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Rove: Palin Could Be Worth Three Points for McCain

September 04, 2008 4:58 PM

ABC News' Teddy Davis Reports: Former Bush strategist Karl Rove said Thursday that Sarah Palin could boost John McCain against Barack Obama even though academic research shows that vice presidential picks usually don't matter.

"I've touched base with a couple of political science professors, and they say, 'Look, vice presidential running mates typically have a small impact on the outcome.' In fact, one analysis shows less than one percent up or down," said Rove. "Sarah Palin has a chance to take that one percent and take it to a two or three percent impact and in a close election that may make a difference."

Rove thinks Palin could make the difference in a tight contest because of her potential appeal to suburban, independent women and small-town Hillary Clinton voters.

"Taking on Alaska's good-old-boy politics and beating the incumbent Republican governor might be seen as evidence of the political courage and independence voters are looking for this year," Rove wrote in Thursday's Wall Street Journal. "And with women more undecided than men, Mrs. Palin could add more than a point to Mr. McCain's total -- maybe two or three - which could make the difference in a close contest."

The former Bush strategist and Fox News commentator who has offered some advice to McCain's 2008 campaign pointed to Colorado as one state where Palin could make a difference. Rove said that in order for Democrats to flip the state, they have to make inroads among rural voters and do well in suburban counties.

"I suspect that Sarah Palin is going to limit their upward mobility with suburban soft Republicans and independent women," said Rove. "So this may be the one election in which the vice presidential nominee has an important impact."

"But let's not overstate it," he continued. "It's going to be two or three percent and the whole drama is going to depend on the presidential candidates and if they're close then she may help push it across."

Rove ended his comments about Palin at Thursday's Politico-Yahoo "convention conversation" in St. Paul, Minn., by mocking the media for framing its Palin coverage around the question: "Can she do it?"

"Let me say one final thing. She had a test last Friday and she passed it with flying colors," said Rove, referring to last week's V.P. announcement. "She had a test last night. But being the newest player on the stage she will also be the most tested and will be the most judged on the stage."

"Now," said Rove, "we're going to be hearing about: 'When is she going to appear on a Sunday talk program?' And: 'When is she going to do an interview?' And: 'When is she going to give an unscripted speech?' And: 'When is she going to give a town-hall meeting?' And: 'When is she going to answer questions on foreign policy?' And: 'How is she going to perform in the debate?'"

"We're going to hear more of these questions of performance throughout the next several weeks about her than we hear about any of the other three candidates and more than we've heard in recent elections about any candidate," said Rove. "[T]he compressed time frame and [her] freshness and newness on the scene are going to require people . . . in the media [to say]: 'How do we make this as an easy storyline?'

"And the easy storyline is: 'Can she do it?'" said Rove. "Like they did last night. The breathless: 'Can she walk out there, in those high-heels, and deliver a speech. Well, fine."

David Wade, the former spokesman to John Kerry who is now press secretary to Obama running mate Joe Biden, dismissed Rove's comments about the effect that Palin could have on the race.

"Good to see the stress of potential jail time hasn't cost Karl his sense of humor," said Wade. "Oh, Karl. He's a stitch of yesterday. I think of an old calendar and I think of Karl's face on it."

September 4, 2008 in Political Radar | Permalink | Share | User Comments (64)

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Well if she gains him 3 it means McWar will only lose by 4.

Posted by: jen | Sep 4, 2008 5:03:04 PM

Fat Karl Rove farts again.

Posted by: DownSouth | Sep 4, 2008 5:03:21 PM

lindsey graham

what a stiff

boooring

Posted by: Omentum | Sep 4, 2008 5:04:27 PM

palin will be OLD news by the end of the month because of her legal troubles.

Posted by: pt | Sep 4, 2008 5:05:50 PM

As a suburban, white woman, I can honestly say there was a day I would have voted for McCain, but I will never, never, never vote for him and his snarky friends. (Since I am not a POW and I don't live in fear of a terrorist attack every day, the Republicans wouldn't want my vote anyway...)

Posted by: Jenni | Sep 4, 2008 5:11:04 PM

ridge booooring

Posted by: Omentum | Sep 4, 2008 5:22:22 PM

what to get silly drunk tonight people

dring a shot every time they say POW

Posted by: Omentum | Sep 4, 2008 5:23:35 PM

A poll driven speech written by Schmidt and Rove delivered by their newest student Gov. Sarah Palin at the Republican convention.

Her attack with a smile means more negative ads.

Schimidt and Rove can't spin a extreme-conservative on the issues into a moderate.

She will attempt to draw the Democrats into the mud and fight.

What is disturbing is the attacks on the media. We count on the media to ask the questions we can't ask
but we want to know about.

The Republican tactics against the media are McCarthyism.

This is a Democracy!

Posted by: Independent Voter | Sep 4, 2008 5:34:25 PM

FOUR MORE MONTHS!!

Posted by: itchy | Sep 4, 2008 5:36:46 PM

I think she is brilliant!

Independent for Palin/McCain

Posted by: alex | Sep 4, 2008 5:39:25 PM

Actually, Sarah Palin is worth a lot more.

The DemocRATS are so afraid after hearing her speak at the convention, they coughed up over $10 million in one day.

The Pied Piper of Chicago played his tune to the DemocRATS, and they followed him all the way to the bank to cough up cash for the great Obama.

And we all thought the Republicans were the party of the rich.

Glad I am an independent and don't dance to the Obama tune.

Anybody But Obama...

Posted by: Jayhawk | Sep 4, 2008 5:44:33 PM

Some maverick she is - just another right wing Republican Rove Puppet

Posted by: das2 | Sep 4, 2008 5:48:11 PM

Whatever she is (according to the Press and the Democrats and some independents) - Sarah Palin is a LEADER!

Don't be jealous - because she's young, capable and successful Just think of the country and you'll be OK. Politicians attack (Barack and Hillary - did you see his nastiness???), so if Palin did - what's so wrong with it?

McCain/Palin, 2008!!!!

Posted by: Jkan | Sep 4, 2008 5:57:52 PM

Palin has invigorated the old men's country club allright. Even O'Reilly has practically turned into a kumbayah-singing feminist. How sweet.

Back here in reality, I am sitting listening to recordings of Palin calling Hillary a whiner and giggling when another female political opponent is called a b--- on air.

Hmmm... Now I know why O'Reilly is smiling.

Posted by: El_Pajaro | Sep 4, 2008 5:59:24 PM

Does all republicans want to continue to live in delusion and ignorance or do they want to got to fact check and see how many lies were spewed last night by rudy huckser and barbie.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/157206

Posted by: Omentum | Sep 4, 2008 5:59:49 PM

I think she gets McCain zip.

Check out the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Posted by: Steve_NJ | Sep 4, 2008 6:02:41 PM

Sarah Palin looks a lot like Monica Lewinsky. I don't think either of them would make a good VP or President.

Posted by: hamishdad | Sep 4, 2008 6:04:24 PM

Rove? What a joke. Just a few weeks ago he said that being Gov of Virginia and mayor of Richmond was hardly enough experience to be a reasonable candidate -- and if obama had picked him as a running mate it would have been purely political and not in the best interest of the country.

Rove is simply a liar -- and pretty much the most evil human being alive too. He engineered the horrid smear of McCain back in 2000. Now he loves McCain because, well, that's politics.

This is just more of the same-old-same-old politics.

In 2000 Bush said that McCain had been in washington too long and was too much of washington as usual. He was right then...

Posted by: jjlin | Sep 4, 2008 6:04:33 PM

im going to throw up.

here we go again

the history channel

Posted by: Omentum | Sep 4, 2008 6:06:04 PM

Jenni,

You can thank George W. Bush for the fact that you don't think of a terrorist attack every day. People in many other countries aren't so fortunate.

How do you account for nearly 11,800 deadly terrorist attacks committed around the world since 9/11 and not a single one here? In the most open society on the planet?

The boldness of Democratic leadership and policies?

Please.

The irrational hate of all things Bush has clouded people's thinking.

For all his faults, Bush has done a remarkable job protecting us from homeland terror. He deserves our thanks for that at least.

I'm confident McCain will instinctively do the right thing to protect the homeland.

With Obama, it's anyone's guess what he'd do under that kind of pressure. Would he lose his head? Would he defer his decisions to his VP due to his inexperience? Would he form a focus group to see what decision polls best? We simply don't know. He's untested.

Confidence that our leaders will make the right decisions in crisis situations MATTERS. Our lives might depend on it.

Posted by: Jim in OH | Sep 4, 2008 6:15:01 PM

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