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Politics of Timing

May 15, 2008 9:26 AM

The Note's Rick Klein blogs:

As that remarkable Edwards-Obama endorsement event was going on on live television last night, I got the following e-mail from an Obama person: "You have to admit, no one loses a primary like our campaign."

Indeed. Today's Note focuses on the masterstroke of political timing with which the Obama campaign rolled out the Edwards endorsement. With one teensy endorsement from a guy who isn't even a superdelegate, we're suddenly not talking about that 41-point drubbing Barack Obama suffered in a swing state on Tuesday. If John Edwards doesn't win Obama a single vote in Kentucky or anywhere else, he's probably done his job for Obama.

In the media weeds a bit, it was even a savvier move than one might realize. Sen. Hillary Clinton had cleared her schedule on Wednesday to do a rare full round of TV interviews for the evening network and cable news -- virtually ensuring full-bore coverage, her face and her argument on television screens nation-wide.

That event in Grand Rapids, Mich., was originally supposed to start at 7 pm ET. The campaign let reporters know that it would instead start at 6:20 pm ET -- conveniently, just in time for the 6:30 pm start of the network news programs. At ABC, "World News" made the rare move of going live to an Obama campaign event for a precious couple of minutes, to capture the shot we'd all been waiting to see since Edwards dropped from the race.

One of the great untold stories of this campaign has been the extent to which the Obama campaign (an experienced bunch, but not as experienced as the Clinton campaign) has mastered the round-the-clock news cycle, often outflanking the Clinton folks.

Continue reading here.

May 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Polar Bear Ruling: Nobody's Happy

May 14, 2008 4:38 PM

Science Correspondent Ned Potter blogs:

Interior Secretary Kempthorne has now ruled to give polar bears "threatened" status. But it's clear that nobody -- not he, not environmentalists, not conservative groups that oppose the environmentalists -- is pleased with the decision.

If you haven't seen our piece, it's HERE. A few extra quotes:

Secretary Kempthorne: "While the legal standards under the ESA compel me to list the polar bear as threatened, I want to make clear that this listing will not stop global climate change or prevent any sea ice from melting. Any real solution requires action by all major economies for it to be effective. That is why I am taking administrative and regulatory action to make certain the ESA isn’t abused to make global warming policies."

John Kostyack of the National Wildlife Federation: "They said that they can't say any single coal plant or any other polluter is responsible for the decline of sea ice. And that's simply incorrect.

Continue reading on Ned's Science and Society blog.

May 14, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Inside Lebanon

May 13, 2008 4:11 PM

Lara Setrakian, part of our recent expansion of reporters stationed around the globe, blogs:

Getting into Lebanon wasn’t easy. Hezbollah forces effectively shut down the Beirut airport, so I flew to Damascus, drove to the Syrian border, walked my suitcases across a barricade, and then got a driver from the Lebanese border to Beirut. (At left, dirt and rocks were used to block Lebanon's streets as a form of protest, shutting down certain routes and the Beirut airport.) When I got to Beirut there were still clashes in the western part of town, where my colleagues and I were staying. Some of the worst clashes were in Hamra, a neighborhood I know well. My mother grew up in Hamra as part of a small Armenian Christian community in this mostly Muslim area. She married my dad at the start of the Lebanese Civil War, when they moved to the U.S. to start a family. One uncle stayed behind in Beirut to cover the war. He worked at UPI with a then little-known Thomas Friedman and occasionally with ABC’s Peter Jennings.

After studying and subsequently reporting on Middle East, it was my turn. I was dispatched to cover this conflict, knowing something about the politics at the center. It all started last week when the Lebanese government challenged Hezbollah, a Shiite political and military wing considered a terrorist group in the United States. The government sees the well-armed Hezbollah as a state-within a state, and called for Hezbollah to dismantle a private telecom network that was used for military communications during Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel.

Hezbollah refused, clashing with government forces and overpowering them in less than 48 hours. It was urban warfare that tore at the peaceful, diverse society the Lebanese were trying to build after the Civil War.

In the end the government backpedaled -- withdrawing its challenge to Hezbollah in order to keep the peace. Government leader Walid Jumblatt, usually a firebrand critic of Hezbollah, sounded defeated in his speeches and comments that followed the fighting. (At left, young Lebanese watch a concession speech by Jumblatt.) Now Beirut is calm, but tense. Many are returning to work and some are going out to socialize -- Beirut some of the best bars, cafes, and restaurant in the Middle East. As a coping device, Lebanese people are famous for finding a way to party in the midst of crisis.

Some are calling for the government to resign, which would shift the balance of power toward Hezbollah’s coalition. While the Lebanese wait they worry, afraid of more fighting before any lasting peace.

May 13, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

No Rush for Clinton to Go, but it's Still Advantage Obama

May 12, 2008 6:30 PM

Polling Director Gary Langer blogs about the latest ABC News poll:

Pushing back against political punditry, more than six in 10 Democrats say there's no rush for Hillary Clinton to leave the presidential race  even as Barack Obama consolidates his support for the nomination and scores solidly in general-election tests.

Despite Obama's advantage in delegates and popular vote, 64 percent of Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say Clinton should remain in the race. Even among Obama's supporters, 42 percent say so.

Click here for a PDF with charts and full questionnaire.

That's not a majority endorsement of Clinton's candidacy; Democrats by a 12-point margin would rather see Obama as the nominee, a lead that's held steadily in ABC News/Washington Post polls since early March. Instead it reflects a rejection of the notion that the drawn-out contest will hurt the party's prospects. Seventy-one percent think it'll either make no difference in November (56 percent) or actually help the party (15 percent).

Those views correspond with opinions on Clinton continuing her candidacy. And in a related result, 85 percent of Democrats (including Democratic-leaning independents) are confident the party would come together behind Obama as the nominee  though fewer, 45 percent, are "very" confident of it. That underscores the importance of the endgame for the party's prospects.

The second slot is one possibility: Clinton continues as the preferred choice as Obama's running mate, with 39 percent of Democrats saying they'd like him to pick her if he's the nominee. That peaks at 59 percent of African-Americans, 47 percent of Clinton supporters and 42 percent of women (vs. 34 percent of men).

There's also an indication that Clinton on the ticket would be a slight net plus in the general election: Among all Americans, more say having her run with Obama would make them more likely to vote Democratic (25 percent) than to vote Republican (18 percent). The rest (54 percent) say it wouldn't make a difference in their choice.

OBAMA and NOVEMBER  For his part, Obama, who surpassed Clinton on electability last month, now has knocked down another of her campaign's tent posts, for the first time slipping ahead of her as the "stronger leader." Her sole remaining advantage is on experience  a challenge in a contest in which Obama's theme of "change" has far outstripped experience as the attribute of top concern for Democrats.

Continue reading here.

May 12, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

'Fight Is Over': Clinton Needed Big Victory, Obama Emerged on Top

May 07, 2008 8:02 AM

ABC's Rick Klein, with Mike Elmore, blog in today's Note:

The question that is now astoundingly close to being the most urgent one in the presidential race: Does Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton see a distinction between the good of the Clintons, the good of the Democratic Party, and the good of the country?

On the night that Clinton needed a resounding victory, it was Sen. Barack Obama who emerged on top -- and, by bouncing back from the biggest challenge to his candidacy, went a long way toward answering the questions that had left him battered and bruised (not even counting what happened on the basketball court.

Clinton, D-N.Y., lost precious ground in delegates, votes, and momentum -- with margins that all-but wiped out her pick-ups from Pennsylvania two weeks ago. They both won a state, but Obama's was bigger, and was called far earlier; under the Wright-infused circumstances (and given the Clinton Campaign's intense late efforts) his margin in North Carolina was jaw-dropping, while hers in Indiana was jaw-clenching.

Continue reading the Note here.

May 7, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Battling Data: What Gives?

May 05, 2008 12:37 PM

Polling Director Gary Langer blogs:

There were at least a few crossed eyes today over conflicting data and analysis in the latest New York Times/CBS and USA Today/Gallup polls. We share your pain.

Briefly: Times/CBS has Barack Obama +12 vs. Hillary Clinton, with a headline saying Obama “survives furor” over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. USAT/Gallup has Clinton +7, saying the flap over Wright “pulls Obama down.” Adding to the mix is Gallup’s daily poll, which has Obama +4.

These polls also differ in their general election match-ups: Times/CBS has Obama +11 and Clinton +12 vs. John McCain, while USAT/Gallup has them basically tied. Gallup daily has Clinton-McCain tied, McCain +5 vs. Obama.

Before we get into what gives, we’ll use this as an opportunity to repeat our long-standing advice to de-emphasize the horse race in pre-election polls. It is lowest-common-denominator reporting. And in poll-to-poll comparisons it’s the single most unstable measure we see. (Just a few weeks ago Newsweek had Obama +19 and Gallup daily had him +3 on the same day. Aagh.)

Continue reading on Gary's The Numbers blog.

May 5, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Hillary's Horse

May 03, 2008 7:05 PM

Senior Political Correspondent and Political Punch author Jake Tapper blogs:

Tragedy struck the first filly in the Kentucky Derby since 1999, as Eight Belles went down on the track after her second-place finish today, broke two ankles, and was euthanized.

Showing a sisterhood with the female horse, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., during a trip to Louisville this week had said she was going to bet on Eight Belles to win, place, and show.

ABC News' Karen Travers reports that Clinton told supporters in Jeffersonville, Ind., earlier this week, "I hope that everybody will go to the derby on Saturday and place just a little money on the filly for me. I won’t be able to be there this year -- my daughter is going to be there and so she has strict instructions to bet on Eight Belles."

Continue reading on Jake's Political Punch blog.

May 3, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)