The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Race Revisited
November 19, 2008 3:23 PM
Running through the exit poll data for a presentation this weekend led me to another way to approach the issue of race in the presidential election – one that, as it comes out, underscores the notion that it mattered less than you might have thought.
Few whites, 7 percent, said race was an important factor in their vote; those who said so favored John McCain by a 2-1 margin, 66-33 percent. That compares to a 58-40 percent McCain advantage among the additional 10 percent who called race a minor factor, and 53-44 percent among the 82 percent of whites who said it wasn’t a factor at all.
So who are these racially motivated white McCain supporters?
Compared with other whites (see table below), those who called race at least somewhat of a factor are slightly more apt to be rural or small town residents, a bit more apt to be men, 10 points more likely to be Southerners and evangelicals and 13 points more likely to identify themselves as conservatives.
But there’s one far bigger difference: Whites who say race was a factor in their choice, and who voted for McCain, are almost twice as likely as other whites to be Republicans – 67 percent, compared with 35 percent of others. And being a Republican, as it happens, is the single best predictor of voting for McCain – 91 percent of white Republicans did so.
Whites, race a factor, Other
supported McCain whites
Small town/rural 26% 21%
Men 54 47
Southerners 40 30
Evangelicals 44 34
Conservatives 48 35
Republicans 67 35
(The differences listed above are very similar when we look at the smaller group of whites who called race not just a factor, but an important one.)
Since the standout attribute of whites who called race a factor is that they’re very disproportionately Republicans, there’d seem to be a good chance that their partisanship - rather than the race factor – accounts for the difference in their vote preference. To test it in a regression analysis all we need is the exit poll dataset, which we’re awaiting. More to come.
It’s also been noted pretty widely that the white vote was disproportionately for McCain in just one region, the South. Whites there voted 69-30 percent in McCain’s favor, vs. an even, 49-49 percent split between McCain and Barack Obama among whites in the rest of the country. But that’s not unusual: Southern whites went for George W. Bush by nearly identical margins, 70-29 percent in 2004 and 67-31 percent in 2000. Bill Clinton, himself a Southern white, did better, but still lost them, by 15 and 20 points, in his elections. And Democrats were hammered in this group in 1980-1988. That makes it hard to blame racism, and easier to conclude that a lot of Southern whites just don’t like Democrats, particularly Northern Democrats. (Indeed, 46 percent of Southern white voters this year were Republicans, as opposed to 36 percent of whites in the rest of the country.)
Note, too, that Southern whites were no more apt than whites elsewhere to call race a factor in their vote. And in fact there was a bigger pro-McCain effect among racially motivated white voters in the East and Midwest than in the South.
Whites – McCain vote
Race a factor Not a factor
All 61% 53%
East 57 44
Midwest 60 49
South 71 66
West 48 49
I’d add one other observation; at a presentation I attended last week a speaker referred to race-a-factor, pro-McCain white voters as “intolerant.” I’m not at all sure I agree. There is such a thing as affinity voting; indeed blacks were twice as apt as whites to call race an important factor in their vote. Blacks can have an affinity for Obama, as can whites for McCain, without intolerance coming into it.
Ultimately, as I blogged just after the election, one of the most fascinating results is the fact that Obama could lose whites by 12 points and still be elected president by a comfortable margin. That’s a testament to the nation’s changing demographic profile, and another indication that racial intolerance, to the extent it did exist on Nov. 4, was marginalized.
November 19, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (16)
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Our Greatest Leader is African American, not white, not black. And, he is a Christian - as he made certain that you know it.
Posted by: fat cat | Nov 19, 2008 3:58:02 PM
It does not surprise me at all, the south, where I lived for some years, was never shy about "race." They did not like Jews, Blacks, and Northerners.
Obama, simply, putting everything aside, was the best man for the job!
Posted by: LYNDA in CT | Nov 19, 2008 4:05:04 PM
LYNDA in CT Did you not read this part?
Note, too, that Southern whites were no more apt than whites elsewhere to call race a factor in their vote. And in fact there was a bigger pro-McCain effect among racially motivated white voters in the East and Midwest than in the South.
Posted by: Real Story | Nov 19, 2008 4:32:04 PM
Best part of this article.
"Indeed blacks were twice as apt as whites to call race an important factor in their vote. Blacks can have an affinity for Obama, as can whites for McCain, without intolerance coming into it."
If blacks are not considered racist for voting by color why are whites?
Posted by: Real Story | Nov 19, 2008 4:44:21 PM
To real story,
Whay's your point?
My comment was a general one and I stand by it. I overheard many disparaging comments about those three groups. And while visiting of late, noted, nothing had changed.
Posted by: LYNDA in CT | Nov 19, 2008 5:08:02 PM
For me race was not the issue. It was Obama's statement of loyality to a woman's right to choose to murder her baby. This is completely against his faith in Jesus. He has chosen to shake his fist in the face of God.
This is why I respect President George W. Bush. he has stood firm on the side of the babies that have no defense against their executions by abortion. President Bush, who stands by his convictions and his God has fought for the lives of these babies. he is a good man that honors God.
Obama has chosen wrongly on this issue. He has chosen to be a person who only cares about popularity rather than saving the babies from their death sentences.
Planned parenthood is the promoter of abortion. (infanticide is what abortion and stem cell research using human embryos should be called).
Posted by: Patricia Spillman | Nov 19, 2008 8:11:02 PM
These polls are really not very acurate since most whites would do not feel comfortable really answering the question about race truthfully. Instead of trying to figure out if race was a factor, Mr. Langer, let's figure out why we cannot talk about it! It seems that in many cases the 'Reverse Bradley' was in play! That is truly something to 'blog' about...
Posted by: Sky | Nov 20, 2008 1:52:41 AM
It's interesting, that now, after the election, that race is talked about.
Better late than never.
Race was NEVER the factor, for many of us, it was the result of realizing WHO WAS THE BETTER PERSON TO LEAD!!! That, no doubt, was Barack Obama
Posted by: LYNDA in CT | Nov 20, 2008 12:03:21 PM
For Patricia Spillman
If Bush as you say "is a good man that honors God.", then why is he for capital punishment and pro-War. This is right out killing. It's legislature going against the Bible. Since Bush is a Christian he should leave judgement up to God.
In Pro-Choice(ers) defense, I don't think any sane human being is for abortion. I happen to be a Christian. I am pro-choice. I would NEVER abort my baby, I think it's wrong. But, I would never tell someone else that they couldnt do it. This is point of being pro-choice. Don't twist it. We don't condone abortion.
Posted by: American | Nov 20, 2008 5:08:10 PM
FUNNY, EVERY INDIAN, BLACK, ASIAN AND LATINO WAS LYNCHED FOR YEARS IN CERTAIN AREAS, BUT NOW PEOPLE SAY IT NEVER HAPPENED.
Posted by: CHUCK | Nov 22, 2008 1:15:32 AM
Wow, these statisics are really confusing. How on Earth can a radical Black man become President? Congratulations liberal Press.
Posted by: Michael Ray Thompson | Nov 23, 2008 5:59:35 PM
america might really come of age when a native american sits in the white house a real chief :0-)))
Posted by: trawlerman | Nov 24, 2008 12:59:35 AM
As always the south is left behind the rest of the world. Not surprised
Posted by: R | Nov 26, 2008 7:55:18 AM
Liberalism....the great savior of mankind-even when he does not deserve to be saved.
Conservatism...man's deathshroud.
Posted by: unholy33 | Nov 27, 2008 11:33:54 AM
racists in the South!? what a surprise! how is this news? and we all saw at the McCain-Palin "rallies" brought out in people---"kill him", "traitor", "muslim" (as if that were a bad thing). the republican party bows in fear to these fools. i think they realize now that racism is going to sink their party if it hasn't already.
Posted by: Paul Wall | Nov 29, 2008 9:00:28 PM
why is it not racists that all african-americans that voted for obama did so because of his color? he had no accomplishments that amounted to being president? I am republican and that is the reason I voted John McCain. If a black man ran for the Republican seat and was qualified, I would have no problem electing him. Not all whites are racists, but we all get that tag when the black people are just as bad if not worse. Why would you elect someone because of their color? The man has terrorist friends! Wake up people.
Posted by: wv | Dec 10, 2008 7:55:24 AM
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