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Battling Data: What Gives?

May 05, 2008 12:37 PM

Polling Director Gary Langer blogs:

There were at least a few crossed eyes today over conflicting data and analysis in the latest New York Times/CBS and USA Today/Gallup polls. We share your pain.

Briefly: Times/CBS has Barack Obama +12 vs. Hillary Clinton, with a headline saying Obama “survives furor” over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. USAT/Gallup has Clinton +7, saying the flap over Wright “pulls Obama down.” Adding to the mix is Gallup’s daily poll, which has Obama +4.

These polls also differ in their general election match-ups: Times/CBS has Obama +11 and Clinton +12 vs. John McCain, while USAT/Gallup has them basically tied. Gallup daily has Clinton-McCain tied, McCain +5 vs. Obama.

Before we get into what gives, we’ll use this as an opportunity to repeat our long-standing advice to de-emphasize the horse race in pre-election polls. It is lowest-common-denominator reporting. And in poll-to-poll comparisons it’s the single most unstable measure we see. (Just a few weeks ago Newsweek had Obama +19 and Gallup daily had him +3 on the same day. Aagh.)

Continue reading on Gary's The Numbers blog.

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