The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Demand May Outstrip Initial Supply for Swine Flu Vaccine
August 19, 2009 10:00 AM
Public demand for the swine flu vaccine may outstrip the initial supply, with nearly two-thirds of Americans saying they or a household member would get the vaccination if their doctor recommended it. Still, concern about catching the virus remains muted – and confidence in health authorities to handle it is high.
Fifty-five percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’ll get the vaccine when it’s available, rising to 65 percent if their doctor recommends it. Initial availability may be an issue, though: Blaming production delays, federal officials Monday cut their estimate of the number of doses expected to be available by mid-October by two-thirds, to 45 million, with 20 million a week to follow.
Authorities said there’d still be enough vaccine initially available for the target groups of pregnant women, children under four and public health workers. Separately, a trio of Cabinet officials – the secretaries of commerce, health and human services and homeland security – were to hold a news conference today announcing flu-season guidelines for employers and businesses.
WORRY and CONFIDENCE – While interest in vaccinations is high, worry is not. Thirty-nine percent of Americans are very or somewhat worried that they or someone in their household will catch the swine flu virus, also known as H1N1; that includes just 13 percent worried “a great deal.” Sixty-one percent, instead, express little or no worry about catching the virus.
That’s very similar to the level of concern about contracting bird flu in 2006 (41 percent worried, including 13 percent very worried), and SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, in 2003 (a peak of 38 percent worried, 11 percent very worried). Views on swine flu may be informed by the fact that these other recent threats ultimately did not affect large numbers of Americans.
Past experience also may be bolstering confidence in the ability of the health care system to respond: Eighty-two percent in this poll express confidence in their local hospitals and health agencies to respond effectively to a swine flu outbreak; 73 percent express confidence in a federal response. Both these are much higher (by 18 and 14 points, respectively) than the levels of confidence in response to a possible bird flu outbreak in 2006.
Fewer – 33 percent and 23 percent, respectively – are “very” confident in the local or federal response. But these, too, are higher than in 2006.
GROUPS – Expectedly, worried people are far more apt to say they or someone in the household will get vaccinated – 74 percent, vs. 43 percent of those who aren’t worried about catching the flu. A doctor’s recommendation would not significantly affect the rate among worried people, but would sharply boost it, to 58 percent, among those now unworried about swine flu.
Seniors are far more apt than others to say they’d get vaccinated, whether there’s a doctor’s recommendation or not. Women are more apt than men to say someone in the household will get a vaccination, 59 percent vs. 50 percent, but that rises to about two-thirds of women and men alike if their doctor recommends it.
Worry about getting the flu, for its part, peaks among women (46 percent, vs. 30 percent of men); those 40 and older (45 percent worried, vs. 26 percent of those under 30); and less-educated adults (46 percent of those who haven’t gone beyond high school, vs. 33 percent of others). Worry’s no higher, though, among people who have a child under 18 at home.
Click here for a pdf of this analysis with full questions.
August 19, 2009 in Health Care | Permalink | User Comments (4)
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The government has had an adequate amount of time to prepare for this vaccine, but from this report the vaccine will not be available. Production delays??? Come on. . and now the government thinks they can handle health care for all of the citizens in this country. I don't think so!!
Posted by: mary1184 | Aug 19, 2009 7:27:15 PM
I would never consent without full disclosure of the contents. Absolutely no squalene, no mercury and absolutely no live virus, and the manufacturing and distributing companies wave immunity from being sued in writing for lying about any of their representations.
I hugely object to any vaccination being required against my free will, or any punishment for refusing a vaccination.
I think a far greater discussion of Vitamin C, Vitamin D3, garlic, grapefruit seed extract and other natural methods of flu prevention or lessening, as written about by actual physicians/doctors/and our own government, must be given to the general public.
For example our own US Dept of Ag lists four different flu that grapefruit seed extract kills.
I am not a doctor and nothing I've said is to be construed as giving medical advise. Quote doctors. See Nutrition Reporter August/Sept 2009 page 18
"Drug Ads Influence Coverage of Supplements"
Posted by: Elaine S | Aug 19, 2009 8:25:01 PM
I could have written this story a month ago...gee, what a surprise.
Oh, that new bridge the city wants to put in down the block. It's budgeted at $5 million...when it's open, it will go over budget by 120%. Surprise. And the city council said no new taxes,
Well, they didn't mean they wouldn't raise them because everyone in government had to have their annual cost of living raise.
This is news?
Roger F
Posted by: Roger Fulton | Aug 20, 2009 8:01:57 PM
mary1184, do you know that private companies make our vaccines, not 'the government'?
And no bill is saying the government will handle our health care, that is a false statement. The proposal for public health insurance would only give a government organized health insurance available for purchase, just like Medicare is a government run health insurance. Note the word insurance, it is not health care but health care insurance. Two completely different things. Since the majority of those on Medicare are happy enough with it to fight any talk of taking it away, I'd say that proves a public health insurance plan would work just fine for its customers.
I think that the authors of those comments criticizing the government for not making the vaccines fast enough need to read up on vaccines.
If you understand the science behind it, you would understand why it takes many months to create and then make millions of doses of any vaccine. There honestly isn't any way to safely speed it up, unless the privately run businesses that make them want to build a bunch of new labs. And I don't see that as a reasonable business decision for them, as the public's interest in getting a vaccine historically waxes and wanes. There have been many years they have been left holding millions of doses of vaccines they had to destroy at year's end.
Posted by: Lydia | Aug 25, 2009 8:41:15 AM
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