The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Strong. But Average. And Way Divided.
February 24, 2009 2:07 PM
There are a couple of data points worth keeping in mind as we await President Obama’s address to the nation tonight - and as we digest an aide's claim today, as Jake Tapper reports, that his strong approval rating is "earned." One, while his rating is high, it’s also dead average for a new president. The other is the impressive partisanship beneath it.
We have approval ratings for each of the last nine elected presidents after their first month in office, back to Dwight Eisenhower. (We’re leaving Johnson and Ford aside.) There’s been a healthy range, from a low of 55 percent for George W. Bush after the disputed election of 2000 to a high of 76 percent for his father 12 years earlier. (I’m using ABC/Post polls since Reagan, Gallup previously).
But the average? Sixty-seven percent. And Obama’s? Sixty-eight percent, as we reported in our new poll yesterday. His initial rating, then, is strong – but it’s also generally typical for a new guy.
An increasing factor, though, is partisanship. I’ve previously described a steadily rising correlation between political party allegiance and ideology over the past generation. It shows up in presidential approval, too. The gap between a president’s rating in his own party vs. the out party has been markedly wider for the last three officeholders compared with their six elected predecessors.
Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush were the last two presidents of the less-partisan era. Reagan started with 89 percent approval among Republicans, 71 percent among independents and 56 percent among Democrats. Bush’s first-month approval ratings from these groups were 90, 74 and 64 percent, respectively. Those are 18- and 33-point gaps for Reagan, 16- and 26-point gaps for Bush.
That changed with Bill Clinton: He started with 86 percent approval from Democrats, but just 59 percent from independents and 40 percent from Republicans – gaps of 27 and 46 points, respectively. Then George W. Bush – 86 percent in his party, but dropping to 54 percent among independents (-32 points) and 37 percent among Democrats, 49 points lower than in his political base.
And now there’s Obama, who’s made reaching across party lines a point of principle in his presidency, with little to show for it so far. After a month in the hot seat, 90 percent of Democrats approve of his work, dropping to 67 percent of independents and 37 percent of Republicans. The 53-point difference between Democrats and Republicans in assessing Obama is numerically the biggest in data back to Eisenhower, albeit within sampling tolerances of the gap for George W. Bush.
There are substantive reasons for these differences; Obama’s staked his economic program on a massive infusion of federal dollars, and Republicans are pretty much constitutionally skeptical of the government’s ability to spend money wisely or well, at least on social programs. They’re also especially concerned about the ballooning deficit.
This doesn’t mean there’s no potential upside in Obama’s at least trying to reach across the aisle. Two-thirds of Americans say they’d rather see politicians try to cooperate across party lines, even if that means compromising on important issues. (But likely not if it means compromising on core values, as the message massager John Russonello aptly points out.) And Obama, in our poll, gets credit for seeking compromise in a way the Republicans in Congress don’t. That’s likely helping him among independents, at least as compared with George W. Bush, as the table below shows.
Nonetheless, the bottom line is the same as I suggested shortly after Inauguration Day. Reaching for bipartisanship is all well and good. Actually achieving it, given the sharp and substantive divisions that undergird partisan sentiments, is another issue entirely.
Approval in February of 1st term
---In party:---
All Dem Rep Ind vs. out vs. ind.
Obama 68% 90% 37% 67% 53 pts. 23 pts.
Bush 55 37 86 54 49 32
Clinton 63 86 40 59 46 27
Bush 76 64 90 74 26 16
Reagan 68 56 89 71 33 18
Carter 71 79 58 69 21 10
Nixon 60 52 76 57 24 19
Kennedy 72 86 49 69 37 17
Eisenhower 68 61 84 66 23 18
ABC/Post polls since Reagan, Gallup previously
February 24, 2009 in Partisanship/Party ID, President Obama | Permalink | User Comments (385)
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How long will it take for the GOP to realize that Obama is stronger thanks to the stimulus and that the public is souring on their obstructionist tendencies?
Posted by: matt | Feb 24, 2009 2:32:59 PM
How dare you question the messiah. He will ride his horse up upon the mount soon and join gawd. ( poor Mr Ed is getting nervous )
Posted by: Freemon Sandlewould | Feb 24, 2009 2:34:44 PM
I love it when poor writers use the phrase "thanks to".....well thanks to the stimulus the whole system is destined to go down. Its not going to be pretty. Remember that Matt.....because when it happens you'll be changing the hymm your are singing for your dime store plastic messiah.
Posted by: Freemon Sandlewould | Feb 24, 2009 2:37:00 PM
What kind of welfare are was the pole take in? No one other than socialist or idiots like Mr. Obama. He is a total looser.
Posted by: RIP | Feb 24, 2009 2:37:20 PM
The public is souring on a party that tried to block:
1. The largest spending bill in world history
2. #1, with no provisions for hiring U.S. Citizens (i.e. no E-Verify)
3. Gives "average folks" (and I know that's a dubious term) $8 more in their paychecks.
4. Fails to address the fundamentals behind the economic collapse.
Huh? How's that Kool-Aid tasting?
Posted by: O-Bummer | Feb 24, 2009 2:39:16 PM
I had decided I would try hard to be fair to the new president, even though I didn't vote for him. Unfortunately, his first month was even worse than I imagined. His cabinet choices were pathetic. His idea fo bipartisanship is the Republicans giving in to his every whim. The stimulous package is mostly a compilation of social programs to bring us closer to socialism and pork barrel stuff. I want our country to be successful as a republic, democracy, and free market economy. There is no way I can support this president in anyway if I want those things. If he is successful, the country I know and love will be gone forever. It is not that I want him to fail, but that I want the country to succeed. I am convinced that his true ideas were never vetted by the adoring press. I think he is a man who resents the United States as it is and hopes to change it so that the non- achievers are given everything. What happens when the achievers give up and say, "You know what, why should I work and achieve? Then I am told I am the evil rich." Who will be taxed when the rich are taxed at 100%? Who will give stuff to the people who have a thousand excuses why they are discriminated against, can't work, etc?
Posted by: LuK | Feb 24, 2009 2:40:36 PM
The Obama theme song is "Welcome Back Carter". The Nope & Dope Team are a joke.
Posted by: democRAT | Feb 24, 2009 2:40:51 PM
How long will it take for the Democrats to realize that GOP is stronger thanks to opposition to the stimulus and that the public is souring on Obama's partisan tendencies?
Posted by: Tom | Feb 24, 2009 2:41:02 PM
Tom: "How long will it take for the Democrats to realize that GOP is stronger thanks to opposition to the stimulus..."
November 2010, just like it took until November 2008 for the Republicans to realize how impressed the American people really were with McCain/Palin.
Posted by: jhw539 | Feb 24, 2009 2:43:34 PM
Congress didn't have time to read the "stimulus" before voting on it, and the public hasn't yet, either.
Oh, boy, when they do...
Obama missed a great opportunity here. Many on the right were willing to entertain Keynesian spending as stimulus, in addition to tax cuts.
Instead, Obama signed into law 14 years of pent-up liberal frustration in an orgasm of spending that has little bang for the buck and a huge bill for our grandkids to pay.
Bush was a frying pan, Obama is a fire. Aren't there any fools in DC willing to be responsible with my money?
Who is John Galt?
Posted by: Reign of Witches | Feb 24, 2009 2:43:39 PM
I did not vote for President Obama, but had hoped that he would not be as partisan as he has been. I had hoped that he would actually have THIS country's best interests in mind and thereby help the rest of the world. But my optimism has bee replaced by a deflated reality. He is JUST another politician. He is just another one who lies and manipulates. No matter how dire the circumstances he can not rise above it all to be a LEADER. He is afterall a fallible, corruptible human. The optimism will fade as reality hits and the poles will show it.
Posted by: DLB-Texas | Feb 24, 2009 2:44:08 PM
This article seems to fail to take into account the varying sizes of these groups. If the president has a 90% approval rating from Democrats, and 75% define themselves as Democrats, then it's a much stronger approval rating than if, say, 5% define themselves as Democrats. This may just mean that there are so many people who now say they're Democrats that those who remain in the GOP corner are more polarized, and therefore less likely to approve of Obama.
Posted by: ESS | Feb 24, 2009 2:44:12 PM
How long will it take the Lib/Dems to realize that they are breaking many promises on accountability and transparency? How can one be an obstructionist if you are just trying to keep the Dems from breaking their promises?
Posted by: Ken | Feb 24, 2009 2:45:56 PM
A government big enough to give you everything you want,is strong enough to take everything you have.
Thomas Jefferson
Posted by: Bob | Feb 24, 2009 2:48:01 PM
How in the world is the stimulus making Obama stronger? The stock market has been crashing ever since he took the lead in the polls in September 2008. It was at 11,300 back then. Now it is getting ready to drop below 7,000 headed for 5,000. This guy is a train wreck. There is ZERO confidence in his administration from Wall Street to Main Street. Jimmy Carter II, indeed.
Posted by: Seattle guy | Feb 24, 2009 2:48:17 PM
What can you say about a president with no experience, putting tax evaders and cheats in his cabinet,choosing a glad hander mouth flapper as his VP and is a puppet for the left wing nut job coalitions many of which are benefiting from his spending bill created by the left wing nut jobs like Pelosi, Reid, etc? You can't bite the hand that feeds you can ya? If the big 'uh O' was a Republican, you can be assured the media (ABC included) would be ripping him up one side and down the other.
Posted by: Gidgt | Feb 24, 2009 2:48:32 PM
"And now there’s Obama, who’s made reaching across party lines a point of principle in his presidency" What policy evidence is there that he done so? The tax cuts were actually transfer payments.
Posted by: Ed | Feb 24, 2009 2:49:49 PM
BHO is nothing more than a platitude spewing con man. I am more and more convinced that those of us who produce to support you miserable looters need to simply stop and allow you to freeze in the dark.
Who is John Galt?
Posted by: RET Jr. | Feb 24, 2009 2:50:37 PM
Ken:"How long will it take the Lib/Dems to realize that they are breaking many promises on accountability and transparency? "
About as long as it will take Republicans to realize the level of accountability and transparency is unprecedented and is second only to Obama's own rhetoric. When his second executive order is to order his Administration "The presumption of disclosure should be applied to all decisions involving FOIA" and EVERYONE agrees this is a major change from the prior administration, most of his supporters see him moving towards achieving his rhetoric.
Posted by: jhw539 | Feb 24, 2009 2:50:39 PM
It's amazing his "approval" ratings are so high considering I know of no one that thinks he's doing "ANY" job at all. It's obvious he's not in charge of anything, his handler's & Nancy,Harry etc are
Posted by: Rick | Feb 24, 2009 2:50:56 PM
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