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The Note: Outside Pressures Leave Clouds Over RNC

August 31, 2008 6:19 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Sunday's Note:

If the drama in Denver was contained squarely inside the Pepsi Center (only to be expelled into the mountain air with the confetti cannons at Invesco Field), the theater in St. Paul is feeling pressure that's building outside.

Between a hurricane problem and a football-schedule problem -- and a Ron Paul problem, an Arnold Schwarzenegger problem, a President Bush problem, not to mention a Dan Quayle problem and a Pat Buchanan problem

-- Sen. John McCain's control over his own convention grows more limited by the hour.

(The funny thing is McCain may not care about that fact. Who better than a maverick to accept his party's nomination in a way that looks less than traditional?)

A senior White House official tells ABC's George Stephanopoulos that President Bush is almost certain to skip St. Paul. (And McCain surely doesn't care about that, either.)

Amid the somber mood and curtailed partying that is Hurricane Gustav's political wake even before the storm hits US soil, McCain's candidacy has more energy, but is also in more need of some redefinition, as he goes for broke with his vice-presidential pick. (Who's "dangerously inexperienced" now, pray tell?)

And here comes a bold start: McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin head to Mississippi on Sunday-- a visit designed more to remind voters of who they aren't than of who they are.

Read the rest of The Note -- and get all the latest on the 2008 election, Congress, the White House and the wide world of politics every day -- from Rick Klein by bookmarking this link.

The storm has the most potential to change the week's tone (and don't think Team McCain doesn't see the good side as well as the bad side of a few less parties and a few more ways to signal McCain's breaks with Bush).

McCain's visit is designed to make him what Bush wasn't -- though at the risk of a few stories tallying the police manpower soaked up by a political visit on the eve of a massive weather disruption.

Speaking of disruptions: "Republicans scrambled Saturday to make contingency plans for changing the tone of their national convention, worried that televised images of a lavish celebration would provide a jarring contrast to scenes of disaster and mass evacuations," Michael Abramowitz and Robert Barnes write in The Washington Post. "McCain advisers also said that the meticulously planned event may have to be radically altered if the storm begins to grow into a calamity like Katrina."

"It wouldn't be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster," McCain tells Fox News' Chris Wallace.

"If it looks like it's going to hit, we will, obviously, drastically change our plans,"Cindy McCain tells ABC's George Stephanopoulosin an interview airing on "This Week" Sunday.

Per ABC News: "There is official business that is required to happen at the convention, like the actual nomination of John McCain and the platform ratification -- but [an official] added contingency plans are being considered regarding delegation travel and the program of speakers. . . . The Republican National Convention has set up a committee in Saint Paul to monitor Hurricane Gustav and evaluate its impact on the convention schedule."

Depending on how bad it is, "Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) may deliver his acceptance speech via satellite because of the historically huge hurricane threatening New Orleans, top officials said," per Politico's Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin.

Weather or not, the list of no-shows grows. It's not just Larry Craig and Chuck Hagel and Gov. Schwarzenegger and Gulf Coasters; for many in tough races, there are better things to do. "At least 10 incumbent senators, plus several Senate candidates, have sent their regrets. Only three incumbents in hotly contested races, including Kentucky's Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, will join the partygoers," Bob Drogin writes in the Los Angeles Times.

The scene would have been grim enough without the clouds: "Republicans assembling in the Twin Cities are faced with a sobering reality check: The GOP has never confronted such steep political odds in modern times," Carla Marinucci writes in the San Francisco Chronicle. "With the popularity of President Bush in the cellar, issues like the war in Iraq and gas prices, and 'change' becoming the watchword of the election season, the GOP is counting on McCain to come through on what many political observers say may be Mission Impossible in 2008 -- keeping control of the White House."

To that end: Palin has the base jazzed -- but has complicated the McCain storyline. (And did she really get the job after a grand total of two meetings? Isn't it harder to become an assistant manager at Target?)

"McCain risks ceding the most effective argument he and fellow Republicans have made against Obama," Dan Balz writes in The Washington Post.

"For months, Republicans have attacked the senator from Illinois as not ready to be president. Now McCain has put someone who Democrats argue has even less experience one election and a heartbeat away from the presidency."

Peter Baker, in The New York Times: "The selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska proved quintessentially McCain -- daring, hazardous and defiantly off-message. He demonstrated that he would not get boxed in by convention as he sought to put a woman next in line to the presidency for the first time. Yet in making such an unabashed bid for supporters of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, he risked undercutting his central case against Senator Barack Obama."

And the battle to define Palin has just begun -- on terms the McCain campaign can't control:Politico's John F. Harris points out that journalists wouldn't be probing the backgrounds of a Mitt Romney or a Tim Pawlenty with equal vigor.

"Over the next 72 hours, whether she becomes a new star of the GOP or an albatross will be determined in large part by a wave of second- and third-day news coverage about McCain's unexpected running mate," Harris writes. "Naturally, there will be the usual articles about her record in passing bills in Alaska and her positions on certain hot-button issues. But the inquiries that have the most potential to explode will delve into more sensitive terrain."

A family feud could be the little story that grows into the big one: "The investigation is focusing on whether she and her aides pressured and ultimately fired the public safety commissioner, Walter Monegan, for not removing Palin's ex-brother-in-law from the state police force,"James V. Grimaldi and Kimberly Kindy write in The Washington Post.  "Interviews with principals involved in the dispute and a review of court documents and police internal affairs reports reveal that Palin has been deeply involved in alerting state officials to her family's personal turmoil."

"Alaska's former commissioner of public safety claims that Gov. Sarah Palin, John McCain's pick to be vice president, personally talked to him on two occasions about a state trooper who was locked in a bitter custody battle with the governor's sister," Lisa Demer writes for The Anchorage Daily News.

"In a phone conversation Friday night, Walt Monegan, who was Alaska's top cop until Palin fired him July 11, told The Anchorage Daily News that the governor also had e-mailed him two or three times about the trooper, Mike Wooten, though the e-mails didn't mention Wooten by name."

"Palin is likely to be deposed soon in the case, according to State Sen. Hollis French, who leads the state Senate's Legislative Counsel Committee," per ABC's Marcus Baram. "French's committee unanimously authorized an investigation into the dismissal of the state's public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan, who claims he balked at pressure to remove Trooper Mike Wooten, who had an acrimonious divorce from Palin's sister."

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

August 31, 2008 in Political Radar | Permalink | Share | User Comments (118)

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