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Brand New Poll -- Who's Leading in All Important Ohio?
October 06, 2008 7:02 PM
ABC's Tom Nagorski from the World News bus tour in Ohio:
You don't have to spend much time in Ohio to know, a) they are being bombarded with political advertising, b) they are keenly aware of their importance as election "deciders", as one voter told us, and c) they are deeply divided this year. That's the view from the battleground - and it's matched by the results of the ABC News poll just released this afternoon. Take a look -- analysis from our polling unit:
Barack Obama is riding the public's economic discontent to an advantage in Ohio, bolstered by financially stressed voters in the state's hard-hit industrial belt – and following it up with a more extensive ground campaign in this crucial battleground.
In political sentiment the state looks much like the nation; the economy far outstrips other issues and Obama leads in trust to deal with it. That – plus the shadow of George W. Bush over John McCain's campaign – is pushing Obama past lingering concerns about his experience.
An aggressive ground war also helps: Thirty-seven percent of Ohio's registered voters say they've been personally contacted by the Obama campaign. That outstrips the 27 percent who've heard from McCain, and also surpasses contacts by both 2004 campaigns. Obama's ahead as well, a shade more narrowly, in e-mail or text message contacts.
Making and continuing such contacts may matter. Likely voters in this ABC News/Washington Post poll put Obama McCain by 51 to 45 percent if the election were today. But the election is not today, and there's room for change: Eighteen percent say they've not yet made up their minds for sure, again much like the national figure.
Among Obama's advantages, beyond contacts, is sheer energy: Fifty-eight percent of his Ohio supporters are "very enthusiastic" about his candidacy, compared with just 30 percent of McCain’s. And while that’s about the same for Obama as nationally, high-level enthusiasm for McCain’s is 8 points lower in Ohio than in the nation overall.
October 6, 2008 in Vote 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (36)
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Who would vote for anyone who pulled out of the state.....
Posted by: NH voter | Oct 6, 2008 7:11:00 PM
Our long national nightmare is almost over. Let's hope these numbers hold. Republicans, it isn't too late to do the right thing and admit that your philosophy has failed. We are seeing what conservative ideology has wrought. Step into the light. The weight will melt away.
Posted by: Dean | Oct 6, 2008 7:13:11 PM
As a Canadian watching todays political events unfold,I am astounded that the media has not condemned McCain for his antics. Is it not over the line when McCain incites such anger...he stood by quietly as his supporters yelled out 'terrorist' in reference to Obama in the midst of his speech!! Or when Palins introducer invoked Obama's middle name to invoke the same sentiment. There is a time when the media should be condeming an opponents rhetoric and inciting such horrible sentiments from its supporters. Quite frankly, its downright frightening. In the name of decency, the media needs to put an end to this type of rhetoric and inciting of hatred!! The world is watching and watching in total dismay today!!
Posted by: Dee | Oct 6, 2008 7:27:36 PM
Dean I think it was the dem's freddie and fanniology that started this crisis, so let's pour gasoline on the fire and vote for the messiah.
Posted by: NOBAMA | Oct 6, 2008 7:30:22 PM
It's the economy stupid, Obama has Ohio. Sorry Johnny.
Posted by: hmn | Oct 6, 2008 7:30:28 PM
I was almost a little let down by Obama in the bailout vote but this garbage by the "old man and the attack hag" brought me back.
Posted by: Jeff | Oct 6, 2008 7:32:30 PM
Let's see hmn....its experience,integrity,backbone,believabilityand moving forward with growth and not backwards with recycled disgraced Carter policies stupid!
Posted by: NOBAMA | Oct 6, 2008 7:37:10 PM
What does Obama do for the current economy? Speeches?
Posted by: alison | Oct 6, 2008 7:39:05 PM
That's correct alison --that's all you ever get.He did however go to Hollywood at the start of this crises to get9mil.I guess they have a lot in common with Ohians.?
Posted by: NOBAMA | Oct 6, 2008 7:44:07 PM
if you want the same vote for McCain liar and desparado. If you want jobs coming to OHIO, vote for Obama/Biden. Republicans had their chance to show what they did. They sent our kids to war by telling lies. McCain wants to have a victory. He is a fool because we do not have a physical feature to capture and when caputred call it a victory. Sorry, there will never be an end point in our war in Iraq, we will just keep spending billions of dollars and have our soldiers killed. It is time now to change all that by not voting for McCain who is 72 and needs to retire. Palin is even more dangerous.
Posted by: silkwool | Oct 6, 2008 7:56:55 PM
I was just watching a group of economist who want Bush to bail out the banks in Europe. Watch out for a back door bail out by giving hundreds of billions to U.S. banks and having them give the money to European banks. We are getting very close to a world order. One world bank, one world leader.
Ex Republican
Posted by: RGeier | Oct 6, 2008 8:06:17 PM
If Obama is up 6 in North Caroline, you know he's doing good in Ohio.
Posted by: bubba | Oct 6, 2008 8:28:01 PM
I say this as a lifelong republican voter. John McCain needs to focus on issues or he's going to lose this thing. These distractions he keeps creating arent' helping.
Posted by: bobc | Oct 6, 2008 8:33:10 PM
I almost feel sorry for McCain because he seems so desperate, it's pathetic. I'm saying that not because I support Obama, either. I used to have respect for McCain, but I think he's losing his mind.
Posted by: Hoosier for Obama | Oct 6, 2008 8:41:03 PM
Two months ago I was afraid that my worst assessment of the average IQ of Americans was being realized. Now it appears that there were just not enough people paying attention.
Now that the election draws near the American public is narrowing onto the issues, and not the lies and petty misrepresentations by the Republicans.
This most important election is finally starting to transcend the politics of the past, and the American electorate is as intelligent as I had only hoped.
Maybe as a nation we have finally come far enough to look past the politics of fear and smear, and have grown enough to accept that a true leader can come packaged in any form.
I know that there will always be, at the very least, a sub-culture of ignorance and hatred; however, the success of Obama, a truly intelligent and visionary man, with a weird name, makes me proud to be in a country where this can actually happen.
Imagine...If we can grow just a little more, we collectively can laugh down future fear and smear politics, and force the candidates to stick with the issues.
Obama/Biden - The Future
Posted by: Rob | Oct 6, 2008 8:53:07 PM
Just one poll has Obama ahead in Ohio, on the contrary local state polls have McCain ahead in Ohio. Let the Obama camp continue to be deluded, there is no way Ohio is going to vote for this radical Obama, Obama is not doing well in areas that Dem candidates traditionally have the advantage.
Posted by: Greg h | Oct 6, 2008 9:08:15 PM
I still can't believe how Bush got re-elected and how real dumb are majority in this country.
Atleast after 8 years of disaster in every possible arena, The people should realise that failed Republican policy and McSame should be voted down, So history will be indicator to future evil like Karl Rove.
All those 40% or so idiots who can't still see how terrible state is this country is should wake up.
I still can't believe that 20% + still thinks Bush is doing great job.
Wake up people!!!
Vote for better future, Vote for Obama!
Posted by: SJ | Oct 6, 2008 9:12:00 PM
It's OVA, you America-Bashing republicans. Go destroy another country for a change.
Posted by: clifton | Oct 6, 2008 9:12:56 PM
Theres a credit crisis because the crooks don't trust each other.
Obama's taxes will shut down jobs from the only people with money to create business an jobs.
McCain wants to tax the health credits. The middleclass has no help or hope.
The Lesser of the 2 evils is McCain because he will stimuate the better chance for job growth.
If we don't get jobs, we'll All be homeless and healthcare will be a last ranking concern.
Posted by: Vote McCain | Oct 6, 2008 9:16:01 PM
when Hillary and Barack were in the primaries, it was fun and exciting to entertain the idea of Barack becoming President. Now with him up in the polls, we should all imagine it not in just a fantasy sense, but in an it could really happen sense. What will a Barack Obama Presidency look like? It won't be good for any of us moderates. Does he believe in big government, more government intervention, and higher taxes? As Sen. Obama would say, these are false choices and false categories, but they are relevant. it is not enough to just say, "I'm for smarter government." duh.
Posted by: Clintonites for McCain | Oct 6, 2008 9:40:11 PM
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