The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Obama: The Transition and the Senate Seat Scandal
December 15, 2008 12:00 PM
The Illinois Senate seat scandal hasn’t touched Barack Obama’s high ratings for honesty or for handling the transition – but many Americans are waiting to hear more.
A tepid 51 percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say Obama’s done enough to explain any discussions his representatives may have had with Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who’s accused of seeking bribes in his selection of Obama’s successor. The rest either say Obama’s not done enough (34 percent) or are unsure (14 percent more).
Obama has not been implicated in the case and has promised to disclose his transition office’s contacts with the governor. Clearly it could help: His 51 percent approval in this area is far below his broad 76 percent approval for handling of the transition overall.
Still, Obama’s transition approval rating has risen from 67 percent three weeks ago, indicating that the Blagojevich scandal hasn’t damaged the president-elect. So does the fact that 67 percent see Obama as honest and trustworthy – slightly better than his rating for honesty back in October, long before “Blagojevich” was pronounceable by news anchors.
Obama’s approval rating for handling the transition now slightly surpasses Bill Clinton’s at this point in 1992 (72 percent) and George W. Bush’s just before his inauguration (likewise 72 percent in January 2001). Clinton’s final pre-inaugural approval was higher, 81 percent in January 1993.
PARTISANS – Majorities across the partisan spectrum approve of Obama’s handling of the transition – a near-unanimous 91 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of independents and even 59 percent of Republicans. That’s about the same among Democrats since late November, up 10 points among independents – and up a remarkable 20 points among Republicans. Indeed, well beyond Obama’s base, 65 percent of conservatives now approve of his transition work, as do 54 percent of conservative Republicans.
That’s similar to Clinton in 1992. At first just 44 percent of Republicans approved of his handling of the transition; that improved to 53 percent in mid-December and 72 percent just before his inauguration. But less than a month later Clinton’s approval rating among Republicans plummeted to 34 percent – a reminder of the fragility of bipartisan approval.
Indeed, even now, Republicans are less apt to credit Obama with honesty and trustworthiness; 41 percent do so, compared with 63 percent of independents and 89 percent of Democrats.
Satisfaction with Obama’s disclosure of Senate seat discussions declines across all these groups. Sixty-six percent of Democrats say he’s done enough to disclose contacts with Blagojevich – still a broad majority, but 25 points below Obama’s overall transition approval among Democrats. Fifty-one percent of independents say he’s done enough to explain these contacts, as do just 33 percent of Republicans.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including landline and cell-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a 3-point error margin; click here for a detailed description of sampling error and here for a pdf version of this analysis with question wording and results. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
December 15, 2008 in President Obama | Permalink | User Comments (33)
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Boy! Haters cannot stop their hate. At least Bush told the truth him and Cheney,right? Seems like the more you hate the more it comes and hit you in your face.
Posted by: Felton | Dec 15, 2008 9:36:31 PM
Who do they use for these polls? Barry has not been honest about his relationship with 1/2 of the shady people in his life. Just because the mainstream media refuses to acknowledge this does not mean the court of public opinion will eventually come down on him.
Posted by: liberalsaresocialists | Dec 15, 2008 10:14:23 PM
Why is this stuff so important?I think his reforms could be constructed to be much better than they are.The 700 hundred bullion dollar bailout and this issue is crazy.I want to say that if he would get off that and worry about the economy we would be much better off.The bailout should be for us.The money should be disbursed to us.That would motivate people to buy more cars and houses, instead of them being greedy and going bankrupt.If the bailouts were meant for the economy to come out of a recession why is it not coming to us so we can help boost by spending the money? I am sorry I totally got off the subject,but it is just something they should think about instead of worrying about people that have money and do not have to worry about things like food and clothing.We need change!!!
Posted by: kblassingame | Dec 15, 2008 10:42:30 PM
Hi, Langer, what are you talking about
Obama is high rating for honest or dishonest ? Obama is good speech and
clever but I never ever believe he is
honest. Could you help me please find these things, Langer?
1 Occidental Coll.records - Not released
2 Columbia Coll. records - Not released
3 Columbia Thesis paper - not available, locked down by faculty
4 Harvard College records- Not released, locked down by faculty
5 Selective Service - Not released
6 Medical records -- Not released
7 IL State Senate schedule-not available
8 Law practice client list- Not released
10 Embossed, signed paper Certification of Live Birth -- Not released
11 Harvard Law Review articles-NONE
12 Univ.of Chicago scholarly articles- None
13 Your Record of baptism-- Not released or 'not available'
14 Obama's father, Barack Hussein Obama's faith is MUSLIM - No comment during campaign, call my middle name HUSSEIN at inagulation after elected.
15 Connection with TONY REZKO, BILL AYER--MY NEIGHBORS
16 ACORN-VOTER-FRAUD - No connection
17 Criminal Blago- No connection
18 Radical Muslims Farrakhan, Khalidi-
my friends.
Posted by: Janet from NY | Dec 15, 2008 11:43:40 PM
This poll is a joke. Who did they poll? Obama's transition team or the Huffington post?
Posted by: dlc | Dec 16, 2008 12:27:17 AM
Amazing... weren't these posters calling the polls a joke the same ones saying the same thing about the polls that showed Obama ahead in the pre-election period? And guess what, those polls were right too
Posted by: pawal1 | Dec 16, 2008 5:55:06 AM
Agree with 'hang'. There's no story or link between Obama and Blago.
-------------------------------------
Is there anyone this guy actually did have a realtionship with in the past 20 years?...besides his wife & kids?
It is amazing that we are being asked to believe that every single questionable person in his life was "just an aquaintance".
Rev. Wright
Rezco
Ayers
Father Flager
"Blago"
whose Next?
Wow, maybe he is the "messiah" - After all who else could possibly come thruogh the slime pit that is Chicago politics cleaner than Mr. Clean?
Posted by: Mike_C | Dec 16, 2008 10:26:07 AM
Dear Gary,
Can you unveil the source of number ?
Obama is cleverly talented at covering of his deceptive actions with his fabulous speech. My so many comments were blocked by ABC,CNN and NY Times because it typed Obama's middle name Hussein also Obama kept DEFTLY on hiding of his father's faith of Muslim over the campaign. Nontheless I've not been against Muslim, but only Terrorists. After elected, he wants to speech at capital of Muslim, and to be called his full middle name HUSSEIN, not initial "H" on inauguration which most people in all of the world will watch. This is just one of 100 examples
I can account easily.
Posted by: Jung -NY | Dec 16, 2008 2:11:13 PM
No Bama is beginning to be the controversial figure I knew he would be. But little did I know, it would happen so soon! Hmmm... America will get what it deserves, you watch. This nut job will take us down the toilet. He is the number one lib!!!
Posted by: Stubby | Dec 17, 2008 11:29:59 AM
What do you mean? We are WAAAAAY past down the toilet...we should not be surprised if this new guy brings some of the same stuff, it's not like he is Superman or something...he came from the same place from where ALL American presidents come from: America. He wasn't sent from heaven, he came from a society full of issues and rubbish, who love gossip, shopping and stuffing face, who crave shaken and stirred cocktails of scandal and entertainment and prefer to remain illiterate and entirely oblivious, and we "decide" who to put on the biggest chair to provide it, so it is NOT the elected king, it's the people who elected him...so don't put to much attention to it anymore. Since we didn't have the guts to impeach the departing clown, there is nothing we can, or we will be able to, do about this new guy. The only problem between the new president and the ones before him? this guy is not white, and THAT may be what is making some folks pretty uncomfortable.
Posted by: aogm | Dec 17, 2008 12:58:51 PM
Oh gee, why can't Obama be more transparent and open, as promised, answer these Blago questions ? Is his teleprompter broken ? And why doesn't the media/ABC,/CBS/CNN/NBC/FOX and I use the term very loosely, interview Obama and ask him the questions that they pose to the public ? Something more to hide ? No citizenship lawsuit questions ever answered or interviews, now no questions answered about Blago or interviews by the media. There goal is to keep Americans stirred up and confused with a new issue every day, but no one is talking. That way no one is ever held accountable, AND TO SHOW US THERE IS NO TEETH IN THE LAW. Anything the media contributes is only to keep American off balance and the infighting continues. Barry, Rezko, Ayers, Blago, the Media, You are known by the company you keep. Does it speak well of YOU ? AMERICANS DESERVE ANSWERS, AFTER ALL THEY ARE OUR EMPLOYEES !!!
Posted by: lotzahair | Dec 20, 2008 9:21:44 PM
HONESTY POLL - LOL LOL - WHO DID YOU POLL THE OTHER DEAF - DUMB AND BLIND MEDIA ? DID YOU GO TO SPELLCHECK TO TYPE IN HONESTY ? BO HAS ALREADY CAST HIS LIES ON HIS BIRTH, SCHOOLING, SELECTIVE SERVICE, ACORN, AYERS, REZKO AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON BUT HASN'T MADE IT TO THE WH YET. WOW HE IS SCAREY ! I HOPE BLAGO SINGS LIKE A CANARY.
Posted by: lotzahair | Dec 20, 2008 9:53:55 PM
And now he wants Geithner, (I don't pay my taxes unless required for nomination), as our Treasury czar???? And Eric Holder, (I helped Clinton to pardon Marc Rich after he was convicted of tax evasion) because he donated to Clinton's campaign fund, so that makes it ok....Oh yeah, I also got clemency for 16 Puerto Rican terrorists (FALN)convicted of 120 bombings in the U.S. resulting in 6 dead and hundreds more maimed. THIS IS CHANGE!!!!?????
Posted by: tickedoff | Jan 15, 2009 5:10:07 PM
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