The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Obama in Iraq
April 07, 2009 10:14 AM
In his visit today to Iraq President Obama will find a place where conditions have improved dramatically and public attitudes have followed, per our ABC/BBC/NHK poll there - but where the United States gets little credit, and relatively few expect Obama to make much difference.
In our poll, conducted in February, barely over a third of Iraqis, 35 percent, thought Obama's administration will make things better for Iraq; nearly four in 10 thought he'd make no difference and two in 10 said he'd make the situation worse. That reflects general, broad skepticism in Iraq toward the United States and its efforts there.
We found vast improvements in the country, in terms of rising security, declining violence and improved public services and economic well-being. Eighty-four percent of Iraqis now rate their own security positively, double its August 2007 level. Seventy-eight percent say their protection from crime is good, more than double its low. Three-quarters say they can go where they want safely, triple what it’s been. Fifty-eight percent say things are going well for Iraq – a new high, up from only 22 percent in 2007. More, 65 percent, say things are going well in their own lives, up from 39 percent in 2007. Confidence in the national government, local governments, the army and police all are at new highs - as is support for democracy as the preferred form of government, up sharply.
That said, serious problems remain - including increased separation between Sunnis and Shiites, continued lack of access to basics such as clean water and good medical care, continued (though lessened) Sunni Arab disaffection and rising Kurdish tensions.
For all the gains, most Iraqis, 56 percent, say it was wrong for the United States and its coalition allies to invade Iraq; never in our six polls there has a majority supported the U.S.-led war. Just 27 percent are confident in U.S. forces (albeit nearly double its low). Just 30 percent say U.S. and coalition forces have done a good job carrying out their responsibilities in Iraq. Still fewer, 18 percent, have a positive opinion of the United States overall. And 81 percent either support the current timetable for withdrawal of U.S. forces by 2011 (35 percent) – or say it should be speeded up (a plurality, 46 percent).
Back home, in terms of U.S. public opinion, in our most recent data in late February six in 10 Americans continued to say the war was not worth fighting - it's been about this high, or higher, for more than two years straight. In Newsweek data last week, three-quarters either said Obama’s timetable to remove troops is about right (46 percent) or should be speeded up (28 percent).
While the economy was the coup de grace for the Bush presidency, it is the unpopular war in Iraq that mortally wounded his administration and prompted a flight from the Republican Party whose repercussions continue. That's worth Obama's attention, not just as he visits Iraq, but more so as he sends additional U.S. forces to Afghanistan.
April 7, 2009 in International Polls, President Obama | Permalink | User Comments (26)
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Obama, : is it safe here? Did the surge i voted against work?
Yes ObamatheClown.. George Bush made you safe, Don't screw it up
Posted by: Obama the car saleman | Apr 7, 2009 10:30:17 AM
It's so sad that people are still against him. Why still hate on him, he is our president now, whether any of you like it or not. I am glad that he went there unannounced, that just means he wasn't trying to show off for in front of the public. To me it shows, that this presidency isn't all about glamour, it's about the people.
Posted by: Move on and SUPPORT | Apr 7, 2009 10:53:02 AM
"George Bush made you safe"
"Still fewer, 18 percent, have a positive opinion of the United States overall."
Yeah, I feel so much safer - no way that any terrorists can be recruited in Iraq now!
Posted by: jhw539 | Apr 7, 2009 10:53:40 AM
You Bush lovers must be so disappointd that no one threw any shoes at Obama on his visit abroad. Bush could have never hoped to be received by the world as well as Obama has been. And his popularity at home has remained stable. This must be absolutely destroying you haters. If anybody looks and acts like clowns, its the conservatives and the republicans. They got nothing but anger and nonsense to talk about. No solutions, just lies and distortions of the truth and hate-mongering to stir up their base. Keep the negativity and fear-mongering up guys, it's all you got.
Posted by: geecee | Apr 7, 2009 10:55:18 AM
You,a supporter of George Bush calling Obama a clown! That is the funniest thing I've heard in a long time. Put both men on a stage and ask them both to speak and then ask the listeners(people who don't know who they are to remove bias) to pick the clown..George Bush would win by a landslide. For eight years the world laughed at our clown for president now the world is taking notice of a real president. God bless president Barack Obama and God bless the United States of America!
Posted by: Stanley | Apr 7, 2009 10:57:21 AM
The Republicans are stuck! They cannot handle Obama..the fact is Obama know how to handle them (he's got their number). The man is simply too brilliant for the Republicans and they are distressed that they would have to deal with his brilliance for eight years. The Republican party is imploding and I just love it!
Posted by: Stanley | Apr 7, 2009 11:03:36 AM
When your party is being run by a fat clown dressed as limbaugh what else do you have?
Posted by: democratic | Apr 7, 2009 11:26:39 AM
Bush's demise was in fact due to the premeditated destruction of the housing market by Dodd, Frank and the co-conspirators who have yet to be brought to justice. Meanwhile, the Tribal Leader in Thief and his cronies in Congress are spending $1 Billion an hour and our nation is beyond bankrupt. This will eventually be their undoing as well.
Posted by: Aroleflin | Apr 7, 2009 11:34:34 AM
O'BABBLE went to Iraq to deliver the white flags for when he orders our troops to leave before the job is finished.
Posted by: Ron | Apr 7, 2009 11:40:31 AM
Ron - Iraq will never be "finished". They (the Sunnis and Shiia) are just waiting for the right moment before breaking out into civil war, it will happen and I suppose you war-mongers will all be ready to blame Obama because he took our troops out of that hellhole. We know what you are hoping for - you so want him to fail!
Posted by: geecee | Apr 7, 2009 12:12:08 PM
I'm headed for Afghanistan after 2 Iraq tours. I'm proud to serve commander & chief President Obama (and your freedom to complain). I must say morale is much higher and mission clearer under President Obama. We are proud a majority of military votes went to Obama.
Posted by: American soldier | Apr 7, 2009 12:29:44 PM
Isn't it ironic that it always takes a Minority to pick up the pieces and do what'cha gotta do? Obama has a true vision and no matter what people say he will follow through with his word...Let me be clear, this country will never move forward until we learn how to be peaceful in the USA first and for peace to exist abroad -- we must start at the home front. Obama clearly took the high road and has become a driven force and a peace maker around the World. Ratings do not lie... As an American, I have traveled to the Middle East and the majority of the Muslim people are intrigued with our culture and our life-style. Why can't those American's that are so fearful of what is out there....travel abroad and meet people whom you seem to fear and criticize. We need to stop being so arrogant and cruel to one another and support President Obama and quit complaining. I am so grateful to be an American and today I thank God we have a President who shines light into the dark.
Posted by: Lesley ABQ NM | Apr 7, 2009 12:32:13 PM
Aroleflin: Yeah, it just amazes me how Dodd, Frank, et al, were able to get their agenda across with a Republican congress and a Republican president. It sure says a lot about the Republican party no matter how you look at it.
Posted by: Bela | Apr 7, 2009 3:06:02 PM
I haven't used this forum and I think I quoted the users incorrectly. Sorry. The Obama supporters cannot say good things about Obama without bashing half of your country. I so hope this ends in spliting the country. You're such vile people to live with. We dealt with your hatred for 8 years. Now you're in complete power and still all you do is hatemongering on your fellow Americans who have a different political opinion. Republicans cannot hurt you. You have a dictatorship. Try be happyfor your accomplishment.
Posted by: pub | Apr 7, 2009 4:05:18 PM
Well, the right is getting desperate again I see gallup poll has Obama climbing in approval each time this mans goes out and people see him they are reminded of what we had and what we have.
That is why his numbers keep going up and staying up.
But hate will consume you if you let it this man is a good President and too smart for the idiots that have come to run the GOP.
Posted by: ant | Apr 7, 2009 4:35:40 PM
Let's see, in the past two days 41 dead from bombings in Iraq. That "surge" is really working its magic. Imagine how successful the surge will be when the Iraqis take over. I've got one word for you Sparky - "Vietnamization".
Posted by: Seen it before | Apr 7, 2009 4:36:24 PM
Stanley: Do it, but don't let obama have his teleprompter. Without it, he's a stumbling dufus.
Posted by: azcowboy | Apr 7, 2009 5:28:25 PM
Bela: Bone up on your history. Dems ran congress since 2006.
Posted by: azcowboy | Apr 7, 2009 5:32:18 PM
The most popular girl in town is the one that always gives in. Obama's not a girl, but------
Posted by: azcowboy | Apr 7, 2009 5:52:19 PM
Hey -- there is broad skepticism of the US here in the US too! I have little confidence that this administration could react decisively in matters of military concern, except perhaps in speed of surrender.
Posted by: ProtectFreedom | Apr 7, 2009 6:34:17 PM
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