'Fight Is Over': Clinton Needed Big Victory, Obama Emerged on Top

May 07, 2008 8:02 AM

ABC's Rick Klein, with Mike Elmore, blog in today's Note:

The question that is now astoundingly close to being the most urgent one in the presidential race: Does Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton see a distinction between the good of the Clintons, the good of the Democratic Party, and the good of the country?

On the night that Clinton needed a resounding victory, it was Sen. Barack Obama who emerged on top -- and, by bouncing back from the biggest challenge to his candidacy, went a long way toward answering the questions that had left him battered and bruised (not even counting what happened on the basketball court.

Clinton, D-N.Y., lost precious ground in delegates, votes, and momentum -- with margins that all-but wiped out her pick-ups from Pennsylvania two weeks ago. They both won a state, but Obama's was bigger, and was called far earlier; under the Wright-infused circumstances (and given the Clinton Campaign's intense late efforts) his margin in North Carolina was jaw-dropping, while hers in Indiana was jaw-clenching.

Continue reading the Note here.

May 7, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Battling Data: What Gives?

May 05, 2008 12:37 PM

Polling Director Gary Langer blogs:

There were at least a few crossed eyes today over conflicting data and analysis in the latest New York Times/CBS and USA Today/Gallup polls. We share your pain.

Briefly: Times/CBS has Barack Obama +12 vs. Hillary Clinton, with a headline saying Obama “survives furor” over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. USAT/Gallup has Clinton +7, saying the flap over Wright “pulls Obama down.” Adding to the mix is Gallup’s daily poll, which has Obama +4.

These polls also differ in their general election match-ups: Times/CBS has Obama +11 and Clinton +12 vs. John McCain, while USAT/Gallup has them basically tied. Gallup daily has Clinton-McCain tied, McCain +5 vs. Obama.

Before we get into what gives, we’ll use this as an opportunity to repeat our long-standing advice to de-emphasize the horse race in pre-election polls. It is lowest-common-denominator reporting. And in poll-to-poll comparisons it’s the single most unstable measure we see. (Just a few weeks ago Newsweek had Obama +19 and Gallup daily had him +3 on the same day. Aagh.)

Continue reading on Gary's The Numbers blog.

May 5, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Hillary's Horse

May 03, 2008 7:05 PM

Senior Political Correspondent and Political Punch author Jake Tapper blogs:

Tragedy struck the first filly in the Kentucky Derby since 1999, as Eight Belles went down on the track after her second-place finish today, broke two ankles, and was euthanized.

Showing a sisterhood with the female horse, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., during a trip to Louisville this week had said she was going to bet on Eight Belles to win, place, and show.

ABC News' Karen Travers reports that Clinton told supporters in Jeffersonville, Ind., earlier this week, "I hope that everybody will go to the derby on Saturday and place just a little money on the filly for me. I won’t be able to be there this year -- my daughter is going to be there and so she has strict instructions to bet on Eight Belles."

Continue reading on Jake's Political Punch blog.

May 3, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Death and Your Digital Trail

April 30, 2008 3:30 PM

Science correspondent Ned Potter blogs:

Someone has posed a heartbreaking question on Slashdot this morning: "A good friend of mine had her younger brother apparently commit suicide last week. He was a young, promising CS major who was close to being accepted into a very prestigious school."

There was no suicide note, no explanation for the young man's death, says the writer.  "Some members of the family are hoping to find something, anything, that might explain why this all went down. Since I'm the most computer-skilled person the family knows, they have asked me if I could help them try to find some information. My possible approaches are: his Linux laptop, his university, Gmail And Hotmail email accounts, and a second MySpace profile that apparently has been tagged as private. How ethical would it be to, say, try to crack his root password in a situation like this?"

Continue reading on Ned's Science and Society blog.

April 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Environmentalists Pick Campaign 'Targets'

April 28, 2008 3:56 PM

Science correspondent Ned Potter blogs:

For fifteen years, there were few Congressmen more reviled by major environmental groups than Richard Pombo, a California Republican who opposed provisions of the Endangered Species Act and other federal laws.  The League of Conservation Voters gave him a lifetime "score" on environmental issues of 7%.

In 2006, they say, they got him voted out of office -- and his successor, Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, scored 90% last year in his votes on environmental issues.

Now it's 2008, and the environmental groups have new "targets" (their word) in Congress. They say their main goal is for the Senate to be "receptive to change" (read: have a veto-proof majority of 60) if, as they advocate, there is national legislation to combat climate change. 

They say they are backing three Senate hopefuls in particular.

Continue reading on Ned's Science and Society blog.

April 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)