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A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.

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The Gay Marriage Vote

November 19, 2008 10:23 AM

When Californians voted by 52-48 percent for a gay marriage ban Nov. 4, it wasn’t the first time: A similar measure passed by 61-39 percent in 2000, then was rejected by the state’s courts. The new version bypassed the courts by amending the state’s Constitution.

What changed in the two votes? Support for banning gay marriage dropped among most groups, producing the narrower margin. But it increased in one, African-Americans, and that contributed greatly to the measure’s success: Non-blacks voted 50-50 on the measure this year, while blacks backed it by a 40-point margin.

In the item below, Nik Bonovich, an election polling analyst here at the ABC News Polling Unit, dissects some of the changes in California’s vote on gay marriage from 2000 to 2008.

By Nik Bonovich

Perhaps the most notable change in the gay marriage vote was among blacks: While most other groups moved away from a ban on gay marriage, African-Americans moved toward it, voting 70-30 percent in favor this year, compared with 59-41 percent eight years ago.

Strikingly, blacks broadly favored the gay marriage ban despite their almost unanimous support for Barack Obama, who’d opposed the initiative, Proposition 8. Indeed, among non-black Obama voters in California, 74 percent opposed Prop. 8. Blacks were more aligned with John McCain’s voters, who favored it overwhelmingly, 84-16 percent.

The vote among blacks is not surprising: In a national ABC/Post poll in late 2007, blacks opposed gay civil unions by 58-36 percent. (Whites were in favor, 55-41.) In earlier polling we've done specifically on gay marriage, blacks have been even more broadly opposed, 66-31 percent - very similar to their latest vote in California.

Blacks pushed the measure ahead not only by their lopsided support, but also because, with Obama at the top of the ticket, they increased their share of the electorate to 10 percent, up from the usual 6 or 7 percent in the state.

Most other shifts were against the measure. Among whites, support for banning gay marriage dropped from 60 percent in 2000 to 49 percent this year; among Hispanics, from 63 percent to 53 percent. Support for the ban dropped among men from 64 percent in 2000 to 53 percent this year; among women, from 57 percent to 52 percent.

Young adults generally are more supportive of gay rights. In the 2000 vote (held in the primaries, in which young voter turnout was low) voters under age 30 divided evenly on the issue. This year young voters shifted sharply, 61-39 percent against the measure. Seniors, on the other hand, supported the ban by precisely the same margin.

There was little or no change from 2000 among conservatives or Republicans, both of whom very broadly supported the ban, or among independents, who fairly narrowly opposed it. But opposition rose sharply among Democrats, liberals and moderates alike, up 10, 11 and 15 points, respectively.

Supporters of the ban reportedly suggested that schools would incorporate same-sex marriage into lesson plans. Whether that had an effect is unclear. But voters with children under 18 at home supported the proposition by 64-36 percent, while those without minor children opposed it, 56-44 percent. Similarly, 62 percent of unmarried voters opposed the proposition, while 60 percent of married voters supported it.

In one of the sharpest divisions, 81 percent of evangelical white Protestants in California supported the ban, while among voters with no religious affiliation, 90 percent opposed it. The two groups were about the same size, 17 and 16 percent of voters, respectively.

Voters in Florida and Arizona also approved constitutional amendments banning gay marriage. In Arizona, Proposition 102 passed by 56-44 percent; in Florida, Amendment 2 passed by 62-38 percent. African-Americans in Florida voted similarly to blacks in California, supporting the ban by 71-29 percent. (There was an insufficient sample of blacks in Arizona to estimate their vote.) But, unlike California, majorities of whites in Florida and Arizona also supported banning gay marriage, as did most Hispanics.

Click here for a table comparing the 2000 and 2008 California votes by group.

November 19, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (26)

User Comments

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Obviously the will of the people in California only goes as far as what is popular with the judges. I say if our vote in favor of Prop 8 is overturned, next election.. LET'S ALL STAY HOME!

Posted by: Karen | Nov 19, 2008 10:49:06 AM

We have a judiciary as part of our system of checks and balances. "The will of the people" is all very well, but our Founding Fathers were rightly concerned about times when the majority -- voters or legislators -- are wrong. That's why they established our court system.

In our not-too-distant past, "the will of the people" was to deny black people and other racial minorities and women their rights. Was that just? No, and the courts properly overturned many unjust laws laws.

Today, if we put the Bill of Rights up to a popular vote, I am sure that it would be defeated. That would be "the will of the people" and that would be wrong.

Posted by: Alex | Nov 19, 2008 10:58:32 AM

How soon the black minority forgot. The majority will always trump the minority if allowed. Blatant bigotry kept US blacks out of society and now they vote for bigotry against the gay minority. Who says America is open and free. Given the intolerance displayed in CA by black against gay, we see that America has not changed but actually became more oppressive than ever through P8.

Posted by: buzziea | Nov 19, 2008 11:22:07 AM

I would have been interested to see the educational level of respondants. I suspect you would have seen a strong positive correlation between level of education and opposition to Prop 8, trumping other cultural lines.

Posted by: Yukon Sam | Nov 19, 2008 3:52:36 PM

I really wish the government could follow Jessee's Ventura idea for the government to issue civil unions for all. Let the marriage designation remain a religious term for each religion to promote whatever it deems as necessary for marriage. That way everyone would be treated equally as far as rights and separation of church and state.

Posted by: aw | Nov 19, 2008 6:01:21 PM

pro 8

i voted yes, cause i wanted to support
gays and lesbians......
later i find out, i was supposed to punch no

i felt so bad, for my stupidity

Posted by: yokolee | Nov 19, 2008 6:18:26 PM

Though I am not homophobic, I do not think that the rights of gays, including gay marriage rights, should come before the rights of others, like heterosexual couples who have lived together for more than seven years, who, I think, should have the benefits and rights of common-law marriage. I simply do not understand why society would want to put gay marital rights ahead of the rights of heterosexual couples, who have lived together for more than seven years. Progress comes in increments, I think, and we should not overlook one group's rights for another's, especially when more than a handful of states recognize/legalize common-law marriage, or used to, for heterosexual couples. I think that all states should do so..recognize common-law marriage for heterosexual couples who've lived together for at least seven years. If our country recognized this, maybe then, could society move to the "next" possible level of granting rights...to monogomous homosexual couples. But, I think, we should not put the cart before the horse. Society seems to only accept progress (or at least history tells us as much), in slow increments, often taking decades, if not hundreds of years, before the next progressive laws protecting the rights of others, takes hold.

Posted by: G.B. | Nov 19, 2008 7:23:31 PM

Gay marriage rights are not to put gays ahead of common law couples but only to provide gays and lesbians with the same civil rights as any other American citizen. We do not want to be discriminated against anymore because of who we truly are as people.... We just want the right to marry the person we love and create a life with them. We are not asking for anything more than any other citizen has in this country like riding the bus or taking an elevator... Oh, by the way, there are no laws preventing the couple living together for 7 years from getting married.

Posted by: Frank M | Nov 20, 2008 7:33:42 PM

I am in favor of Prop 8. Why should a majority of Americans lay their rights down to a minority that wants to live in immorality? You can call me what you want, but after the displays across the country by homosexual groups against people and groups in support of prop 8, I can't see that supporters of prop 8 are indeed bigots and other not so nice words.

It is apparent that the homosexuals will push their agenda in any way possible and simply bypass the 70% of Americans that support the constitutional amendment in CA.

Supporters of Prop 8 have never destroyed property and injured person who take a stance on the other side of the issue. What happened in San Francisco last week only goes to state that the opposers of prop 8 are in fact intolerant and displaying signs of bigotry against the majority of Americans.

Posted by: Wes | Nov 20, 2008 7:53:41 PM

Wes how would you feel if the gay put a ballot initiative the next go around to strip your marriage rights away? Would you be angry??? Well that is what gay people are feeling right now, except the is just one minor difference, heterosexuals still have the same rights I think they have a right to so angry considering they are being treated like dirt. es.

Posted by: Nathan | Nov 21, 2008 1:18:32 AM

"The one thing we have learned from history is that we have not learned from history."

Throughout the recorded history of mankind, civilization after civilization has risen to power and glory. And just when they seem proseprous and invincible, then is when things fall apart. Years upon years of work come crashing down, and the once mighty are clothed in dust, soon to be replaced by another nation.

Why? Why did they fall?

Because the people forsook the principles that they knew were right. They uprooted the foundation upon which the nation was built. A foundation of righteousness, temperance, and love. Lost in their excess, governments become corrupt, honest men falter, and values that shape a country are lost to the past.

This nation is on the same track as the many that fell before it. I do not wish ill upon America, but we are bringing it upon ourselves. If we do not humble ourselves, God will. We've seen it before, the plauges, the famines, the sword. May we learn from those who have lived and died before, and not leave thier blood without value and ignored.

I voted yes on Proposition 8, because above all else is God. I know that He lives, that He loves us, and that He will continue to love us despite our pridefull and arrogant rebellions. He is our Heavenly Father. He doesn't want to restrict us with His commandments, but rather, lead us and guide us to neverending peace and happiness. And just like our earthly parents, He will do all in His power to help us help ourselves. If you have ever been the parent of a rebellious child, you know how God must feel when he see's us going off the deep end. The child may not understand, and may rebel; but if they are to stand, if this nation is to stand they must humble themselves, or God will. The happiness we all want, the lasting peace we so desperatley try to find, are freely given to those who willingly serve God and walk the path that He has laid. I will serve God to the end. May we all is my prayer. Amen.

Posted by: Elijah | Nov 21, 2008 4:52:50 PM

Elijah,
Your dissertation may be YOUR perception of religious belief, but we live in a DEMOCRACY where there are many different religious beliefs but one government. The rules should be such that they are enclusive of all different beliefs. The government should be dealing with civil unions for all and equality for all. Let everyone deal with whether the rules for a religious marriage exist in their particular group. After all the Bible also deals with adultery by stoning
to death but I don't think that is carried out today by government or religiously or a great portion of the heterosexual religious population would be extinct. Lets all move on to the 21 Century, please.

Posted by: aw | Nov 21, 2008 6:44:19 PM

History has powerful lesson indeed! The history of the USA, reveals clearly that the same "reasons' some folks now give to ban gay marriage have NOT stood the test of time. Traditional values that prevented the rights of Women to vote, blacks and whites marry one another, have been OVERCOME! we no longer burn witches at the stake for religious reasons, and divorce it legal even though the pope condemns it. GOD BLESS the USA.

Posted by: peter | Nov 21, 2008 9:15:58 PM

There is a fundamental difference between the issue we are facing today and those we have faced in the past. I am a supporter of Prp 8 in CA and was excited to see such a majority support the constitutional amendment.

On the surface, gay rights, black rights, woman sufferage and the such are all fighting for equal rights. The major difference between gay rights and those of the past is the issue of immorality as Wes said. Our forefathers fled England due to religious persecution and they wanted to live quiet peaceful, godly lives. They would not tolerate the sins Americans are committing today, but they would love them enough to say something.

With the fundamental differece between the issues of the past and that of the immoral issue today. I cannot agree that this is an equality issue. The gay right agenda will push their will on the majority of Americans. Should the courts be used to decide what is best for America? No absolutely not!. The people of CA and thrity other states have decided how they want to live and that is it.

Anyone can do whatever they want in their own homes, but do not push your lifestyle on the majority of Americans that deeply believe that what you are doing is immoral and wrong.

Posted by: Sean | Nov 21, 2008 11:34:36 PM

I wish we'd stopped simplifying this issue. I think Blacks have every right to question the Gay agenda, especially considering the fact that it is because of Gay males that Black women lead the nation in HIV/AIDS cases. I wonder where the outrage over that is?

Posted by: Jim | Nov 21, 2008 11:51:28 PM

Perhaps there should be a Proposition banning divorce. Maybe a fine for those who have out of wedlock children. Perhaps dead beat dads and moms ought to be heavily taxed. Perhaps abusive parents and spouses should be STONED...seriously!

I assure you the deterioration of this nation is not the fault of homosexuals. Though I do not agree with the lifestyle, I most certainly do not lay the failures of society at the feet of Gays and Lesbians.

Posted by: Jim | Nov 22, 2008 12:01:56 AM

I agree with Jim. People are such hippocrites. They definitely don't talk about the other corruption within this nation. People that claim to be religious should know that everyone will have to answer to God for themselves. No person on this earth has walked a perfect path, besides Jesus, so no one has the right to judge. Why don't you let people choose for themselves their path whether it's marriage, fornication(which occurs frequently and seems to be accepted by today's standards), and abortion; God has given us all free will for a reason. People need to read the whole Bible and then they will see that the majority of people have a shakey moral compass! If no one is being hurt by what someone choose to do with their life, let them be! How is it hurting heterosexual and their already high divorce rate. Let homosexuals show you how marriage is suppose to be! Marriage couldn't get any worse than it already is; it really doesn't mean anything anymore to heterosexual because it is so easy to do.

Posted by: Tess | Nov 22, 2008 2:45:45 AM

Our individual rights should no more be voted on anymore than black civil rights should have been voted on. Allowing one group of people to claim superiority over another wasn't right for Germany and it isn't right for America.

Posted by: jms | Nov 23, 2008 8:28:27 PM

"Our forefathers fled England..."

See, there's the root of the problem right there. You're assuming that every American (or at least the "real" ones) is a straight Puritan decended from the Mayflower pilgrims. And yes, some of our forefathers were just that.

Others of our forefathers courageously settled a pristine frontier after crossing on foot via the Bering land bridge, centuries before the Europeans, and they formed many nations with many different cultures.

Some of our forefathers came over in chains, and their religious and cultural beliefs were ruthlessly surpressed.

Some came over on contracts of indentured servitude, or fleeing famine, or seeking opportunity, from all corners of the world. They were just as vital to the building of this nation as that small band at Plymouth, and they worship a wide variety of gods and goddesses.

In their writings, the founding fathers made clear their intent; to protect not just the rights of Christians, but also those of Hindus, Muslims, Jews, Pagans, and all others.

At this point, I'm tired enough of the entire debate to support stripping out the word "marriage" from all legal/government contexts and leaving that distinction to the individual religions and congregations to decide for themselves. Let the law concern itself only with the legalities of civil contracts as agreed upon by the consensual parties involved. Let the churches decide whatever they want the word to mean for their own flocks. And stop thinking that what you believe is "moral" is the absolute correct path for every other human being.

Posted by: Yukon Sam | Nov 24, 2008 11:08:43 AM

For all those who want to blame African-Americans for supporting Prop 8, it only underlines the obvious, the failure to understand the importance of the church in the Black community. When it came to Prop 8, its was gay rights vs religious beliefs. Black folks are no more homophobic for supporting Prop 8, then white folks are racist for supporting Prop 209 in 1996. 54% supported this ban, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the same folks angered over Prop 8 supported Prop 209. Oddly enough there was no outrage, no demographics provided as to racial makeup of those who supported Prop 209 and no one cared. Change may have come but it can't be found in many of the comments I've read. Blaming African-Americans for the passage of Prop 8 is just another form of racism by those looking to place the blame.

Posted by: flknr | Nov 24, 2008 11:41:42 PM

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