« July 2007 | Main | September 2007 »

Prospects for Iraq’s Stability?

August 23, 2007 2:49 PM

Following the release of the National Intelligence Estimate, Anthony Cordesman, an ABC News consultant and the Arleigh A. Burke chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies blogs about the road ahead:

The NIE misses five critical developments in the fighting which negate many of the gains cited in the NIE. These developments have been almost totally ignored by President Bush and a number of Congressmen returning from Iraq:

1. The focus on defeating Al Qa’ida has created more opportunities for Shi'ite sectarian cleansing in virtually every part of the sectarian fault line, including Baghdad and the Ring. This is not measured in a surge of violent attacks or killings. It is measured in a steady growth of Shi'ite controlled territory, displacement of Sunnis, and Sadr Militia control and sale/rental of properties and housing. In some ways, the surge is winning the battle for sectarian cleansing.

2. Significant elements of the Iraqi Army, National Police, and regular police have taken the Shi'ite side and backed Sadrist, with the support of important elements in the Prime Minister's office, Ministry of Defense, and Ministry of the Interior. The sectarian problems in virtually every aspect of the Iraqi security effort have been notably worse than was previously estimated.

3. The Iraqi government has lost control over much of the south to feuding Shi'ite factions, and the US and Iraqi security forces cannot play a role to replace departing British forces. The British are now down to three token enclaves in the Basra area. The four Southeastern provinces -- where oil exports account for 80% of Iraq's oil exports and most of its total exports and government income -- are the scene of feuding between the Sadrists, SIIC, Faddilla, and al Dawa. These religious movements are struggling for money and power in a form closer to criminal gangs than religious or political groups and even their leaders in Baghdad have limited control over them. The provinces of Najaf and Karbala are more secure but scarcely supporters of the US. Even US aid efforts like the PRTs are largely excluded from operating in them.

4. Kurdish-Arab Sectarian tension remains a major problem. Overt violence is limited but efforts at ethnic cleansing continue and Shi'ite militias are building up their presence in the North.

5. The Sunni tribal alignment is uncertain and volatile. Being anti-Al Qa’ida is not being pro-government. If political progress does not take place, central government money does not go to the tribes and Sunnis, and local security forces are not officially recognized and tied into the police, all of the progress to date could reverse or make the US act as the sponsor of the tribes and a buffer between it and the government.

6. The Shi'ite militia are growing in power, strength, wealth, and Iranian support. The US and ISF are attacking some of the worst and most violent elements of the Sadr militia, but in broad terms, the Shi'ite militias continue to expand; infiltrate into Iraqi force (especially the police); and raise money through extortion, theft, expropriation of property, and gang action. Iran continues to build them up with weapons and training.

August 23, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Shuttle Landing: Lucky or Smart?

August 21, 2007 4:31 PM

Science correspondent Ned Potter blogs:

NASA, given heavily to acronyms, even has one for death: LOCV. It actually stands for Loss Of Crew/Vehicle, and there were passing references to it as mission managers debated what to do about that now-famed gouge mark beneath Endeavour's tail.

Early on, John Shannon, the deputy shuttle program manager, made it clear he'd be more concerned "if we were in a Loss Of Crew/Vehicle situation." They decided shuttles had survived worse tile damage -- they had "a rich history" of it, he said--but they worked the problem for nearly a week. Inch-deep holes rarely receive as much attention.

Now Endeavour is safely on the ground in Florida, and we've had our first look at the spot after the heat of re-entry. I'll leave it to others to decide if NASA was more lucky than smart. Your thoughts on that--or other matters technological or scientific -- are, as always, welcome.

With STS-118 over, I'm going to take some vacation. I hope you're getting some time for rest too. See you after Labor Day.

Check out Ned's Science and Society blog here.

August 21, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Running in Crawford

August 15, 2007 7:06 PM

White House producer Jon Garcia blogs:

President Bush likes nothing more than to be out on his land in Crawford, Texas -- in triple digit temperatures -- chopping and clearing brush, fishing and, yes, even exercising.

To that end, the President hosted his annual "100 Degree Heat Run" this afternoon for only the heartiest -- or craziest -- of his staff. The 3-mile pavement/trail run has only two requirements: the thermometer must be over 100 degrees and the participants must not stop moving. (In years past, you couldn't stop running either, but this year the rule was relaxed to allow walking.)

"It was really, really fun. The air temp was up to 104 but with the humidity it felt like 109!" said Deputy Press Secretary Dana Perino, with a bit of a laugh in her voice. It should be noted that Ms. Perino did NOT run in this race but played a supporting role by handing out water to runners at the halfway point.

The President, she told us after the race, was also at the midpoint offering his encouragement to the 40 runners who participated this year, including Secret Service agents and military staffers. (Some journalists have been invited to run in the past, but none were worthy this year.)

Bush himself doesn't run anymore. He used to but he repeatedly injured his knees. So he ditched the running track and decided to play cheerleader-in-chief to the fastest -- and slowest -- of his staff.

Perino recounted some of what Bush said:

"It's hot out here!" he said, pointing out the obvious. "Looking good!" and "Get yourself some water!" he told the runners, adding that Press Office staffer Carlton Carroll, a favorite of press corps members, was "looking a little pink!" as he ran by.

Some members of the staff follow behind the runners to make sure on one drops from the heat and that everyone is ok, Perino said.

This year, a member of the Marine One helicopter team broke the tape with a time of 18 minutes, 50 seconds. The best non-military/secret service time was turned in by long-time staffer David Sherzer. And Sherzer wasn't just the fastest runner, he was also the most officious, running the whole time with his BlackBerry "just in case the boss needed something," Perino said.

What do all these runners get for their trouble? An iPod? New running shoes? Nope. Those who finish get a certificate, a photo with Bush and a tee shirt with the 100 Degree Club logo on it. And bragging rights.

August 15, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Reaction to Rove's Resignation

August 13, 2007 6:15 PM

Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper blogs about that quiet sound you hear:

That quiet sound you hear from Republicans says all you need to know about party officials' current feelings about Karl Rove. (At left, Rove with President Bush in July 2005.)

Not one GOP presidential campaign has proactively put out a statement paying homage to Rove or thanking him for his service. Certainly former Governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee can't be delighted with Rove stealing attention from their Iowa Straw Poll victories this weekend with the timed announcement of his departure.

Asked on CNN's "American Morning" if he would welcome Rove to his campaign, Huckabee's first response was, "I would welcome anybody to my campaign at this point."

There's also reluctance by these GOP pols to have their names appear in news stories that mention the Valerie Plame leak, the firing of the US Attorneys, congressional subpoenas, and the general tenor of Rove-style politics.

Continue reading on Jake's Political Punch blog.

August 13, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Virtually There

August 10, 2007 8:16 PM

Associate Producer Catherine Cole blogs about how technology enabled a Marine in Iraq to be present for the birth of his daughter:

On Thursday night’s broadcast, we brought you the story of the Greene family. Melissa Greene had her first child Tuesday morning in Brockton, Massachusetts. Her husband, U.S. Marine Corps Lance Corporal Tyrelle Greene, was in the delivery room -– despite being 7,000 miles away on the Al Asad airbase in Iraq. (At left, Tyrelle talks with wife Melissa as she holds their newborn daughter Janelle via video teleconference.)

Although he was there virtually, Tyrelle was able to do more than just watch. He comforted and coached his wife through the delivery while witnessing his newborn daughter’s arrival into the world.

“He was trying to coach me, trying to count with me. It all worked out,” Melissa said.

Having her husband there made all the difference to the new mother: “To be able to see my husband last night while going through the birth was the best thing in the whole world.”

The two were able to share the birth through the Freedom Calls Foundation. Through donations, this organization connects troops in Iraq and Afghanistan with their families back home.

Janelle Margaret Greene was born at 12:01 a.m. on August 7, weighing in at 7 lbs., 12 ozs. She is the foundation’s tenth birth.

August 10, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Chicken Busters

August 09, 2007 4:38 PM

Correspondent Jeffrey Kofman blogs from the streets of Miami:

It’s not often that I get to laugh openly on assignment. But it was impossible not to laugh at times as we ventured into the boulevards and backyards of Miami with the city’s team of Chicken Busters. Sure every city has squads of dog catchers, but Miami claims to be the only city in the country with a team that proudly wears the words “Chicken Busters” on the back of its shirts. (At left, Jeffrey holds a chicken.)

You know, like Ghost Busters. It’s a not so subtle joke that Miami’s three Chicken Busters are happy to share in.

We chased Bill, Ozzie and Lester with our camera as they chased chickens. A scene worthy of the best Keystone Cops films.

VIDEO: Watch the webcast version of Jeffrey's piece here.

With so many immigrants from the Caribbean and Latin America here, wild chickens are just part of the landscape in Miami. Some people love to feed them but to many they are unwelcome neighbors, especially when the roosters crow at 5 a.m. City zoning prohibits poultry in residential areas.

I’ve certainly seen a fair number of chickens over the years, but until I joined the Chicken Busters for a day I had no idea how wily they can be. Or how high they can fly.

“You’ve got to think like a chicken,” Ozzie counseled me. He had a smile on his face when he said that, but he was being serious.

We watched as the hens and roosters flapped into the trees or darted through a hole in the fence. It began to feel like the chickens had rehearsed their own version of a fire drill. I began to think of the cartoons we all watched as kids as the wily mouse dashed into his hole leaving the pursuing pussycat trying to claw for its quarry in a place it really couldn’t reach. (At right, a chicken buster prepares to pounce.)

Or maybe I’m thinking of that famous cartoon rabbit who excelled at escapes.

I have to tip my sunhat to our spry camera crews. For some strange reason we’ve done a lot of outdoor shooting here in Florida in recent weeks. It’s not an easy task when you’re lugging a 32 pound camera on your shoulders in the 95 degree heat and thick humidity. Cameraman Dale West and sound engineer Chris Nickless sure got their aerobic workout on this shoot.

It was tiring, but we were all smiling when it was finished. Well, I’m not sure the captive chickens were smiling.

VIDEO: Watch the webcast version of Jeffrey's piece here.

August 9, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Booing Barry Bonds: Fans Rooting Against Him

August 08, 2007 4:39 PM

ABC’s Patrick Moynihan on the roles race and steroid use played in their views:

Even though Barry Bonds has broken one of baseball's most hallowed records, more than half the sport's fans hoped he would whiff -- a dramatic difference from Hank Aaron's broad support as he approached the same milestone 33 years ago.

Our May ABC News/ESPN poll found that 52 percent of fans were rooting against Bonds as he approached Aaron's record of 755 career home runs; many fewer, 37 percent, were cheering Bonds on. And while allegations of steroid use play a heavy role in these views, so does race, with black fans far more supportive of Bonds and his quest.

Continue reading Patrick’s analysis here.

August 8, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Beijing Olympics: One Year and Counting

August 07, 2007 4:43 PM

Beijing-based producer Beth Loyd on how Chinese authorities are struggling to meet 'green' targets amid the country’s economic boom:

This week China starts the official countdown to the opening of the 2008 Olympics, which on Wednesday will be exactly one year away. Beijing is gearing up and getting ready for a big kickoff ceremony in Tienanmen Square. No doubt there will be fireworks and dancing and music and flowery speeches in the square, a far cry from the student protests that were put down with deadly violence in 1989, securing the square's reputation as a flash point.

Certainly, China has changed since then.

It has the fastest growing economy in the world and increasing military might. And in some ways, it is more willing to recognize its problems. But as Beijing prepares itself for the world's eyes, is it ready to put its best foot forward?

Continue reading Beth’s analysis here.

August 7, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Chances for Mideast Peace?

August 01, 2007 10:41 AM

Jerusalem correspondent Wilf Dinnick blogs with his assessment:

On the surface, all the positive signs for Middle East peace have started to spring up -- Tony Blair is the new Middle East Peace envoy, Bush announces major peace conference in the fall, Sec. Rice is now visiting Israeli Palestinian leaders on regular basis.

So why won't this lead to anything substantial?

No one is willing to make any sacrifices to achieve peace.

The Israelis know what they have to do to start the process. Israeli Prime Minister Olmert is in a coalition with political partners unwilling to make any big moves. It would mean lifting many of the close to 500 Israeli army checkpoints through out the West Bank that prevent Palestinians from moving freely around their land. It means starting to pull Israeli settlers out of the West Bank. It means releasing many, many more Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.

Palestinians also have to make serious sacrifices. Release Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier captured by Hamas last year. Stop the rocket attacks from Gaza into Southern Israel and Hamas must renounce violence and sit at the table with Israeli leaders. Palestinian leaders must end their bitter infighting and stand together to represent all Palestinians.

The US is not forcing either side to do any of these things.

More problematic for the US is their man-on-the-ground on the Palestinian side -- Mahmoud Abbas.

Abbas has no power and it is slipping quickly. The rival Hamas party that took over Gaza last month is set to take over Nablus in the West Bank.

There are no creative ideas coming from politicians about ways around the hurdles. There seems to be no real will on anyone’s part.

Many in the ground here in the Middle East say that is because the US is not serious about peace but simply optics -- try and make it look like things are moving forward to create enough stability in order to exit Iraq.

Regardless of the reason, there seems to be almost no real will to create lasting peace.

August 1, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)