The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Obama: The Transition and the Senate Seat Scandal
December 15, 2008 12:00 PM
The Illinois Senate seat scandal hasn’t touched Barack Obama’s high ratings for honesty or for handling the transition – but many Americans are waiting to hear more.
A tepid 51 percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say Obama’s done enough to explain any discussions his representatives may have had with Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who’s accused of seeking bribes in his selection of Obama’s successor. The rest either say Obama’s not done enough (34 percent) or are unsure (14 percent more).
Obama has not been implicated in the case and has promised to disclose his transition office’s contacts with the governor. Clearly it could help: His 51 percent approval in this area is far below his broad 76 percent approval for handling of the transition overall.
Still, Obama’s transition approval rating has risen from 67 percent three weeks ago, indicating that the Blagojevich scandal hasn’t damaged the president-elect. So does the fact that 67 percent see Obama as honest and trustworthy – slightly better than his rating for honesty back in October, long before “Blagojevich” was pronounceable by news anchors.
Obama’s approval rating for handling the transition now slightly surpasses Bill Clinton’s at this point in 1992 (72 percent) and George W. Bush’s just before his inauguration (likewise 72 percent in January 2001). Clinton’s final pre-inaugural approval was higher, 81 percent in January 1993.
PARTISANS – Majorities across the partisan spectrum approve of Obama’s handling of the transition – a near-unanimous 91 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of independents and even 59 percent of Republicans. That’s about the same among Democrats since late November, up 10 points among independents – and up a remarkable 20 points among Republicans. Indeed, well beyond Obama’s base, 65 percent of conservatives now approve of his transition work, as do 54 percent of conservative Republicans.
That’s similar to Clinton in 1992. At first just 44 percent of Republicans approved of his handling of the transition; that improved to 53 percent in mid-December and 72 percent just before his inauguration. But less than a month later Clinton’s approval rating among Republicans plummeted to 34 percent – a reminder of the fragility of bipartisan approval.
Indeed, even now, Republicans are less apt to credit Obama with honesty and trustworthiness; 41 percent do so, compared with 63 percent of independents and 89 percent of Democrats.
Satisfaction with Obama’s disclosure of Senate seat discussions declines across all these groups. Sixty-six percent of Democrats say he’s done enough to disclose contacts with Blagojevich – still a broad majority, but 25 points below Obama’s overall transition approval among Democrats. Fifty-one percent of independents say he’s done enough to explain these contacts, as do just 33 percent of Republicans.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including landline and cell-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a 3-point error margin; click here for a detailed description of sampling error and here for a pdf version of this analysis with question wording and results. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
December 15, 2008 in President Obama | Permalink | User Comments (33)
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I'm sticking with Fitzgerald's analysis of the situation - there is no story here as to Obama.
Posted by: hang | Dec 15, 2008 12:13:03 PM
"....Obama's high ratings for honesty?"
You have got to be kidding. He hasn't come clean on his birth certificate issue, his associations with Rezko, ACORN, Ayers and other questionables.
He promised to withdraw troops from Iraq all during his campaign and he's has already taken that promise back and he hasn't even been inaugurated yet! He knows more about Gov. Blago's sweet little deals than he's ever going to admit.
So please, give him all the compliments you want, ABC, but spare me having to hear him being called "honest."
NOT BUYING IT.
Posted by: Kenningwood | Dec 15, 2008 12:18:30 PM
Where are they getting their numbers.
Obama is one of the biggest liars we ever had run for President.
He can not say honesty or he will choke.
He never Heard Wright did he? Oh wait he was caught red handed in that lie.
He told the Canandians he did not mean what he was telling the Americans.
How many lies slipped by?
How much has he deceived the people?
Apparantly his mind control is still working on a lot of people.
Posted by: seah | Dec 15, 2008 12:38:29 PM
Well, look, he says he is the first black president. Well, he is not. He is multiethnic. He sat in Rev. Wright's church for 15 years and you think he knows the truth. One thing he does know how to do it hsve a Clinton administration. The Clinton administration was probably the most unethical and simply arrogant of all the presiodencies of my lifetime. He needs to tell the truth, but he can't and he won't and the news media will not report anythig negative about him.
Posted by: Janice | Dec 15, 2008 12:38:46 PM
LOL! These right-wing nuts just won't give it up, will they??
Guys - it's OVER. He is the President of the United States. With a sky high approval rating. Get over it, will you? You are sounding VERY pathetic - and I must say, that's unlike your own Republican nominee McCain, who seems to HAVE gotten over it and is handling it better than you losers.
Stop whining for heaven's sake. It's embarrassing to watch you guys lose your balance.
Posted by: Sunil | Dec 15, 2008 12:47:22 PM
"....Obama's high ratings for honesty?"
What planet are you on?? The media continues to shield this guy even when the facts are staring them in the face. Hussein WAS NEVER HONEST and never will be. ABC and the rest of the media need to start reporting the facts and NOT try to create news that is ONLY supportive of Hussein. Wright, Rezko, Ayers, Blago, Farrakhan, ACORN, Gadaffi, Odinga, Khalidi, come on! What does Hussein have to do to to be impeached? This election we all know was manipulated by the media which continues to do a disservice to the country. Hussein will love to see this story go away, like all the others. I say to Blago......do not resign, do not step down, hold your own and don't let them try to remove you. How can the DA say that Blago cannot serve because he is mentally incapable? Is she a doctor? They want to paint a picture of Blago as a mad man so that anything he says about Hussein, Rahm, Axelrod and the whole bunch of corrupt Obama team will be dismissed as coming from a mentally disturbed person. If Blago cannot serve because he is corrupt, THEN THE SAME YARDSTICK SHOULD APPLY TO HUSSEIN BECAUSE HE IS 1000 times more corrupt than Blago!!
Posted by: chotolal7 | Dec 15, 2008 12:52:30 PM
As if the stories coming out of Illinois are not enough. Now Bloomberg is reporting that Bill richardson is under investigation for influence peddling. Before Obama takes office his chief of staff and his commerce secretary are already in hot water and will most likely be forced to resign.
I thought Obama was going to bring change. Dressing up corruption and defending wrongdoing is not my idea of positive change.
Posted by: James | Dec 15, 2008 1:07:04 PM
If those polls are real, and given the way the media has shamelessly supported Obama that's questionable, then there are a lot of stupid people in this country. We really know very little about Obama, but one thing we do know is that he's not honest.
Posted by: howwouldiknow | Dec 15, 2008 1:58:21 PM
I find it very interesting indeed, that BUSH'S FBI is suddenly finding a need to seek charges against ANYONE and EVERYONE associated with Obama. Sort of smells a lot like more of Bushie's justice department being used for political purposes. I hope Obama returns the favor to the corrupt GOP! Wonder where Limbaugh is scoring his pills and how many Republican Senators are getting money from Corps in exchange for legislation?
Posted by: Magine That | Dec 15, 2008 2:00:54 PM
As usual, the American people prove that they are far more knowledgeable and intelligent than the media gives them credit for. Just as during the campaign, the media is trying to shove some misleading information down their throats and they are rejecting it! Kudos to my fellow Americans...keep proving that you are far better than than the rejects who simply live to stir up trouble!
Posted by: Dee | Dec 15, 2008 2:03:42 PM
that would be what - 51% of his relatives and all three friends?
Posted by: richardm | Dec 15, 2008 3:00:05 PM
Not president for another month. The hate and dividers can't even wait till he gets in office to make a judgement.
It seems that all the haters have got, is Wright and Ayers. It mut have been Obama that decreed slavery ok. It must have been him that stole the First Nation{s} Country. It must have been him that entered the First Workd War, by spewing absolute falsehoods to a decent nation, to take up arms agaunst the Germans. Causing the 2cnd World to happen. It must have been Obama that was hiding under white hooded robes, and burned churches, and reaped strange fruit. It must have been him that started a war with Viet Naam, and told Americans how bad the Viet Cong is. Oh, and he's the one that really invaded Iraq.
Posted by: lmr. Truth | Dec 15, 2008 3:07:08 PM
Nothing unusual in these stats.....there is always a honeymoon with a newly elected president. I am
happy with his cabinet picks.
However, he had better come out with the list of names of those on his team who are in anyway connected to the Illinois senate selection.
Watergate was about a silly break-in, but Nixon and his cohorts became obsessed with the cover-up of what they knew about it. I am beginning to see a pattern here.....and we know what happened to Nixon.
Posted by: carol | Dec 15, 2008 3:09:39 PM
"I find it very interesting indeed, that BUSH'S FBI is suddenly finding a need to seek charges against ANYONE and EVERYONE associated with Obama. Sort of smells a lot like more of Bushie's justice department being used for political purposes. I hope Obama returns the favor to the corrupt GOP! Wonder where Limbaugh is scoring his pills and how many Republican Senators are getting money from Corps in exchange for legislation?"
----------------------------------
WOW...only a totally in tank, God knows liberals NEVER do anything wrong, Please leave the messiah alone ObamaBot would think that "Blago" was being investigated by "Bush's FBI".
As I have said before, You people seriously need to get a grip on reality.
You "claim" Bush is this SUPER-MASTERMIND who duped the entire world into a war in Iraq for his own purposes.
Then you "claim" every other single policy he has backed for 8 years is stupid, incompetant, and terrible for the country.
You "claim" everything wrong for the past 8 yrs is somehow his fault, but then you "claim" Obama can rise from the mud & slime that is the Chicago political machine with absoultely no knowledge of anything. Rev Wright "never" said bad things in my presensce (Even though Oprah winfrey left that church in the early 1990's!!!) even though he is back again with his inflammatory surmons, Bill Ayers was just an "aquaintance" (how many "aquaintances are willing to raise money for you if you decided to run of an office today???). Now this Governor is trying to extort every possible candidate in Illinois, and somehow the boy-genius has no idea what is going on.
You people can continue to rant & rave in a partisan tone against Bush, but do not try to convince the rest of us that your savior is the king of political clean.
Posted by: Mike_C | Dec 15, 2008 3:13:20 PM
Obama has a press conference at 4pm Central time today to announce two more Cabinet appointments. He is expected to take questions. The Gov. Blago case is certain to come up. WGN radio is reporting that he will say that THEY HAVE BEEN ASKED BY THE FEDS NOT TO COMMENT ON THE BLAGO SITUATION UNTIL NEXT WEEK. In other words, the Obama camp is COOPERATING WITH THE FEDS. Now, what can you Obama haters make out of that news?
Posted by: William J. LePetomane | Dec 15, 2008 4:01:38 PM
I AM SOOOOOOOOOO SICK OF YOU BONE-HEADS TOSSING ALL OF THESE HATEFUL COMMENTS AROUND ABOUT OBAMA!!! HE HASN'T BEEN SWORN IN YET...WHICH MEANS HE CANNOT EXERCISE ANY AUTHORITY AS PRESIDENT YET!!! WHICH ALSO MEANS HE CANNOT PUT AN END TO THE WAR IN IRAQ OR ATTEMPT TO SOLVE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS BECAUSE HE DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER TO DO SO UNTIL JANUARY 20, 2009! AND THIS CRAP ABOUT HIM BEING TIED TO GOV. BLAGO---- GIVE ME A BREAK!! DID YOU ALL HEAR ANY OF THE AUDIO TAPES? IT'S CLEAR TO ME THAT THERE IS NO LOVE LOST BETWEEN OBAMA AND BLAGOJEVICH!!!! EVEN THE FEDS HAVE SAID THAT OBAMA AND HIS STAFF ARE NOT BEING TARGETED IN THE INVESTIGATION SO UNTIL SOMEONE COMES UP WITH SOME REAL EVIDENCE AGAINST OBAMA, I THINK ALL OF YOU NEED TO SHUT UP!!!!
Posted by: stopthemadness | Dec 15, 2008 5:10:19 PM
"I am not a crook." Will there be 18 minutes of the prosecutors tape missing?
Posted by: Rasputin3.14 | Dec 15, 2008 6:01:38 PM
LIsten, Obama's birth certificate HAS been verified! I don't understand why people want to keep bringing up all this fals information about him.
Regardless of whether or not you were for him in teh election, let's support our president. I think he is an intellgent man, and I pray that he can help correct this mess that the Bush administration has made. If we want to accuse anyone of wrongdoing, how about the Bush administration starting a war with lies, and killing THOUSANDS of innocent soldiers and civilians because of the lies. He, Bush, and Cheney have blood on their hands.
Posted by: Chatterbox | Dec 15, 2008 8:26:39 PM
SORRY PUBBIES NO STORY HERE ,Blagojevich said it all: the Obama people were "not willing to give me anything except appreciation." THE media organizations look to manufacture fake controversies where none apparently exist.
Posted by: NES | Dec 15, 2008 8:53:54 PM
Agree with 'hang'. There's no story or link between Obama and Blago.
Posted by: Common Sense | Dec 15, 2008 9:18:13 PM
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