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Will The Jobs Be Coming Back Anytime Soon?
November 16, 2009 2:31 PM
ABC's Stu Schutzman reports from New York:
Some employment experts say yes. Even as the numbers get bleaker by the month and the phrase “jobless recovery” resounds more and more in the media, some analysts believe the bottom is near and a reversal in the jobs picture could happen soon. This would seem to some counterintuitive given all we’ve been hearing lately about employers leaning to do more with less ie reaching their productivity quotas with fewer workers.
This “new normal” has been like a dagger to the heart of the American labor force -- 7 million of whom have seen their jobs disappear in just the last two years. And the latest productivity number, which showed worker output up annually at an astounding rate of 9.5%, was proof-positive to many experts that employers really have learned to do more with less. So where are the green shoots in all this?
“Before things get better, they have to get worse more slowly,” writes business journalist Daniel Gross in Slate, “That’s already happening. After the credit meltdown, companies prepared for Armageddon by hacking jobs indiscriminately.” They panicked and cut their workforces to the bone. Now many of them are working their workforces, those who are left, to the bone. “At a certain point,” says employment economist Lakshman Achuthan, “People will start to collapse at work.” Which is not a very good recipe for sustaining those high productivity numbers that employers covet.
“Just as hamsters can run only so fast on their treadmills,” says Gross, “there are limits to productivity growth.” The bottom line, say some experts, is that another quarter of economic growth could spark the beginnings of a hiring frenzy. “There’s an outside chance,” says economist Michael Darda, “We could see job growth by the end of the year.”
Not all economists are as sanguine. “Think the worst is over?” asks NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, “Wrong,” he writes in the NY Daily News. “If you are unemployed and looking for work and just waiting for the economy to turn the corner,” he writes, “You had better hunker down.”
Economic forecasting, like predicting the weather, is an inexact science. Both often dead right…..until they’re not.
November 16, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (35)
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There will continue to be growth in unemployment through 2012. There will be no significant recovery before 2014, if then.
The government has lost all perspective on what drives this economy. They are doing none of the things necessary to revive job growth and economic well-being.
Until they figure that out, and take some positive action to reverse the losses in jobs, there won't be a recovery.
Posted by: Rick McDaniel | Nov 16, 2009 3:05:07 PM
That only depends upon how fast we can dump every incumbent politician that supports free trade. Get rid of the Clinton-Bush-Obama free trade train wreck, dump the H1-B and L-1 guest worker visas, reenact trade tariffs, duties, fees, and add some stiff punitive taxes on every outsourced good or service; a $5 per U.S. service call handled by an offshore call center, a 100% tariff, minimum $200 tax on foreign assembled computers, and the same for clothing, shoes, toys, pharmaceuticals, would result in a flood of jobs returning home that would end the current depression within 6 months. All we need are jobs. But, our current "representatives" are clueless fools, answering to corporations and Wall Street and not the voters. So, we have to get rid of them. Start with the "leadership" of both parties.
Posted by: Mike Brooks | Nov 16, 2009 3:34:24 PM
Do we make stuff people want to buy? If we do and we make it cheap enough to be competitive in the global marketplace, then we can grow industries and produce jobs.
Posted by: Huh | Nov 16, 2009 3:34:45 PM
huh..nice try but labor costs here are too high and obama and the seiu will come after you for even saying to try to cut their inflated wages to be more competitive. In addition if the cap and trade costs are voted in you can forget about ever competing with China. Rick is correct no employers are going to hire with the potential added costs of the health care and the cap and trade bills being pushed by this cowardly president.
Posted by: jake | Nov 16, 2009 3:48:25 PM
Lets hope there are still people among us that have not forgotten the fundamentals of survival. Bad has it come, the worse is yet to be seen
Posted by: Rock | Nov 16, 2009 4:01:04 PM
I'm dying to find out what kind of a stupid Free Trade Agreement addendum we will be stuck with next. Obama is there giving the U.S.A. away to the rest of the world. He will be sure to screw us over even further. We owe China so much money now, thanks to Obama, we will never be free of Free Trade...We might as well just give the Chinese the keys to all of our United States.
Posted by: Sharon | Nov 16, 2009 4:03:19 PM
No, the jobs will not be back, if ever, or any time soon. The economy was hijacked and jobs exported out of the country. As an example, Mexico builds and exports more cars to the US than our country exports to the rest of the world. It should be remembered and realized that many of the empowered are getting very wealthy when jobs are sent to cheap labor areas of the world. The problem with this is, these people are making products which come back to this country to be sold, and the balance of payments is very out-of-balance. This cannot continue indefinitely. Our standard of living suffers dramatically; the jobs which paid decent wages to laborers no longer allow them to be consumer/buyers because the jobs are gone. There will not be enough hamburger joints to employ all those who need work. Our politicians share a great deal of the blame for our economic collapse as they protect and sponsor the interests of the exploiters. New jobs will be difficult to cultivate in an uphill battle against all the forces preventing businesses to hire and expand. Some openly fight against job creation such as Rep. P. Hoekstra who represents a state with the nation's highest unemployment for four years running. He voted against TARP1 and the stimulus program. Sad but very true.
Posted by: clever bob | Nov 16, 2009 4:26:21 PM
The American Revolution is coming again.Taxation without representation
started it last time too.
Posted by: j doe | Nov 16, 2009 4:55:08 PM
Unless Americans are willing to pay higher prices for products and services currently provided from other countries, the jobs will not return here.
As well, the mass discrepancy between quality of life in America and the rest of the world is leveling right now, which can do nothing except lower the standard of living in the United States.
If quality of life here is to remain high, we must provide opportunity for all Americans to earn wages - which means opening new markets for products and services.
Posted by: michelle | Nov 16, 2009 5:11:09 PM
Carter Redux?
Posted by: Todd | Nov 16, 2009 5:25:49 PM
Most of Asia is more highly educated than ourselves and especially within the technological fields...Japan graduates most of the scientists of the world...and as we complain of our jobs being outsourced which is definitely huge part of the problem, we continue to rank in the bottom half as far as graduating people educated enough to enter the 21st century work force...our premiere universities are losing status,however, those on foreign visas graduating from the benefit of our best colleges, they return to their native lands...how can we be the number one innovators of the world if we do not have the intellectual prowess?
Posted by: Phallon | Nov 16, 2009 6:12:19 PM
Rick McDaniel is soooo right!
Posted by: ejo | Nov 16, 2009 6:41:28 PM
This article was written in our local Seattle paper, the the gist of his comments was this: "I don't see any sign our leaders understand the foolishness of free trade,".. "The low-cost provider of goods and services will dominate the globe, because they have slave labor". Translation:
"China will have everything"
Posted by: Sharon | Nov 16, 2009 6:45:59 PM
More good News ! Cap & Trade will collect over 1.5 trillion in taxes alone, on the fuel penality provision alone. Guess where the money will eventually wind up ? Not here in the US.
We owe it to the 3rd world nations for being kept down and exploited. The hell with our confused and deterioted
situation here; Killer defict; Jobs dried up; State goverments upside down;
NONE of the cap & Trade money will stay here, but the taxes, taxes, taxes will
hasten the colapse, and our entry into the relm of a 2nd world nation.
Was this the CHANGE you envisioned??
Posted by: YWD | Nov 16, 2009 6:59:34 PM
I have never bought anything that is not American made if at all possible. anybody who is out of work or is worried about being laid off should consider doing the same, in just one or two years we could regain our country and our economy if all americans would buy made in america. Then you would not bough to the japanese emperor he would come on his knees again.od bless America.
Posted by: earl | Nov 16, 2009 7:10:56 PM
earl - don't worry, those of us who are out of work are not buying anything at al...
Posted by: zann | Nov 16, 2009 7:50:35 PM
ohbummer.
Posted by: gatorsnc81 | Nov 16, 2009 8:29:10 PM
Instead of dreary, compulsory National Health Care with fines and jail time, what we need is happy, compulsory National Shopping with fines and jail time for all citizens over the age of three who fail to shop their daily quotas. Even illegal aliens could participate. Poor persons and the homeless would be given government shopping stamps - it gets the homeless off the street and into the malls.
It would end the recession quickly and all politicians supporting such a law are assured of plentiful contributions from Chinese bus boys.
Posted by: jeff200 | Nov 16, 2009 8:34:51 PM
Americans should make chop sticks and sell them to the chinese.
Posted by: myopinion | Nov 16, 2009 8:48:57 PM
jake - What do you mean nice try? I was just stating the obvious, and everything you said I agree with.
Posted by: Huh | Nov 16, 2009 8:52:52 PM
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