« Previous | Main | Next »

Line jumping in ‘08

July 22, 2006 4:58 PM

Our Political Unit’s Teddy Davis blogs about how Nevada could shake-up the 2008 election:

After years of discussion, a DNC committee voted today to shake up its 2008 presidential calendar.

The voting will still begin in Iowa. But if the recommen- dations of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee are followed, the Democrats will next compete in a Nevada caucus before moving on to the New Hampshire primary. (Left: A voting line for Nevada's 2004 caucus.)

Astute observers no doubt recall that Nevada is the home state of Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. But how much of this is Reid-driven?

It certainly didn’t hurt -- but apart from being Reid’s home state -- Nevada has important attributes that make it attractive to Democrats.

Like Arizona (the runner-up to Nevada among the states competing to hold the new early caucus), Nevada has a growing Hispanic population. 

But unlike Arizona, Nevada had the backing of the AFL-CIO which is eager to make additional inroads unionizing the multitude of hotel workers in Las Vegas.

Nevada is also seen as more likely than Arizona to flip from Republican to Democratic in 2008. Nevada voted for President Bush by 4 points in 2000 and by only 2 points in 2004. By contrast, President Bush expanded his margin of victory in Arizona from 6 points in 2000 to 11 points in 2004.

So they're planning changes before New Hampshire, but what about after?
And which candidate(s) will it help or hurt?

It just so happens that former Clinton White House deputy chief of staff Harold Ickes sits on the same DNC committee. Today, he did not disappoint -- warning Democrats not to make the South Carolina primary the first contest after New Hampshire on the theory that John Edwards somehow owns it. (Left: Ickes testifies on Capitol Hill in 1997.)

That idea was dismissed as “nutty” by fellow panel-member Carol Khare Fowler of South Carolina who said: “They’re already coming.” (Right: Clinton at a press conference last week.)

“If she runs, she may decide to go into South Carolina,” Ickes told ABC News about Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 2008 plans. “But what I’m saying is the odds are against it.”

Ickes’ comments were seen by most observers not as a signal that Sen. Clinton would not compete in South Carolina but rather as an early effort on the part of a Clinton ally to lower expectations. Edwards won South Carolina over Kerry by 15 points in 2004.

Joe Erwin, the chairman of South Carolina’s Democratic Party, thought such expectations-setting was unnecessary on the part of Ickes given that 49 percent of the voters in the state’s 2004 Democratic presidential primary were African American.

July 22, 2006 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (0)

User Comments

Post a comment

Name:

Email Address:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comments: