
Posted by: Brian | Nov 2, 2008 5:55:21 PM
Regarding the medical records... could it be the current Sara Heath Palin (Putin) was originally "Chuck!"
Posted by: Brian | Nov 2, 2008 5:57:36 PM
The end is sight. Obama will win by he bigest landslide ever! After all. he's running against McBush aand the Alaskan Barbie Doll. Did you hear her interview with the radio anouncer form Canada who called saying he was President Sarkosy of France? She bit on it hook, line and sinker. She sounded like a Political MORON!! You really get to her motivations when she sais she will
fro president in 8 years. What a battle, the Alaskan Barbie Doll vs Hillary Clinton the Bulldog from NY.
Posted by: savoymt | Nov 2, 2008 5:58:13 PM
Get used to saying President Obama! JOy! Joy! Joy! Happy! Happy!
Posted by: AJ | Nov 2, 2008 5:58:31 PM
Not even a summary medical report from Sarah Palin yet.
Posted by: jonathanw | Nov 2, 2008 5:58:50 PM
I can tell you why Sarah Palin didn't release the medical documents! Trig is not her baby, why else would she not release the records if there is nothing to hide.
Posted by: Orlando B. Fremont Ohio | Nov 2, 2008 6:00:22 PM
Fake Sarkozy to Palin: I can see Belgium from my house! My wife is so hot in bed! What a moron!
Posted by: AJ | Nov 2, 2008 6:00:30 PM
Hey the middle class is the reason rich people are rich, for years we have redirected wealth the to the wealthy and all of that is about to change. All regular middle class Americans want is a fare wage not the peanuts they have been giving us. We are tired of being slaves to the rich and powerful and the trickle down philosophy that has not worked for the poor and the middle class. You arrogant rich people want to call being fare, welfare for the middle class but you have the nerve to sale us the middle class American this BS corporate seven hundred billion dollar bailout package to save the rich. Bunch Of Hypocrites! This is the United States Of America, Not The United States Of The Rich and The Powerful Few!
Obama/Bidin
Posted by: Orlando B. Fremont Ohio | Nov 2, 2008 6:01:28 PM
Over the weekend in Virginia, bogus fliers with an authentic-looking commonwealth seal said fears of high voter turnout had prompted election officials to hold two elections - one on Tuesday for Republicans and another on Wednesday for Democrats.
In New Mexico, two Hispanic women filed a lawsuit last week claiming they were harassed by a private investigator working for a Republican lawyer who came to their homes and threatened to call immigration authorities, even though they are U.S. citizens.
In Pennsylvania, e-mails appeared linking Democrat Barack Obama to the Holocaust. "Jewish Americans cannot afford to make the wrong decision on Tuesday, Nov. 4.
In Pennsylvania leaflets taped to picnic benches at Drexel University, warning students that police would be at the polls on Tuesday to arrest would-be voters with prior criminal offenses.
In a Jewish neighborhood fliers were recently left claiming Obama was more sympathetic to Palestinians than to Israel, and showed a photograph of him speaking in Germany.
In Colorado and Virginia, people reported receiving calls that told them their registrations had expired and they would be arrested if they showed up to vote.
In Milwaukee, fliers went up advising people "if you've already voted in any election this year, you can't vote in the presidential election.
In Pennsylvania, a letter bearing what appeared to be the McCandless Township seal falsely proclaimed that in order to cut long voting lines, Republicans would cast ballots on Nov. 2 and Democrats would vote on Nov. 3.
yeah, they don't call it the "Grand Old Party" for nothing, deceitful hypocrites.
Posted by: JR | Nov 2, 2008 6:01:34 PM
you should listen to the audio where Obama says he will bankrupt every coal electric generating plant. THe SF Chronicle didn;t include that in the article but it is in the audio. So if you like higher electric bills you love his plan- and tell me that is not a higher tax.
http://media.newsbusters.org/ stories/hid den-audio-obama-tells-sf-ch ronicle-he-wi ll-bankrupt-coal-industry .html?q=blogs/p -j-gladnick/2008/11/02/ hidden-audio-obam a-tells-sf-chronicle- he-will-bankrupt-co al-industry Hidden Audio: Obama Tells SF Chronicle He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry
Posted by: jschmidt | Nov 2, 2008 6:02:05 PM
Oh boy! America going to go down hill
now, thanks to some of you idiots out
their voting for a low life such as
Obslima!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't think he even knows what the hell is in his blood.
World war 3 wait and see...........
Posted by: Joey | Nov 2, 2008 6:03:52 PM
How can you bankrupt a coal company? Coal is an energy source you dig out of the ground. Most profitable job in the world, unless you cook the books.
Posted by: rob | Nov 2, 2008 6:05:54 PM
You know being a Ind for Obama I have no problem people not voting for him due to policy or another valid reason. But for all you backward tail rednecks that wont vote for him because of prejudice or because you think he is a Muslim, (Which shouldnt matter in the US) or because you are so dumb as to believe one of the other lies. I feel very sorry for you as you must live in a little dumb bubble and must miss so much in life. I also feel bad for Obama and his family that he and other had to listen to your slander and name calling from day one.
Posted by: CW | Nov 2, 2008 6:06:28 PM
It is not a matter of who, but a matter of how much. Any where from 311 to 353.
national 51%
Posted by: green cottonham | Nov 2, 2008 6:07:37 PM
I think there are a lot of people looking forward to a landslide (including me!).
In hopes of being the first to call it, all the major news outlets seem focused on the GOTV efforts, the layout of the election map, how much each campaign is spending and where etc...
OK, what I should say is all the major national news outlets *except* one. One website features front and center, an image of Jeremiah Wright. "Most trusted name in news" my a$$.
Maybe one of you can answer this for me... Why is CNN featuring McCain's negative campaign ad about Jeremiah Wright as its headline story 2 days before the election? Not even Fox is stooping low enough to use their news site as a platform for the one line of attack that even McCain shied away from.
Unless CNN plans to put up an article on McCain’s $400,000 payment to Rasheed Khalidi or McCain and Pastor John Hagee, I think FOX news might have a little competition for "Most Disgusting Name in News." ;)
Posted by: Kay | Nov 2, 2008 6:07:44 PM
I'm also surprised that there hasn't been more of a fuss about Palin's refusal to produce her medical records. She promised to do so and now is refusing. She's the only one who seems hesitant to make her health record public. I wonder why?
Posted by: Pete | Nov 2, 2008 6:08:30 PM
You know, I could really care less about Palin's medical records. In fact, she could just release a one-page statement from her doctor saying she is healthy. Its just that....she said she was going to release them. Why would she say that? She didn't have to. It does make you wonder a)about her medical records and b) about overpromising and underdelivering...
Posted by: juju | Nov 2, 2008 6:08:55 PM
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