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A Dark Cloud Over Kenya

December 31, 2007 9:05 AM

Dana Hughes, part of our recent expansion of reporters stationed around the globe, blogs from Nairobi:

I've really enjoyed the three months I've been reporting from Nairobi, Kenya. I've made good friends, seen incredible stories and have quelled my homesickness for political news in the United States, by getting caught up in Kenya's "election fever."

So it's with great sadness (and a little fear) that I am watching this country I have grown to love descend into chaos. Just four days ago I was in a bar with people of all tribes --including the Kikuyu, the powerful tribe of President Mwai Kibaki, who was sworn in for a second term Sunday, and the Luo, the historically marginalized tribe of challenger Raila Odinga -- watching the national election results come in with great excitement. I felt like I was back in the states at an election party.

But how wrong I was. As the days wore on, it became clear that this presidential election and its aftermath were very different than in the United States. The stakes were high. A defeat for Kibaki would be the first time in the nation's 44-year history since independence that the ballot unseated an incumbent president; that's something virtually unheard of in Africa.

But there was a palpable feeling that Kenyans didn't quite trust the democratic system. As presidential election results slowed to a trickle, questions emerged: Why were parliamentary results coming out at a reasonable pace, but not presidential results?  Why were the vote numbers for Odinga (known as Raila), largely predicted by polls across the country to win the election, stalled? Kenyans became impatient as they waited for answers, believing that the election was being rigged for a Kibaki win. Before I knew it, I was seeing plumes of black smoke from my apartment window coming from Kibera, the largest slum in Kenya and Odinga's constituency. Local media started showing pictures of rioting and looting across the country. Reports of ethnic violence against Kikuyus also surfaced.

As a journalist, my first instinct was to grab my camera and go to Kibera, a place I had reported from on Election Day. But I didn't make it to Kibera -- it just wasn't safe. For one reason, I couldn't find a driver willing to take me! But another, more serious reason is that I am constantly mistaken for being Kikuyu.

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December 31, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

The Security Impact of the Bhutto Assassination

December 27, 2007 2:25 PM

Anthony Cordesman, an ABC News consultant and the Arleigh A. Burke chairman of strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies blogs:

Political stability is only one of the unanswered questions growing out of the Bhutto assassination. The assassination of Bhutto -- or any other leading Pakistani opposition leader -- would push Pakistan to the edge of civil conflict if there was any suspicion that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf had any role in it or that his government had advance knowledge and did not provide the maximum possible security.

Much will depend on whether an Islamist extremist movement announces that it committed the attack. Even then, a substantial number of Pakistanis will still see the Musharraf government as being at least indirectly involved, and there would be a flood of destabilizing conspiracy theories.

The question is, just how bad will this will be?

Much will depend on who, if anyone, takes responsibility for the killings. If the Taliban, al Qaeda or some Islamist extremist group does, it could have a unifying impact and direct anger toward the forces doing most to drive Pakistan apart and threaten Afghanistan. If it is a Pakistani sect or ethnic group, it could be far more divisive. If no one makes a claim -- or the movement is unknown -- it will probably fuel anti-Musharraf conspiracy theories -- particularly if the government cracks down and does not provide convincing transparency as to its actions.

The unfortunate reality is that the combined history of a de facto Musharraf coup and months of rising tensions in Pakistan make any major assassination potentially far more destabilizing than in the past, could bring down the government over time, and create probably months of instability and tension even if the government survived.

There are also a number of wild cards that are still to be played:

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December 27, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

The Meaning of Gift Card Giving

December 26, 2007 7:35 PM

By CHARLES HERMAN 

That great tearing noise yesterday wasn’t just the sound of wrapping paper, but millions of envelopes filled with gift cards being opened.

The National Retail Federation estimated that $26.3 billion would be spent on gift cards this holiday, up 6 percent from last year’s $24.8 billion. The retail trade group said the average consumer would spend $122.59 on gift cards.

Another group, Archstone Consulting, expected gift card sales to equal $35 billion.

And still another group, the International Council of Shopping Centers, forecast shoppers would spend around $47 billion on gift cards, about 18 percent to 20 percent of total holiday expenditures.

Dan Horne, a professor at Providence College, R.I., has studied gift cards extensively. He estimated that $35 billion would be spent on gift cards this holiday, and $90 billion for the entire year. On average, there has been a 20 percent yearly increase in the total amount spent on the plastic equivalent of gift certificates during the holidays.

Horne said that the lower estimate from the retail trade group was a result of it considering cards purchased at retailers, and not taking into account increasingly common ways for people to receive or purchase the cards, such as redeemed airline miles, or corporate incentive programs.

The increasing popularity of gift cards, however, can be a mixed bag for retailers.

Retailers like them because they bring shoppers especially kids with money to spend back to the stores.

And shoppers usually spend more then the value of the card. Horne said that, on average, shoppers spend 140 percent of the actual gift card value. For example, if a card has $100 on it, a consumer will spend $140. The amount, however, depends on the store and the shopper. A Wal-Mart shopper, he said, probably spends about $110 on a $100 card, while a Saks shopper could spend over $200.

So, gift cards keep consumers in a shopping mood, which pushes the spending weeks past Dec. 25.

According to the ICSC, 29 percent of mall-based gift cards are redeemed the week after Christmas, and nearly 65 percent are redeemed in January.

Horne agreed that nearly two-thirds of all gift cards are redeemed by the first month of the year, and that younger shoppers redeem almost all their cards by the middle of January.

But this late redemption poses a dilemma for retailers that can hurt their bottom line.

Accounting rules do not allow businesses to claim gift card sales until the card is redeemed. Normally, when a sale is completed, a store has no more obligation with a consumer. With gift cards, however, the store still “owes” something to the holder of the card.

If a store sold a significant number of gift cards in December, and those cards are used in late January, December sales could look weak. Dismal sales figures, in turn, could cause a drop in a company’s stock price, if it’s publicly traded.

In 2006, the TowerGroup reported that nearly 10 percent of $8 billion in gift cards were "lost," due to expiring cards, lost cards, or cards that were never redeemed.

Horne disputes those figures, and said it depends on the retailer, and on the amount of the gift card. At stores like Home Depot, Wal-Mart and Target, where it is easy to find a store and use the card, he calculates that around 5 percent of cards go unredeemed.

For smaller, independent businesses that now offer cards, such as a local restaurant, he said non-redemption rates are higher.

And what happens to those unused cards?

"It’s definitely a gray area," said Horne.

It depends on the card, as expiration dates and monthly fees common to bank gift cards can slowly zap the value of the card. It also depends on the state where the card was issued, and even where the retailer is incorporated as a business.

In many cases, escheatment laws apply.

Come again?

Escheatment, the procedure where unclaimed or abandoned property is turned over to the state, such as someone dying without a will.

In certain states, the value of a gift card, or a portion of it, will go to its coffers.

December 26, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Castro’s Announcement

December 18, 2007 12:03 AM

ABC News Correspondent for Florida and Latin America Jeffrey Kofman blogs from Miami on the latest word from Fidel Castro:

The announcement is not surprising.

It comes in advance of Cuba's January 20th elections for the 630 seats of the National Assembly. (Note that there are no real opposition candidates in a Cuban election.) Fidel would have to run again for the National Assembly in order to be nominated as President of the Council of Ministers (Prime Minister) and then as Head of State (President). He currently holds both titles. His brother is interim leader.

What Fidel appears to be saying in the letter read on the Cuban political TV show Mesa Redonda (Round Table) Monday night is that he's not running and he's going to let others take on both positions.

Jorge Dominguez at Harvard sees this as an indication that Fidel is taking the "elegant route out" which is being driven more by the Cuban electoral calendar than any specific developments in his health.

The significant part of his letter is this sentence:
“My basic duty is not to cling to office, nor to obstruct the rise of much younger people.”

Note the reference to allowing "younger people" to take over. Does this mean the older Castro, 81, is going to let his brother Raul, 76, stay as Head of the Armed Forces and officially become President and let someone much younger jump over him into the Prime Minister's position?  Not clear, but possible.

Dominguez thinks that Raul Castro will keep both titles, but he hedges his bet and says he wouldn't be surprised to see a younger person given the Council of Ministers (Prime Minister's) job.

If Fidel does jump over Raul, a likely candidate for the PM spot is the man who is currently seen as number three: Dr. Carlos Lage, 56, VP of the Council of Ministers (and a pediatrician) and the man said to be running things with Raul.

Surveys of Cubans newly arrived in the U.S. conducted by the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) show that Lage has widespread popular support that crosses generations. Of course, these migrants are a self-selecting group who opted to leave the island and who would identify with Lage's image as a reformer.

Another candidate, is Felipe Perez Roque, 42, who is currently Foreign Minister and seen as more of a doctrinaire Fidelista.

Andy Gomez at ICCAS says the key for Cuba's leaders is to maintain social and political stability on the island. To do that the government has to work to improve living conditions. There have been recent indications that the government is trying, including the announcement that millions will be spent on transport infrastructure improvements. (Ever seen a picture of the so-called "camel" trucks with a hump that are used as makeshift buses in Havana?) There has also been talk of major agricultural reforms and of improving the efficiency of the bureaucracy.

Gomez says handing over even partial power to a younger generation would help maintain stability.

He notes this would be good for the US Presidential election because it would avoid making Cuba a major issue, but he adds it would be a 'worst nightmare' for Cubans who call themselves 'Exiles' in Miami as they watch a new generation of Fidel loyalists consolidate its hold on power.

December 18, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

For the "New Middle East" See this Floor Model

December 17, 2007 12:03 AM

Lara Setrakian, part of our recent expansion of reporters stationed around the globe, blogs:

With oil making so much money for the countries who pump it, Gulf Arab governments have the cash for ambitious building projects that pump up their skylines and add substance to their cities. The neat thing about a construction boom is that the blueprints provide a peek into the future, or at least one hopeful vision of the city to come.

Zoom in on Abu Dhabi. In what might be the most culturally enlightened use of oil money the city is constructing a series of iconic new buildings including the Louvre Abu Dhabi, a spin-off of the Paris institution. At the Emirates Palace, a 7-star hotel in the capital city, I got a look at eye-popping scale models of what's being built: centrally, a Frank Gehry-designed Guggenheim that evokes beautifully stylized children's building blocks, the Louvre by Jean Nouvel whose interior looks like heaven on earth, and Zaha Hadid's futuristic concert hall that's an ultra-modern take on local plant life. (At right, the Guggenheim.)

The groundbreaking takes place on Saadiyat Island, just off the coast of Abu Dhabi and the first buildings open as soon as four years from now. In a global integrated effort the featured "starchitects" involved include an Iraqi (Hadid), a Frenchman (Nouvel), and a Jewish American (Gehry). (At left, the Zaha Hadid Concert Hall.)

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December 17, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Growing Tensions in Bolivia

December 13, 2007 9:32 AM

Correspondent for Latin America Jeffrey Kofman is on assignment in Bolivia this week. He blogs from the city of Sucre on the growing tensions between President Evo Morales and the opposition.

It is quiet on the white-washed streets of Sucre today. Walk through the magnificent Spanish-colonial streets and it is easy to see why Bolivia's first capital was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

But walk over to the town square, the elegant palm-shaded Plaza 25 de Mayo, and you'll see something else. The elaborate etched windows of the stately provincial congress building are shattered. We are told they are remnants of the November 23rd demonstration against the leftist government of President Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president. Demonstrations that left three dead and left this country bitterly divided over Morales's constitutional reforms.

Now the country faces the possibility of yet more violence. If it happens it will likely occur this weekend when Morales's opponents in four provinces are threatening to declare autonomy. They are courting a confrontation with the army if they go through with this.

That said, three of the provinces are sparsely populated (two are in the Amazon) and have little political significance. The big player is Santa Cruz, the large, largely white, oil/gas city in the east. That's where the trouble is most likely to occur. If it occurs. Morales is sending in additional troops just in case. Publicly he is calling for a dialogue and asking everyone to step back till after the New Year. But if pushed he is likely to push back. The one thing that may discourage the Governors from pushing is that they do not have the military on their side and they'd have real trouble standing up to the military.

The confrontation that is so commonly characterized from afar as left versus right is more complex than that. It is important to understand a few things about Morales's opposition in Santa Cruz. There are a few very wealthy families with huge self-interest in fighting any land reform or redistribution: A study by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) found that in the region, 100 families own 25 million hectares, while two million subsistence farm families have barely five million hectares. (1 hectare = 2.47 acres)

That’s really the story of Bolivia: it has the worst income inequality of any country outside of a handful of African states. In this country of 9.2 million, 63 percent live in poverty (in rural areas it is 80%) and 650,000 families are living on incomes of less than 600 dollars a year. The white minority has monopolized political leadership/land/resources/wealth here for centuries. That's why Morales has so much support amongst the indigenous majority.

Last weekend while shooting a story in the fertile Yungas region around Coroico, we visited a desperately poor coca farmer and his family. The farmer, whose family lives on less than $3 a day, told us that Morales is the first Bolivian President to care about people like him.

December 13, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

White House Christmas: Gone to the Dogs

December 12, 2007 11:14 AM

White House Correspondent Ann Compton blogs with a review:

White House pet-in-chief Barney has not committed to staying in his current post til the end of the Bush administration, and the stocky Scottish terrier may be thinking of a future career in films.

Barney's annual video tour of the White House Christmas decor features his weightiest acting role yet. His doggy-dialogue is done convincingly in balloon photos above his head. Barney also reprises his soccer skills from past holidays, dribbling not one but multiple red glass ornaments down the parquet floor past the Marine Band, bending it like Beckham.

Co-stars are no match. Cameos by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, country star Alan Jackson, and POTUS himself are a bit forced. The reclusive family cat Kitty shines in her fleeting scenes.

Movie goers may be left pondering some awkward directorial touches.... why are Barney and his longtime companion Miss Beazley allowed to get their paws on the antique sofa in the Lincoln Bedroom when Laura Bush reads to them?

Why does the director of the US Park Service speak with British accent?

Best punch line Oscar, however, goes to the ubiquitous Jenna Bush, who coos to Barney about this year's holiday theme celebrating 100 years of National Parks. "We love the national parks. Remember, I got engaged in one."

WATCH Barney’s annual video tour here.
READ a transcript here.

December 12, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Coping with Caracas

December 03, 2007 10:57 AM

ABC’s Jeffrey Kofman discovered that when you face some of the world’s worst gridlock you’ve got to be resourceful if you want to get the story and meet your deadlines.

Move over Baghdad, Caracas takes the cake. This sprawling city of wide avenues, freeways and narrow streets just might win an award for the worst traffic in the world. The equation is simple:

CHEAP GAS + TOO MANY CARS + NO RULES = ANARCHY + GRIDLOCK

Faced with covering massive protest marches and trying to navigate this huge city, we quickly realized that sitting in an idling vehicle for hours wasn’t going to get us our story.

And so we sought out the motociclistas – the motorcycle guys. Four of them. One for me, one for our producer, one for cameraman and one for our sound engineer. It was hard not to crack a wry small as we donned our helmets and set out to our first interview across town.

With all due respect the Walt Disney Companies, owners of ABC, after weaving and dodging through the traffic of Caracas I do not need to go Disney World ever again for a thrill or a scare. I carefully counseled our drivers to take their time and resist the temptation to outrun other motorcycles. They did, but it was still a harrowing journey through parked traffic, squeezing between car and truck doors while navigating the painted line between lanes. When it wasn’t terrifying it was kind of fun. Although I was constantly aware that I was just one protruding mirror or weaving bumper away from serious injury or worse.

We found our four drivers through Fernando, ABC’s part-time local producer in Caracas. They are all in their late 20’s or 30’s, from one of the poor barrio’s or neighborhoods that is the foundation of leftist President Hugo Chavez’s support. But all four scoffed at the idea of supporting him in Sunday’s constitutional referendum, a vote that would have given him enormous new powers. All four noted that since Chavez took office investment has fled the country and jobs have become scarce. They are all unemployed. They don’t want handouts, they want work. They were thrilled to get a couple of days work from us.

We had declined an offer to be escorted to a barrio by Chavez’s press office. We fared much better escorted by our motorcycle guys, who took us to where they lived. We zipped through the wealthy Caracas Country Club neighborhood, past embassies and mansions and across a small bridge. Than we hooked left into narrow line I hadn’t even notice. It opened onto a very poor collection of cinderblock homes stacked in a valley. They were clean, but far less than basic. The guys pointed out two groups of government healthcare workers who were offering free yellow fever vaccine. Conveniently it was two days before the vote and the workers used the opportunity to remind people to vote SI or YES so that the government’s good works could continue.

We hopped on the back of the bikes and back to the hotel to pick up our gas masks before we headed to the big final NO rally, bumping through the streets and making impossible 90 degrees to navigate around the sea of standing cars. The opposition rallies have encountered aggressive police tactics before and experience has taught us to be prepared (thankfully the masks weren’t necessary.)

There was something thrilling about getting out our destinations hassle free. There was also a sense of relief getting off the motorbike without injury.

Caracas really shouldn’t have such terrible traffic. The city boasts one of the most extensive and efficient subway systems in the world. But go to a local gas station and you can see the problem. This oil-rich country that boasts the second-largest oil deposits on the planet sells gas for about 15 cents a gallon. Far less than water or milk or coke. Gas is so cheap that you can’t afford NOT to drive. So everyone who has a car does. All the time.

With so many cars, the young and resilient have taken to motorbikes to make better time. With so few police enforcing traffic laws, it means anything goes in any direction.

It was a thrill. But I’m not sure that I want to push my luck any further.

December 3, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Will “pulling a JFK” be enough for Romney?

December 03, 2007 10:15 AM

ABC's Senior Political Correspondent Jake Tapper provides analysis:

History shows Kennedy’s address about his faith was just one of many attempts to quell the issue.

He was an attractive candidate, with money, intelligence, and institutional support. But no candidate of his faith had ever been elected president and wherever he went this issue confronted him.

It got to the point that just under two months before the election, then-Sen. John F. Kennedy, D-Mass., had to go before a room of 300 or so Protestant ministers and declare, “I am not the Catholic candidate for President. I am the Democratic Party's candidate for President who happens also to be a Catholic.”

Kennedy, the first Catholic president, went through a similar experience that his fellow Bay Stater, former Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican and a Mormon, is experiencing today.

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December 3, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)