The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
ARCHIVES
SUBJECT INDEX
RECENT POSTS
- In Afghanistan Decision, Risks Abound
- Views on the Terror Trials
- Sarah Palin: Rogue for President?
- Chasing Feathers
- Tomorrow's Elections: An Obama Referendum?
- Schwarzenegger's Nastygram: One in 10 Billion?
- Executive Pay? Cut Away
- Pols, Polls and Pushback
- On Nuclear Iran, Diplomacy and Sanctions are Preferred to Hostilities
- Polling, Politics and Nobels
MONTHLY ARCHIVES
« Previous | Main | Next »
Public Opinion on Abortion: No Easy Answer
May 18, 2009 8:14 AM
Just on cue with President Obama's visit to Notre Dame yesterday, public opinion on abortion is looking even more conflicted than usual. As the president himself suggested, it's a highly fraught subject - and one of those on which a single polling number does not begin to describe the complexity of Americans' attitudes.
The result most prominently making the rounds right now is a Gallup poll in which more people call themselves "pro-life" than "pro-choice," by 51-42 percent, a first since Gallup started asking the question in 1995. But that's not a new result in other polls, nor is it one in which all recent data are consistent. And in any case this question is not a test of policy preferences; that approach gets a different kind of answer.
While Gallup gets a 51-42 percent "pro-life" vs. "pro-choice" division, a CNN poll that asked the same question last month got a 45-49 percent split - slightly more for “pro-choice.” Moreover, CNN had it 50-45 percent - more for “pro-life” - back in May 2007. Thus this is a measure on which sentiment moves around a bit, and one on which something like Gallup’s current result has been seen before, by CNN two years ago.
This question, in any case, is essentially message testing, not policy testing. The reality is that most people are both “pro-life” and “pro-choice” (both highly charged terms) at once. Public opinion on abortion is complicated, even conflicted, and heavily dependent on circumstances. Most people think it’s between a women and her doctor, but most also object to it on moral grounds; many accept it when it’s needed, but not as a casual matter. This has been so for many years.
Since many people have both “pro-life” and “pro-choice” sentiments simultaneously, the recent inconsistent readings (more below) could reflect a sense that with Democrats in control of the White House and Congress, over-liberalization rather than over-restriction is the greater current risk. It could also reflect a gearing-up related to the pending vacancy on the Supreme Court. It'll take more data to know.
Our own standard, policy-based question asks people if they think abortion should be legal in all or most cases or illegal in all or most cases. We last asked it in September and got a net 57-39 percent legal-illegal, about the average since 1995. A Quinnipiac poll asked it last month and got 52-41 percent legal-illegal. That 52 percent is a new low for Quinnipiac, but not significantly. It was 53 percent in 2004.
Pew, however, asked this same question last month, and found a closer 46-44 percent legal-illegal split, compared with 54-41 percent in August.
Gallup itself asks the policy question differently; it has 53 percent saying abortion should be legal "only under certain circumstances," 22 percent legal in all circumstances and 23 percent illegal in all circumstances. It’s had legal in "certain circumstances” both higher and lower in the past.
The crux, perhaps, is what those circumstances are; we tested a variety of them in our 30-year Roe vs. Wade poll back in 2003, with quite a range of responses. See the results here.
In the end, the instability across the current polls is unusual, and tough to pin down. It could mean a reassessment is under way - we've seen recent change in other social attitudes, some in a more conservative direction, others in a more liberal one. It could reflect the growing polarization we see in political views more generally. It could, again, be related to the current situation in Washington.
So what's the best approach to understanding current attitudes on abortion? The first is to steer away from firm conclusions until attitudes resolve themselves in clear and consistent measurement. The second, as ever, is to look not just at the results, but at the questions being asked - and to recognize that public opinion on such a difficult issue is far more complex than a single number can resolve.
Addendum, 5/19, 9 a.m.: A new CNN poll released after this posting underscores the reasons to proceed very cautiously with Gallup's "pro-life" result. CNN found a substantial majority, 68 percent, saying the Supreme Court should not "completely overturn" Roe vs. Wade - matching the high in sporadic askings since 1989.
Given their conflicted views, this looks to be one issue that most people would just like left alone.
May 18, 2009 in Social Issues | Permalink | User Comments (15)
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.
What I read into the poll is the shift on Public Opinion as to what it means to be Pro-Life or Pro-Choice. That is more people who think that abortion should be legal with some restrictions see themselves as pro-life.
The attitude of abortion on demand is shifting.
Posted by: Thinking | May 18, 2009 9:00:19 AM
Where do you place me? I believe that life is precious and abortion is immoral. I also believe it is not the government's business to venture into a woman's woumb even if I believe that the embryo is life. While I chose life for me personally, I also don't believe we should criminalize abortion (for you can't stop it). Am I inconsistant? May be. But I don't care about being inconsistant, just right!
Posted by: Zazu | May 18, 2009 10:55:15 AM
Besides my belief that abortion is an irresponsible person's choice to murder an innocent child, another issue I have with the right to abort is how the courts rule in cases where a pregnant woman is hurt or murdered. If abortion is legal, and it defines a fetus as a non-human thing, then in cases where a pregnant woman is hurt or murdered, the perpetrator should only be charged with endangering or murdering one life, not two, since the fetus is considered non-human. Also, if the sperm donor/man will have no say in whether the pregnant woman aborts the fetus or not, a man should not be obligated to pay any type of restitution to financially support something he has no co-control over, or for an event he has no say so in. It is an injustice to make someone legally responsible for something they have no say in. The problem with the abortion issue is that it relieves the woman of her irresponsibility but still holds man accountable to something the courts say is non-human. It is wrong.
Posted by: Harrell | May 18, 2009 12:29:42 PM
Abortion is not a form of contraceptive. It is murder. If we can look in to the face of the Child we are killing, we would do it? IF YOU CAN’T SEE THEIR FACE, YOU CANNOT FEEL THEIR PAIN AND GRIEF. They CRY silently.
Posted by: Sandy Obu | May 18, 2009 7:08:26 PM
I agree with a woman's right to choose, but I do think we have too many abortions. With all the birth control options we have today, I don't see any reason for so many abortions.
Posted by: voted 3rd party | May 18, 2009 7:54:23 PM
In typical right wing fashion the article cherry picks polls to make a case for Republican arguments. They left out this recent poll: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. May 14-17, 2009. N=1,010 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"The 1973 Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe versus Wade decision, or not?"
Results: Yes, overturn: 30%
No, Not overturn: 68%
Not sure:m 1%
Doesn't anyone see through this propaganda?
Posted by: Joe | May 18, 2009 8:39:34 PM
The problem is not abortion, the problem is out of control immorality. If we could correct that, there wouldn't need to be any abortions-Us old folks call it shutting the barn door after the horse has been stolen. I am a pro-choice Christian that sees Roe vs Wade as being an update to Old Testament Law-If a single woman ga ot pregnant, she was brought up before the village Elders and if she had not fought off a rape attempt, she was tied to a pole and stoned to death. Strangely, there wasn't a real problem with illicit sex in those days! Thanks to modern technology, we can now safely remove the fetus and Mom lives on. Before everyone gets on my case, I do have another soluition. Use DNA to determine the male counterpart involved in the pregnancy and make them responsible for the care and upbringing of the child or his parents if underage along with the mother. It's called personal responsibility instead of tax payer paid "Free" love!
Posted by: Dave of Detroit | May 19, 2009 12:05:07 AM
Abortion should be left to the woman who wants it. The same goes for same sex marriage. That should be up to the individual. Why does everyone else have to have an opinion. It is their choice -- not yours!
Posted by: Bunny Music | May 19, 2009 10:31:24 AM
When will I get polled? Just for the record, I'm 100% in favor of free choice and 100% opposed to the anti-abortionists. A fetus is not a child until it is born. Period.
Posted by: Brian Jones | May 19, 2009 10:44:47 AM
Telling me to compromise on the murder of innocent babies in the womb Is like when the devil tempted Jesus AND I say no!!!!!!!!! TO THE DEVIL. It is like signing a pact with the devil. The pro-choicers are evil. killing the baby to save the life of the mother is a lie. It does not help to save the mother except in tubal pregnancy maybe. Even in a tubal pregnancy both the baby and the mother are at high risk of losing their lives. A tubal prgnancy would result in a high risk of death during for the mother and a 100% risk of death for the baby. Tubal pregnancies do not occur as often as the rate of abortions per day in America. The rate of abortions taking place in America on average is over 3,000 a day. There is no way that these abortionsw are becuase of tubal pregnanies. Abortions because of a matter of life and death of the mother are very rare and even then like in an emrgency ceserean the baby and the mother have a high survival rate because of medical knowledge and kind doctors who really believe in their quest to save lives and the sanctity of life as the purpose of their life as human beings. There can not be doctors who believe in killin babies for no other reason than a woman's right to order the death of her baby. The reason for so many abortions taking the baby's life is that most abortions are taking place because of cold-blooded choice. 999,999 abortions are cold-blooded choice. That means that maybe one out of million abortons are committecd because of a matter of life and death of the mother. It is always a matter of DEATH FOR THE BABY.
Posted by: Patricia Spillman | May 19, 2009 11:09:22 AM
The quack doctors are waiting in anticipation the dark ally's all over America with their wire coat-hangers in hand! Back to the stone age! If you don't believe in abortion . . . then don get an abortion. BUT if we do outlaw abortion, PLEASE put quality sex education in our schools as a required claass. Sadly I know of MANY women who don't believe in it, but have them anyway. When will we learn. Keep the government out of our personal lives!
Posted by: Kent Torch | May 19, 2009 12:09:16 PM
The problem is that "pro-choice" supporters don't want to finish the sentence, "I support the woman's right to choose ______." Fill in the blank - How did our society every get to the point where that could even be thought of as a choice?! The choice comes at the point of deciding to have sex when you're not ready to have a child...I support that choice. But, be willing to live with the consequences of your choice...not commit murder as a "choice."
Posted by: justmeor | May 19, 2009 2:28:58 PM
Abortion is wrong except in cases of rape, incest or your own personal tragedy or your daughter or sister or wife or cousin and then well that is okay. Bunch of hypocrites, until all the unwanted babies are held in the loving arms of these anti-abortion zealots, and no child is left to adopt, then I might be closer to seeing their point. If not, then shut up, you meddling busybodies of other people's morality. Leave it between a woman, her doctor and her religion.
Posted by: realchristian | May 19, 2009 10:34:22 PM
Don't believe in abortion, then for god's sake don't have one...no one is forcing ya, this is not China. But don't force your religion on others, and we won't force ours on you. We have birth control now, but it is not 100% effective and until it is, or until there are no babies born without birth defects, then folks have to make hard choices. Judge not least ye be judged, as the good book says. Leave that kind of thing to the Lord, why don't ya, my good christian friends.
Posted by: Choiceismychoice | May 19, 2009 10:42:44 PM
"Most people think it's between a woman and her doctor, but most also object to it on moral grounds; many accept it when it's needed, but not as a casual matter." To me, this is a clearly pro-choice perspective, as is the option (2) in your conclusion. Furthermore, I am not clear why those positions are incompatible - and not clear and consistent. You think it's bad to terminate a pregnancy under most circumstances, but under some circumstances, it's permissible. How far the law should go in involving the government in regulating the decision is the question.
Posted by: M | May 24, 2009 12:44:38 PM
Post a comment
