The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer provides public opinion polling, analysis and consulting services to ABC News through Langer Research Associates, a company he founded in 2010 after more than a decade as ABC's polling director. Langer has won two News Emmy awards and eight Emmy nominations for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls, as well as the 2010 Policy Impact Award of the American Association for Public Opinion Research for a six-year series of national surveys in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Numbers blog was honored last year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Sarah Palin: Rogue for President?
November 16, 2009 8:00 AM
The buildup to her new book hasn’t eased Sarah Palin’s political challenges: Just over half of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll have an unfavorable opinion of her overall, as many say they wouldn’t consider supporting her for president and more – six in 10 – see her as unqualified for the job.
These views are much like they’ve been for the past year, when initially favorable responses to Palin’s selection as the Republican vice presidential nominee quickly turned down in the heat of the 2008 campaign.
Today 43 percent of Americans express a favorable opinion of Palin overall, while 52 percent see her unfavorably. Favorability is the most basic measure of a public figure’s popularity; in politics, where majorities win, it’s trouble when it goes negative, as it’s been for Palin since October 2008.
Intensity is against her as well: considerably more see her “strongly” unfavorably, 34 percent, than strongly favorably, 20 percent.
Fifty-three percent say they definitely would not vote for Palin if she were to run for president in 2012; that compares with 9 percent who say they’d definitely support her, while the rest, 37 percent, would consider it. (For comparison, in a 2006 ABC/Post poll fewer flatly ruled out Hillary Clinton, 42 percent, and fewer still wouldn’t consider John McCain, 28 percent.)
Palin moreover fails a basic hurdle on the road to the White House, were she to choose to take it: Just 38 percent of Americans see her as qualified to serve as president; 60 percent think she’s not qualified for the job.
Palin’s book, “Going Rogue: An American Life,” is being published this week. She’s interviewed by Barbara Walters in a five-part series beginning on ABC’s “Good Morning America” tomorrow, with the full interview on 20/20 Friday evening.
GROUPS – Political and ideological sentiment are prime factors in Palin’s ratings. Seventy-six percent of Republicans view her favorably, but that dives to 45 percent of independents and just 21 percent of Democrats. Her overall rating is held down by the fact that Republicans have accounted for fewer than a quarter of all Americans lately, 21 percent in this poll.
Similarly, Palin’s seen favorably by 60 percent of conservatives, compared with 38 percent of moderates and 22 percent of liberals.
Palin’s rated favorably by more men, 48 percent, than women, 39 percent; one reason is that women are more apt to be Democrats. She’s also notably less popular with young adults – just 37 percent of those under age 30 see her favorably, compared with 49 percent of seniors.
Beyond Republicans, she does best, a 65 percent favorable rating, among evangelical white Protestants.
Other gauges tell a similar story. Just under a quarter of Republicans rule out supporting her for president; that rises to half of independents and three-quarters of Democrats. And 61 percent of Republicans see Palin as qualified for the presidency – an underwhelming score in her own party, and one that falls to 37 percent of independents and 22 percent among Democrats.
Ideologically, as well, Palin stumbles outside her base. Conservatives are less likely than others to flatly rule out voting for her; 36 percent do so, compared with 56 percent of moderates and 79 percent of liberals. And 56 percent of conservatives think she is qualified to serve as president – another tepid score on this basic question, but much better than it is among moderates (30 percent see her as qualified) or liberals (18 percent).
Palin’s ratings are a comedown from the days just after her nomination briefly captured the public’s imagination. At her peak, in an ABC/Post poll Sept. 7, 2008, 58 percent viewed her favorably. Some of her steepest declines since then have come in the political center, down by 15 points among independents and by 20 points among moderates.
Click here for full results, and check back for more on this new ABC/Post poll later.
Click here for a table with Palin ratings by groups.
November 16, 2009 | Permalink | User Comments (132)
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>yawn<
Is it almost over? I'm seriously tired of reading about a has-been "rogue" wannabe and her book already.
Posted by: Joe in CA | Nov 16, 2009 8:22:22 AM
I am one of those wild card independents, who voted for Obama. Having said that, I know many independents including myself, who are keeping an open mind and seeing how things develop. Remember Ronald Reagan? Nobody gave him a chance. What were his qualifications... an actor who became governor. The rest is history.
Posted by: beaumont45 | Nov 16, 2009 8:26:57 AM
Isn't it rather absurd to even have the notion that this woman would even run for the presidency?--no less--actually become the president of our country?
To even entertain the thought is crazy--whe wrote a book to earn herself some cash...and she bailed out on being gov. of Alaska to do so...she's alienated herself from her own party--and comes off as shallow and phoney...it's unfortunate that the media is giving her so much attention with this book..all she did was trash the media in it.
Posted by: Jule | Nov 16, 2009 8:29:02 AM
Oh, please, come on. How many colleges did she have to go through before she found one that would give her a degree? She's a beauty queen and a sportscaster, there's no indication whatsoever of any skill in diplomacy. Much less any knowledge of history. How can any of the American public, even the reactionary far right, consider her for anything?
A rogue? Now she's biting the hand that created her.
Posted by: Baycat57 | Nov 16, 2009 8:29:50 AM
Palin - Prejean, GOP Dream ticket in 2012?
Posted by: Candide | Nov 16, 2009 8:30:30 AM
"Just over half of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll have an unfavourable opinion of her overall"
Is that not exactly the same for the Socialist piece of crap in the White House right now. The liberals hate and fear her, that tells me she would be a great conservative President.
Posted by: Regulas | Nov 16, 2009 8:32:28 AM
Palin would be a far better President than either Bush was or Obama is. Bush had no brain power, Obama has too much, he is college professor. I see from Obama's actions now, why he voted only "present" as a senator ... liike 500 times... he is unable to make a decision. Palin is an experienced LEADER! Look at her RECORD not her sutpid leftist critics. She would, she WILL lead and not be led. And she is smart enough not be a washingtonite "politician". Well, by 2012 things will be soooo bad in our Country that Palin maybe the ONLY ONE who can radically change it.
Posted by: george | Nov 16, 2009 8:33:54 AM
As long as the Democrats are afraid of Palin ABC, NBC, MSNBC and all the other Obamatoids will continue to cover her.
Posted by: Harry G | Nov 16, 2009 8:34:06 AM
Will it ever go away??!! What's all the hysteria about her?? You don't see any other ex-vice president contenders get this much attention. They fell from the spotlight the day after election day. They had just as much to say (more so) than this plastic person. I've said it before: McCain camp created a monster when she was chosen to be McCain's running mate. She is no better than Levi going around dishing dirt!
Posted by: zane | Nov 16, 2009 8:35:39 AM
The fact that this woman is even in the news is a sad sad statement on how far the NEWS intellect of the U.S. has fallen.
Furthermore the fact that 4 out of 6 think she is qualified for ANY public office - after she ditched the job of being elected Governor of the state of Alaska goes to show how utterly out of touch with reality these people are.
Sara Palin is George Bush Times Two. She is a religious cult member that believes God has chosen her and she would be very dangerous if ever elected to a high public office. She WILL push the button.
Posted by: GeoLa | Nov 16, 2009 8:44:37 AM
"The liberals hate and fear her"
Actually, I find her entertaining. Every once in a while I utter her name, just to make people around me crack up!....
Posted by: Henry B | Nov 16, 2009 8:45:54 AM
"How can any of the American public, even the reactionary far right, consider her for anything?"
Because there are alot of stupid people around... and you can't fix stupid!
Posted by: Ken | Nov 16, 2009 8:46:46 AM
OK OK........ she's a ROGUE!!! Now shut up about her!!! Anything to make her go away!! GEEZ!!!!!
Posted by: jks | Nov 16, 2009 8:50:54 AM
With huge ratings among republicans, conservatives and evangelicals she has a very good chance at winning the republican nomination. Ms Palin's candidacy may be Obama's best hope for winning reelection. It will take a Palin candidacy for Obama to overcome the negatives of a stalled economy, high unemployment and bad outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Posted by: svcleaves | Nov 16, 2009 8:54:10 AM
Sure you can fix stupid, Just don't vote for Obama again. I won't..
Posted by: Anthony | Nov 16, 2009 8:58:18 AM
If she runs, I'll pay attention to her policies and platforms. I won't judge her by what the media tells me to think of her and I won't vote for her or anyone else on personality or appearance. Things are getting too messed up to run presidential elections like American Idol.
Posted by: Kathy | Nov 16, 2009 8:58:36 AM
Has she read her own book? Does she really know what the content is?
And... all of this hogwash about the great numbers of people that are flocking to her Facebook page - you have to know they don't want to be her friend...
Posted by: MichaelB | Nov 16, 2009 9:05:48 AM
Why does it so rarely come up that the woman QUIT her governership?!? Just up and QUIT... yeah, that's the can-do mentality we need in the presidency. Ugh...
Posted by: Django | Nov 16, 2009 9:05:50 AM
Here's the fact:
THE ONLY people asking the question about Sarah Palin being President are THE ONLY people who answer themselves. I.E. liberals. "Will Sarah Run in 2012?" then the same person says back to themselves "anybody who thinks she is qualified is crazy!" or my favorite: "let her run, it will be easy for Obama to win in 2012!"
Conservatives are not picking a Presidential candidate for a long time now, we still have the Republican Party to re-build, 2010 to pick up seats in the House and Senate, and a lead-up to 2012 to repeal a lot of the horrible law put in by the liberals of the Pelosi-House and Reid-Senate.
While Obama has been a total flop, it is not entirely his fault. He has his liberal base and the liberals in Congress. When conservatives sweep in 2010, things just might turn around for him. Just as Bill Clinton did with Newt Gingrich from 1994-2000, if President Obama simply signs every piece of legislation created by a Congress run by conservatives, he like Bill Clinton could merely take credit for thoses successes.
But here's something liberals don't know: Conservatives have always had a proven ability to see right through them.
What does one make of a liberal who asks if Sarah Palin will be President only to re-assure themselves that she won't?
And why are the media asking specific questions about a 2012 election with only regard to her and her only?
Not one conservative is or has endorsed Palin. So one needs to find out - why are the liberals in the media and on these forums as disturbed with obvious-worry about her? Just a year ago, they proclaimed she'd be forgotten. As usual, it looks like they are never right.
I love Sarah. She is reportedly earning many millions from this book. She has a huge following, a massive appeal, and right now has more power in the arena of public discourse than Obama does anyway. Should it matter if she does or does not take the official title from him?
Either way, she's going to campaign for candidates, remain powerful, strengthen her resources, and continue to be something liberals scream their head over.
On the chance she won't run in 2012, I guarantee libs, she's sticking around and will remain enormously popular. I think it's wonderful how she has you attention now.
Much love to her!
Posted by: Steve | Nov 16, 2009 9:38:04 AM
"Isn't it rather absurd to even have the notion that this woman would even run for the presidency?--no less--actually become the president of our country? "
lol
Compare Palin's lengthy resume to Obama's 1/2 page double spaced list of failures.
Posted by: Harry G | Nov 16, 2009 9:44:01 AM
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