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The End of Olmert

July 31, 2008 9:14 AM

By Simon McGregor-Wood - Middle East Correspondent

So it’s finally over.

Two years after he was urged to step down in the aftermath of the war in Lebanon, Ehud Olmert has finally decided to do so.

One Israeli commentator wrote this morning that with Olmert’s departure the last chapter of the failed war comes to a close.

In the end though, it was allegations of corruption that pushed the prime minister over the edge.

Five separate police investigations proved too much, even for a political survivor like Olmert.

In the end he lost the support of his close political allies.

On Friday he will again be questioned by police. All at a time when Israel faces serious challenges.

A smooth transition of power may be what Israel needs right now, but it is by no means clear who will take over and whether new elections can be avoided.

Tzipi Livni the current foreign minister is the favorite to take over leadership of the Kadima Party and therefore be given the chance to form the next government.

She is a moderate and deeply involved in the peace talks with the Palestinians.

But running a close second is Shaul Mofaz. He is the Transport Minister but was a former chief of staff and defence minister. He is casting himself in the light of a security specialist – always popular with Israelis.

Whoever takes over the party must then form a coalition government with other parties.

That coalition must control over 60 seats in the parliament or Knesset. That will not be easy. If they fail there will be new elections and even more uncertainty.

Leading the polling for new general elections is Benyamin Netanyahu leader of the right wing Likud Party.

Netanyahu has been prime minister before and is a security hawk. His victory would call into question the continuation of the peace process. It may even make an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear program more likely.

Whatever happens Israelis are sick and tired of their politicians. Many complain about endemic corruption and yearn for a new generation to emerge.

Ehud Olmert’s resignation means Israeli politicians will spend much of the next few months in back room dealing, jockeying for position and favor.

It is difficult to see how that will be good for the peace process.

And whoever takes over in the White House in January will need a reliable partner in power in Israel. It is very hard to predict who that will now be.

July 31, 2008 in Simon McGregor-Wood | Permalink | User Comments (2)

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