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Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Unstoppable?
May 15, 2007 10:45 AM
ABC News consultant Jacqueline Shire blogs:
ABC News’ Brian Ross reported April 2 that Iran had installed some 1,000 centrifuges at an underground enrichment facility at Natanz, and that work continued at a steady, deliberate pace. The New York Times picks up on the story today with word that Iran now has 1,300 centrifuges enriching uranium gas to low levels of enrichment -- suitable for power reactors -- and is testing an additional 300, with another 300 centrifuges still under installation. Iran’s goal is to begin operating 3,000 centrifuges by June, an objective that appears within reach according to officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency which monitors Iran’s efforts. (At left, centrifuges at Natanz.)
Iran’s program is allowed under the NPT, which permits access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, but is currently in direct violation of three UN Security Council resolutions that have highlighted Iran’s violations of its safeguards obligations and demanded that Iran suspend especially the enrichment component of its nuclear program.
Two aspects of Iran’s enrichment program are especially troubling to policymakers and experts. One is that if Iran were to operate successfully about 3,000 centrifuges for a year, stockpiling the resulting low-enriched uranium (LEU), it would have a “breakout” capability of several months if it were to withdraw from the NPT, expel IAEA inspectors, and use its stockpiled LEU as feed in its centrifuges (starting enrichment with LEU shortens dramatically -- as much as 75 percent -- the time needed to enrich weapons-grade uranium). That’s a lot of “ifs,” but these are worst case scenarios that most concern diplomats.
The second is that Iran, at least for the moment, appears unshakable in its determination to brush off sanctions, and move doggedly forward with further installation of centrifuges and enrichment. This may force a rethinking of diplomatic strategy, as suggested by the Times, which until now has focused on the requirement that Iran suspend enrichment.
May 15, 2007 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (0)
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