The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
ARCHIVES
FAVORITES
RECENT POSTS
- Groves Nomination: On the Move?
- Sarah Palin: Up Among Republicans?
- In Iraq, Progress - and Problems
- Mark Sanford and the Affairs of State
- Iran's Election: The Odds of Fraud
- Affirmative Action: Words Matter
- Hold on Groves: Mystery Hour at the Senate
- "Medical Bankruptcies:" a Data Update
- Obama and the Muslim World
- What We Don't Know About China
MONTHLY ARCHIVES
« Previous | Main | Next »
Iraq and the President
December 14, 2008 4:10 PM
George W. Bush’s trip to Iraq is a visit to his personal political ground zero: Public disapproval of the war has been the prime agent in the president’s historic unpopularity.
Regardless of improved security there, a majority of Americans say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, a view that’s held continuously for four years. Bush’s own ratings have moved in tandem; he hasn’t seen majority approval since January 2005, the longest such period since presidential approval polling began 70 years ago. (See chart.)
In last month’s election 63 percent of voters disapproved of the war, and three-quarters of them favored Barack Obama over John McCain for president. War disapproval was up from 56 percent in 2006, when the Democrats regained control of Congress, and from 45 percent in 2004, when, with a narrow majority still behind the war, Bush won re-election.
While the economy in the past year has surpassed Iraq as the country’s driving political force, the impact of the war on Bush’s presidency can hardly be overstated. Views of the war have been especially negative the past two years, with about six in 10 or more saying it wasn’t worth fighting. Bush’s disapproval rating in that same period has ranged from 62 percent to a high of 73 percent, the latter another record in presidential polls. (Bush's latest approval rating was 24 percent in an ABC/Post poll just before Election Day, 2 points from the record low set by Harry Truman in 1952.)
Negative ratings of the war have held even as views of gains in Iraq have improved. Belief the United States was making significant progress restoring civil order in Iraq advanced from 40 percent last April to 52 percent early this fall; nonetheless ratings of the war as “worth fighting” were unchanged. That’s because public views of the war are based not only on current conditions on the ground, but on the war’s long-term costs as compared with its perceived benefits.
In addition to its costs in lives, materiel and money, negative views of the war have been exacerbated by the disillusionment with the administration’s arguments justifying it. As many as 55 percent of Americans, in fall 2005, have said they believed the administration “intentionally misled” the public in making its case for war with Iraq.
Nor have U.S. efforts been popular in Iraq itself (as Sunday's shoe-throwing incident suggested). In a poll there by ABC News and media partners last February, while Iraqis reported improved security and economic conditions alike, they divided evenly on whether it was right or wrong for the United States to have invaded, 79 percent rated U.S. forces negatively and 73 percent opposed the presence of coalition forces in their country.
Here at home, as evidenced by the 2006 and 2008 elections alike, damage from the war extends beyond the president to his party. The Republican Party in 2003 finally achieved political parity, with as many Americans identifying themselves as Republicans as Democrats - an achievement more than two decades in the making. That was the same year the United States invaded Iraq; since then, as views of the war soured, Republican allegiance has declined and the Democrats have regained the upper hand, leading, ultimately, to their capture of the White House last month.
December 14, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (8)
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.
"'intentionally misled' the public in making its case for war with Iraq"
Principles of International Law Recognized in the Charter of the Nüremberg Tribunal and in the Judgment of the Tribunal, 1950.
Principle VI
The crimes hereinafter set out are punishable as crimes under international law:
(a) Crimes against peace:
(i) Planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances;
(ii) Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of any of the acts mentioned under (i).
Posted by: dragon | Dec 14, 2008 4:47:40 PM
The action in Iraq was approved by both the UN and by the US senate. You might not like that and that is your right but you should blame the senators that voted for the authorization. Democrat and Republican alike voted for the Iraq action.
Posted by: James | Dec 14, 2008 5:40:23 PM
It is very unlikely that the Bush Administration will be held accountable within the United States. What we need to do is permit the World Court to have jurisdiction. Give them access to conduct a vialble investigation and hold those responsible for their abuse of power.
Posted by: Stephanie J. Wilkinson | Dec 14, 2008 5:55:05 PM
It doesn't matter what Bush did or does, he could have given every family in the US a million dollars each and all the democrats would still find fault in him. I mean, come on, he was blamed for the hurricane in New Orleans! How absurd is that?!?!?!?
Posted by: wmverdon | Dec 14, 2008 8:05:58 PM
He wasn't blamed for the hurricane itself, he was blamed for the horrible non-response to it..!
Posted by: duh | Dec 14, 2008 10:46:59 PM
He got only a little of what he deserves
Geo W Bush, Cheney, Rummy, Ashcroft and CCondi should be arrested for crimes against humanity!
Posted by: Aisha Jackson | Dec 15, 2008 12:26:05 PM
How quick the public forgets when the media jumps all over someone. The American Congress approved the war. When the facts didn't turn out to be true and the media went wild then Congress decided someone else must have approved going into Iraq. In 50 years George Bush will be remembered in a more favorable light.
Posted by: Pablo | Dec 16, 2008 11:00:57 AM
Congress may have approved going into Iraq but they didn't engender the idea. The buck will still stop at the Oval Office and Bush will be blamed for as long as he lives. Over time, the whole issue will only matter less because other current issues of the day will overshadow the past. I just have to wonder how the survivors of those killed in Iraq deal with the permanency of their loss.
Posted by: BushOutObama In | Dec 17, 2008 9:46:55 AM
Post a comment
