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North Korea's Missile Tests: Saber Rattling or Rocket's Red Glare?

July 05, 2006 12:12 PM

Anthony Cordesman -- the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Stragegy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an ABC News consultant -- blogs:

Taepodong2 If one asks whether North Korea's missile tests were political posturing or serious military efforts, the answer is easy. It is both. North Korea clearly chose the fourth of July as a date it knew would irritate and provoke the US and “show the world” it could not be intimidated by American demands to halt its tests. It benefited from the irony of a US space launch on the same day, and the very different kind of fireworks that American's use to celebrate their independence. (At left, the Taepodong-2 missile. Courtesy BBC.)

LandingareaNorth Korea also knew that it was sending an even more direct signal to its neighbors: Japan and South Korea. It was showing that it could ignore their main military ally, and efforts at regional persuasion from both those states and China. It simultaneously put pressure on the US to directly negotiate on North Korean terms and on the region to find compromises that suited North Korea. (At right, a map of missile landing locations. Courtesy BBC.)

It is easy to dismiss such actions on the grounds they are “irrational” or will “backfire.” It is far from clear that this is the case. Even testing a large number of missiles at once makes good sense from a North Korean perspective. It gets everything done at one, rather than staggers out the political cost over weeks or months. It prevents preemption of future tests. It tends to bury the fact a major series of short/medium range tests took place under the impact of the longer-range test, and the success of the shorter range missile tests guarded against the possible failure of the test of the larger, long-range missile.

“Stupid” or “reckless” - not really. North Korea may or may not face a few hard weeks or months in reprisal, but it has reminded everyone of just how serious a threat North Korea can be, how limited most military options are, and how serious the risks of any major war would be. Kim Jong Il will never be a poster boy, but this is the kind of political posturing that can easily succeed over the long run, and which may or may not have even short or mid-term consequences of a kind that will impact on North Korea's ruling elite.

We've also posted several clips from our past coverage of the North Korean nuclear threat: [WATCH]

July 5, 2006 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (1)

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JUNE 5, 2009, THE DAY PAST THE NORTH KOREAN MISSILE THREAT. Regardless
whether it was only a passing idle threat or, if Hawaii, Alaska or Southren California is
no longer on the map, this situation will never be over from this day and time on. North
Korea has nuclear weapons, it is only a matter of time before Iran has them, if they don't
already. And as each year goes by, it seems that more countries are attempting to
develope their own nuclear weapons...including those countries who sponsor terrorist
organizations. It's becoming very clear, to anyone who is willing to see things as they
are, that this world we live in gets more dangerous as time goes on. If you really want to
be honest with yourself, consider in your own mind, do you suppose it is only a matter
of time before a nuclear war breaks loose on this planet? I wouldn't want to be a
nonbeliever when it happens. Earlier this year, I made a sincere decission to call upon
the Lord for forgiviness of the sins in my life, and repented from sin for the remission of
sins. (No one in this life will ever be perfect...you still try) I'm now 55 years old, and for
years I fooled myself with the notion that everything will work out fine as it was. If you
have never became a christian, YOU ARE PLAYING THE FOOL, AS I WAS FOR THE
PAST 54 YEARS...AND PLAYING THE FOOL WITH YOUR OWN SOUL. Have you
ever considered whether you will have advanced warning if your hometown became the
target for an approaching nuclear missile. Most likely not. Do you think your government
is willing to panic it's people who they cannot save anyway? Television shows will
not be interupted by "special news bulletins". The Emergancy Broadcast System will
not air on radio. You'll hear no air raid sirens. No hysterical people in the streets. There
will be no mass of people killing and running over each other in a mad rush to get away
from town as far and as fast as they possibly can. And no one who is not already a
christian will be making last minute decissions to call upon the Lord...No one will know
what's coming. When the initial nuclear flash hits, this life is over in a billointh of a
second. Those who are not saved will suddenly be in Hell, wondering what happened
and how they got there so quickly, while the thurmosphere explosion is still scortching
away the ground where their hometown was only seconds before. If you go to Hell lost,
and someday stand before God in judgement before you and the rest of Hell are cast
into the Lake of Fire for eternity, you will remember each time someone spoke to you
about your spiritual condition...including what you've just read.
Some people believe the Lake of Fire is the molten core of the Earth. Would you bet
your soul it's not?

Posted by: Harry | Jul 2, 2009 5:27:19 PM

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