The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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The Veteran Vote - an Update
December 24, 2008 9:11 AM
One place my thoughts turn during the holidays is to the men and women serving overseas. From there – my day job being what it is – it’s a short leap to the veteran vote. With the 2008 election dust now settled, how’d it look?
There are some surprises. While veterans clearly favored John McCain, it was by less of a margin than you might suppose for a candidate with a celebrated war record: McCain won veterans by 10 points, compared with George W. Bush’s 16-point margin in 2004.
Digging’s worthwhile, since it’s a pretty big group: Per the exit poll, veterans accounted for 15 percent of all voters, about as numerous as, say, blacks (13 percent) or single men (14 percent). And as I noted in a posting based on our pre-election polls last summer, veteran voters stand out demographically. Almost all of them – 89 percent – were men. More than a third were senior citizens, triple the level of seniors among non-veterans. They were more apt to be Southerners, including Southern whites.
Those fit expectations. But the biggest surprise is for anyone who assumed a major tilt toward the Republican Party among veterans. Thirty-five percent of veterans voting in 2008 identified themselves as Democrats, 34 percent as Republicans (the rest were independents). That’s a striking change from 2004: Republican allegiance among veterans dropped from 41 percent then to 34 percent this year. Democrats gained 4 points, independents 3. What had been a 10-point Republican advantage over Democrats among veterans vanished.
Veteran voters
2008 2004 Change
Dem 35% 31% +4 points
Rep 34 41 -7
Ind 31 28 +3
An overall drop in Republican participation was one of the major takeaways of the election. What we see here is that it was even more pronounced among veterans (as above, down 7 points) than among non-veterans (down 4 points, from 37 percent Republican in 2004 to 33 percent in 2008). Veterans’ party allegiance is far from fixed in the firmament. (This fits, as it happens, with a survey of partisanship among active-duty military by Army Maj. Jason Dempsey that I wrote about in July.)
At the same time, ideology was more stable: Veterans this year were 6 points more apt than non-veterans to be conservatives, about the same as the 8-point gap in 2004. Forty-one percent of veteran voters this year were conservatives, identical to 2004. (Among white veterans only, conservatism peaked, at 46 percent.) Nineteen percent of veterans were liberals, compared with 24 percent of non-veterans.
Greater conservatism and/or lessened liberalism would push the veteran vote toward Republican candidates, party affiliation aside. That helps explain why McCain did a little better with Democratic veterans than with non-veteran Democrats – and more important, a lot better with independent veterans than with non-veteran independents. Another table:
Vote pref: Obama-McCain
Veterans Non-veterans
Dem 83-16% 90-9%
Rep 7-92 12-87
Ind 41-56 55-40
In the end, veterans voted for McCain by 54-44 percent, compared with a 57-41 percent preference for Bush in 2004. Sadly, given the construction of the exit poll, we don’t have attitudinal questions to carry our evaluation beyond the demographic differences reported here. When we run a regression analysis, holding constant other factors (such as age, race, sex and partisanship), being a veteran is a significant predictor of vote preference in 2008 exit poll data, but was not in 2004. That’s similar to the inconsistent regression results we’ve seen previously in pre-election data.
As I suggested last summer, it seems to me that most coherent voter groups exist via political or religious affinity or demographic characteristics – such as independents, blacks, white evangelicals or young voters. With the exception of career officers, veterans seem to have less of a common denominator, aside from the fact of their service – which, for many of them, was a long time ago. That makes them a more elusive group politically than conventional wisdom might suggest.
I’ll close with a few details:
-Like sex, age is a sharp difference: Thirty-five percent of veterans who voted were 65 and over, triple the share of seniors among non-veterans, 12 percent. And just 5 percent were under 30, compared with 22 percent of non-veterans. That mattered, since older voters were McCain’s best group; young ones, his worst.
-Veteran voters were 9 points more likely than non-veterans to be Southerners, 40 percent vs. 31 percent. Among whites only, 34 percent of veterans were Southerners, vs. 28 percent of non-veterans.
-White veterans voted 63-36 percent for McCain, compared with 53-46 percent among white non-veterans. Interestingly, this difference disappeared in the South, where white veterans voted almost exactly like all Southern whites, 68-31 percent for McCain; it was in other regions where white veterans were better for McCain than white non-veterans. Among nonwhites, meanwhile, McCain got 28 percent support from veterans, compared with 16 percent from non-veterans.
-Among veterans who voted for Bush in 2004, 12 percent defected to Obama. That's less than Obama's share of non-veteran Bush voters, 19 percent. At the same time, among veterans who did not vote in 2004, or who voted for a third-party candidate, 73 percent backed Obama this year (as did 69 percent of non-vets in this group).
-A last nugget: Veteran voters were 20 points more apt than non-vets to be gun owners.
December 24, 2008 in Favorite Posts | Permalink | User Comments (15)
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So what were these Pro-Bush Vets thinking in 2004? I realize we're supposed to be obligated to thank them for their sacrifice (albeit, voluntary and paid by our tax money) for serving, but thanks a lot for the service rendered at the voting booth back in '04, guys!
Posted by: bushoutobamain | Dec 24, 2008 9:53:02 AM
It would have been interesting if the veterans voting preference could have been broken down by where/when a person served. I served multiple combat tours in vietnam and cannot understand the "hero" status afforded McCain. I believe that a great many vietnam vets voted against the republican war machine.
Posted by: liberalvet | Dec 24, 2008 10:36:53 AM
As a 27 year old white male who served two tours in Iraq, many assume that I would be inclined to have voted for McCain. I did not. I voted for Obama because i could not in good conscience vote for someone that would back Bush's policy of irrational and uncalled for war. I would say that the unrestrained use of force to combat our current problems is the diplomatic equivilant of using a sledgehammer to knock down a tree. I further felt that Palin was too divisive and too willing to continue that line of action. I congratulate and thank my fellow vets for their service, regardless of what the voted. Cheers, Ray
Posted by: rayhagermanniraqvet | Dec 24, 2008 4:33:36 PM
My husband is a Vietnam Combat Veteran who for the first time in his life voted Republican, as did I. We admire and respect John McCain for his service and his sacrifice, and we deplore Barack Obama. That man is not and never will be our President. I don't understand how any veteran in good concience could have voted for Obama and against John McCain. In fact I don't understand how anyone could have voted for a man with only 143 days of public service to this country, period. You will most certainly get what you deserve, which is another Jimmy Carter with double digit inflation. Unfortunately, the rest of us will also have to suffer right along with you. The lines are already forming with people just waiting to say "We told you so". Don't be surprised to hear that every day for the next 4 years. Maybe in 4 years you will be intelligent enough to vote for experience over inexperience, and common sense will have weaned you off of the Kool Aid.
Posted by: jdona | Dec 24, 2008 8:14:21 PM
Did you ever wonder why the statistics show that McCain did not have a bigger margin. OBAMA AND 90 percent of the military are BLACK and BLACK FEMALES. 99 percent of the combat soliders are WHITE OR HISPANIC.
Posted by: saanamd | Dec 24, 2008 11:54:08 PM
I am a Vet of Vietnam. I voted for what would help our Country. Regretably< Mr.McCain has become a follower instead of the Independent Maverick I would have voted 4 in 2000. I voted 4 Mr. Obama. He is our best chance to fix What Bush has screwed up.
Posted by: Ed Reynolds | Dec 25, 2008 3:28:40 AM
Yes i was a cook in the military that was a heroin addict in the military so that makes me an expert.
Posted by: Ed Reynolds | Dec 25, 2008 7:06:03 AM
jdona..... you country first? uh, President-elect Obama will be your U.S. President comes Jan. 09. Your excuse for him is a l.. Maybe Fidel could be your President or Putin, or....because Obama will be all Americans president. Get it?
Posted by: sara wilson | Dec 25, 2008 7:12:09 AM
jdona My brother and husband is a Viet Nam vet. My brother was so wounded from the war, he committed suicide. He could not vote when he entered to serve his country. So....would he have been an excellent candidate for President. And by the way, maybe McCain should have taken his dad's priviledge status during that time and received some help for his mental health, as this help was only afforded for the Priviledge. He may was a good soldier, but so was my brother and husband.
Posted by: sara wilson | Dec 25, 2008 7:27:26 AM
Men , including Obama, have to earn my respect. Until they do that they're just men I don't know.
Posted by: Mike | Dec 25, 2008 12:09:15 PM
Interesting that in my military office mixed with DoD civilian workers, only a black vet (voted Rep in '04), and two Democrat Easterner civilians, voted for Obama out of 13 people. Most of us were horrified by 15 September 2008's stock market and the weeks following that, but we realized that these were results of a general lack of honesty, integrity, and common sense in both the Legislative and Executive Branches of the US government, and especially the Federal Reserve Board, and the Commerce and Labor Departments. Most US military personnel realize clearly that the US government is an oligarchy rather than a true democracy. Most of us military Republicans hope that President-elect Obama can be savvy enough to move towards the center when he takes office. We also suspect that both branches of government will strip huge amounts of funding from the Department of Defense in short order. It only makes sense...the other departments are all darlings and pets of Democrats.
Posted by: K. Daraa | Dec 27, 2008 7:11:47 PM
Now in 2009, you still see americans like that who continue to support people like Bush, Cheney, Rumsfield who cheated and lied to americans about WMD and billions of dollars in needless war in Iraq and brought about the economic crisis. They even endorsed torture and inhumanity..Do you think such americans are a DISGRACE to support criminals?? Well, they could be in your neighbourhood (especially in the southern states of USA)!!!
Posted by: Al | Jan 4, 2009 7:00:11 AM
i served in viet-mam.. i could never understand the hero status given to john mccain. if he is a hero all of us schould be.
Posted by: army0009 | Jan 11, 2009 11:49:49 AM
As a veteran of the Korean War, who lost his friend over there, I couldn't vote for McCain for several reasons: one being he tried to win votes by touting the fact that he was a POW. Another the fact that he picked a dimwit to run with him. I used to have a lot of respect for McCain but it has been pared down considerably. I voted for Obama and am glad that I did.
Posted by: Rob | Jan 12, 2009 12:18:37 PM
I am a white, conservative, retired Army Officer. I voted for Bush in 2000 and attempted to rectify that mistake in 2004. John McCain is one of my heros, however, while I voted for him in the primaries, I voted for Obama in the general election. McCain was only right in three related areas; Iraq, terrorism, and foreign policy. In every other respect he was a Bush clone. He put the last nail in his own coffin by selecting a dimwit as his running mate. Palin, one heartbeat from the presidency, was a nightmare. I put "Country First" and voted Obama.
Posted by: Sam | Jan 22, 2009 10:55:08 PM
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