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Obama Brings Hope to African-Iraqis

January 30, 2009 2:47 PM

By AADEL RASHID, ABC News Baghdad

Despite the thousands of miles that separate the United States and Iraq’s port city of Basra, Iraq’s black minority eagerly celebrated the inauguration of President Barack Obama.

Hundreds of African-Iraqis whose ancestors were brought to Iraq from eastern Africa as slaves exchanged greetings after the inauguration ended. Iraq is home to an estimated 2 million African Iraqis, according to Salim Shaaban, a member of the Free Movement of Iraq.

They traditionally worked between the two cities of Basra and Wasit and lived in very bad conditions. Despite working long hours, they were paid nothing except for a few dates and some flour and this is widely believed to be the reason African-Iraqis rebelled against the Abbasid Caliph in Basra in the ninth century protesting against slavery.

The impact of that revolution still echoes today in the common saying, “Baad Kharab A Basra,” meaning, “it’s too late.” The saying was coined after the revolution and is used to express a sense of helplessness, because after the revolt by African-Iraqis, the latter destroyed Basra avenging their mistreatment by the Caliph.

About 1,100 years after that revolution, a glimpse of hope was reignited among African-Iraqis when the Free Movement of Iraq was established. It was the first political entity to call for the rights of black people.

Abdul Hussein Abdul Razak, the general secretary of the movement, told ABC News that the group’s movement was established in 2005 and focuses on ending racist discrimination against the African-Iraqis. Reports suggest that discrimination against African-Iraqis is still a problem in Iraq, with many claiming that they face problems at work because of their skin color.

But Jamal Ahmed, an Arab Iraqi resident of Basra, denied the existence of any such discrimination. “I grew up in Basra and I had friends of different colors, white and black, we didn’t notice or feel...any sort of discrimination,” he told ABC News. "I have a feeling that those [African-Iraqis] who claim they were oppressed are only addressing their speech to the Americans.”

His views were contradicted by Razak, who said that African-Iraqis in the city of Basra “are given the lowest jobs and none yet [have] acquired any position within the government.”

He emphasized the need to have someone to represent African-Iraqis in parliament as well as to hold provincial office. "Other members of my movement are also running for office in the provincial elections and we are looking forward for any position that we can get,” he said.

Eight candidates are running for office -- four men and four women -- Razak said, adding, “we believe in equality between male and female.”

Razak said Obama’s victory is a victory for all black people all around the world. He expressed his hope that Obama’s inauguration would have its effect on Iraq and would show the world that “there is really no difference between white or black, we are all human beings in the end.”

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January 30, 2009 in Aadel Rashid | Permalink | User Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)

With Zimbabwe's Survival at Stake, the Opposition Makes a Deal

January 30, 2009 2:37 PM

DANA HUGHES, ABC News, Nairobi

Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of Zimbabwe’s opposition party Movement for Democratic Change today announced that even though he and his party still don’t trust President Robert Mugabe and his ruling party Zanu-PF, they will enter into a unity government. The announcement has at least temporarily ended a political standoff since a power-sharing deal was first agreed to in September.

MDC members may have felt as if they didn’t have much of a choice. The situation in Zimbabwe was nearly untenable even before the original deal was made five months ago. Tsvangirai won the first round of presidential elections last March, but Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe for nearly 30 years, declared that he was not going to lose.

"Only God" could make him step down he said as he began a systematic campaign against Tsvangirai and his supporters, who made up a good portion of the country. "Re-education camps" were reportedly set up across the country where people who'd voted for MDC were taken and tortured by members of Mugabe’s regime. Gangs of young men, largely believed to have been given drugs and food by Mugabe’s henchmen, roamed the streets chanting pro-Mugabe slogans and promptly beating people whom they deemed "disloyal."

By the time the final round of polls came around in June, Tsvangirai had decided to withdraw; he said the prospect of his winning seemed too risky for the people of Zimbabwe. He instead decided to continue to rely on the "quiet diplomacy" of South Africa and other regional leaders, who eventually got Mugabe to agree to a power-sharing deal. Problem was, Mugabe wasn’t into sharing any of the power. Tsvangirai was offered a prime minister position, largely ceremonial, with all executive powers and top Cabinet positions staying with Mugabe and his party.

But if the situation in Zimbabwe during the polls was horrid, it’s now dire. The country is literally imploding. The joke, "Zimbabwe is a country of billionaires" is no longer remotely funny. After recently issuing the first Zimbabwean trillion-dollar note, the equivalent of only a few U.S. cents, the Zimbabwean Treasury finally admitted what the world’s been saying for years: Zimbabwe’s economy is in collapse. Acting Finance Minister Patrick Chinimasa announced this week that Zimbabwean businesses could now legally accept other currencies, something most upscale and expat businesses were already doing, but now nobody would take the Zim dollar. International media outlets are strewn with stories of teachers, doctors, nurses and other professionals who cannot afford to go to work because while they are being paid in local currency -- even operators of public buses are demanding to be paid in dollars, euros or South African rand.

In an Al-Jazeera English report, a woman at a bus station unable to board her bus yells at the driver. "He’s saying heonly takes U.S. dollars, but I have only Zim dollars," she says. In exasperation she asks, "Where would I get U.S. dollars from? I’m Zimbabwean!"

Zimbabwe’s economy, ironically, is not the biggest problem the country has right now. The country is in the midst of a cholera epidemic so serious that World Health Organization officials are calling it "the worst case scenario." More than 3,000 people have died and more than 60,000 are infected. The disease is affecting nearly every province of Zimbabwe. Cholera is a highly treatable and preventable disease, but because Zimbabwe’s health care system has completely fallen apart and there is no sanitation or clean water, the country is ripe for infestation.

Unfortunately aid organizations fear that the situation will get worse before it gets better. The rainy season is approaching, a deadly environment for cholera to spread, and the World Food Program is warning that 7 million people, more than half of Zimbabwe’s population, will need food aid in the next two months. With the current political stalemate, even if the government could provide services, there are no permanent Cabinet members to determine policy, and foreign donors are unwilling to invest in Zimbabwe as long as Mugabe is solely in charge.

These are the circumstances under which Tsvagirai and his MDC party find themselves: thousands of people dead, starving and unable to support themselves, and a government unable and unwilling to help. When Tsvangirai withdrew from the presidential race in June he said he was doing it to "save the lives of his supporters." It may be now that by agreeing to share power with a man who’s been labeled one of the world’s worst dictators, he is again making that choice.

January 30, 2009 in Dana Hughes | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The Return of the Romans?

January 30, 2009 10:43 AM

By Gabriel O’Rorke, ABC News, London

Several members of staff at the Derbyshire Royal Infirmary have reported sightings of a male figure dressed in a dark cloak. Shaken workers claim to have seen the ghost roaming the wards and darting through walls, especially in departments near the morgue.

Laura Skaife, Senior Communications Manager at the Royal Infirmary, told ABC News that several workers have reported sightings of a ghost. However, she strongly denied reports in The Sun newspaper that managers called in a local priest to exorcise the building:

“It is deeply frustrating that The Sun has published th is. Their reporter asked us about the possibility of an exorcism yesterday, and we strongly denied this,” Skaife told ABC News.

The city of Derby was recently named the most haunted place in Britain, with more people claiming to have seen ghosts, poltergeists, werewolves and other supernatural phenomena than anywhere else in the UK.

However, whilst ghost hunters flock to Derby in pursuit of the paranormal, members of staff at the hospital remain grounded.

“We will be talking to staff in the department to listen to their concerns. We respect our staff and always listen to their views to help put minds at ease,” Skaife told ABC News.

There is speculation, based on his cloaked attire, that the ghost was a Roman soldier killed on the site. The area has been occupied by a hospital since the 1920s when the original was built over part of a Roman road dating back to Ancient Britain.

The haunted building is not yet complete; the state-of-the-art hospital is undergoing a $475 million renovation, due to be finished in the next few months.

Perhaps the Roman phantom is frustrated by modern building techniques.

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January 30, 2009 in Gabriel O'Rorke | Permalink | User Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)

France disrupted by massive nationwide strike

January 29, 2009 2:57 PM

By Christophe Schpoliansky, Producer, ABC News Paris.

The main French unions called today for a national day of strikes and demonstrations throughout the country to ask for urgent measures to be taken to protect jobs, salaries and purchasing power during the global economic crisis.

Hundreds of thousands of people marched on the streets of more than 200 French cities. French police estimated the number of protesters around the country at more than 1 million while the Confédération Générale des Travailleurs, France’s main union, announced that 2.5 million people had taken part in the protest nationwide. Work stoppages affected all sectors of the economy, including the private sector, which usually does not easily go on strike: transportation, hospitals, schools, banks, the automobile industry, among many other sectors.

At midday, union leaders expressed their satisfaction at the workers’ mobilization. The nationwide demonstrations are “the most important demonstrations we’ve seen in about 20 years,” French Democratic Confederation of Labor union leader François Chérèque said at the beginning of the Paris demo, which, according to police, drew 65,000 protesters. According to workers unions, 300,000 protesters gathered in Paris.

Today’s events were the first real test for conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy and his government. Their aim was to highlight fears over growing unemployment, discontent over Sarkozy’s reluctance to help consumers and resentment toward bankers blamed for the economic slump. At the same time, many people view the president as all too ready to rescue banks via stimulus packages.

A poll published Sunday showed that 69 percent of those polled “have sympathy for the national day of strike and demonstration.”

“Anxiety, anguish for some, sufferings for others, I perfectly understand that … but I cannot stop the movement of reforms,” Sarkozy said Tuesday in Châteauroux, western France. “In a democracy, it is normal that people protest, it is normal there is a debate … but I was elected to conduct a country of 65 million people and I want us to get out of the crisis stronger than when we got into it.”

Today, Sarkozy had nothing on his public agenda and spent the day in the Elysée Palace. Tonight, Sarkozy announced in a statement that he would meet in February with labor and employers unions to consider a schedule of reforms to be conducted in 2009.

“The government has acquired credibility in its rescue plan towards banks and sector facing difficulties, but now it must address to the entire workers of both private and public sectors who are worried,” French political analyst Pascal Perrineau told France 2 TV today.

The only satisfaction for people working today is that what was expected to be a Black Thursday in the public transportation system, traditionally the sector most affected by the strikes, turned out to be a much less chaotic day. Disruptions this morning were less important than anticipated. This is partly because a 2007 law ensuring minimal service in the public sector was implemented and workers who wished to go on strike had to declare so in advance, allowing plans to be made. Some subways, buses and regional trains had to operate and many people were surprised to be able to board subways and trains. Also, many people simply took the day off and stayed home, often to care for their kids whose teachers were on strike.

“I saw a lot less people today and the people who came to buy a newspaper told me that curiously, things went pretty well in the public transportation system. Automobile traffic was fine as well in and around Paris because I think a lot of people took the day off today,” Marc Larapidie, who owns a newsstand next to a metro exit in Levallois, outside Paris, told ABCNews.com.

January 29, 2009 in Christophe Schpoliansky | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Anatomy of the Complaint Letter

January 29, 2009 8:45 AM

By ESTHER YOUNG, ABC News London

By now, you are perhaps one of about 1 million lucky viewers who have gazed upon this complaint letter to Virgin's Richard Branson, detailing one passenger's severe disappointment with the airline's food.

This letter transcends the usual tips for writing effective grievances, which traditionally lean toward concise and to the point.

No. This is an entertaining letter, one of the few and the proud to make it big as an Internet sensation and forwarded e-mail, garnering cult fame and even a job offer from Branson.

But be forewarned, future gripers: Snippy comments and sheer anger do not an entertaining complaint letter make. One needs something extra. Nuance. Finesse.

For future reference, here are some tips:

Include Pictures: It is funnier because it is true, and the irrefutable visual proof provides a journalistic wallop to your claim. The picture of the dessert is a favorite, an effective combo of green-pea horror and blurriness that recalls the Loch Ness monster, or at least this famous picture of Big Foot.

Make it Personal: Please note the number of times the letter refers to Mr. Branson (12 times). This implicates the media-savvy tycoon as directly responsible for the passenger's pain. Providing a PR-friendly opportunity to the ultimate opportunist cannot hurt.

Use Effective Imagery, Exhibit A: "The potato masher had obviously broken, and so it was decided the next best thing would be to pass the potatoes through the digestive tract of a bird. Once it was regurgitated it was clearly then blended and mixed with a bit of mustard." Although many have not personally seen sparrow-processed spuds, many can imagine that it would look like this man's meal.

Use Effective Imagery, Exhibit B: "Imagine being a twelve year old boy Richard. Now imagine it's Christmas morning and you're sat their with your final present to open...only you open the present and it's not in there. It's your hamster Richard. It's your hamster in the box and it's not breathing. That's how I felt when I peeled back the foil and saw this.…" Anyone who has seen a dead hamster can commiserate. Emotional manipulation is always a good tool.

Happy grumbling, dissatisfied customers.

P.S. Tips not 100 percent money-back guaranteed.

Fish n' Chips

January 28, 2009 12:56 PM

Forget old toast, millet cakes and whatever other bang-for-buck foods that were previous signs of an economic depression. In Britain, this economic downturn has apparently proved to be a boon for the traditional fish and chips.

According to Seafish, which promotes the seafood industry, sales at some 9,500 fish-and-chips shops across the U.K. rose in 2008 for the first time in five years.

The trend may have extended to other fast-food outlets. McDonald's, for example, has reported a 7.6 percent increase in European sales. "It's certainly busier than usual," said one stressed-out manager at a west London McDonald's.

Not everybody, however, is feeling the change of tide. Youssef, a chip-shop worker in the same west London neighborhood as McDonald's, said he hasn't seen a great rise in business. "It all depends on the theater next door, the hour or the day," he said. He said his profits fell slightly in the last year, because although he got more customers, all they wanted were the penny-saving chips.

Some have found business by expanding the cheap-and-convenient motto beyond food. Nearby, Ringo Pizza offers cigarettes, alcohol and tissue paper, in addition to its traditional menu. "We [are] also open 24 hours," said a Ringo's worker. "I think that helps."

It seems that in the end, like for other businesses, the success of these shops depends mostly on location, service and luck. In unrelated news, did you know that Chinese tradition associates fish with abundant fortune?

January 28, 2009 in Esther Young | Permalink | User Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)

Obama’s First Moves: MidEast Reacts to Mitchell

January 28, 2009 3:51 AM

By Lara Setrakian, ABC News, Dubai

As former Senator George Mitchell begins his Middle East tour, tasked with solving the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, the Arab press is ablaze with reactions. Lebanon’s an-Nahar newspaper, owned by pro-Western elements in that country, criticized Obama’s policy start for lack of originality.

“There should have been a search for different plans, revolutionary visions, unusual approaches, a new strategy, creative people, and a readiness to abandon the old. With all his calls for change, his alternative logic, and his creative ideas, Barack Obama has done nothing for the Middle East but bring back Mitchell from old boxes, dust off his plans eroded by forgetfulness, and ask a figure from the past to fulfill a mission from the past,” wrote An-Nahar’s Amin Qammouriyyeh, as translated by the Middle East Mirror.

The cynicism comes from what’s seen as failed experience – after Mitchell’s success in Northern Ireland and before his famous tackling of steroids in sports, Mitchell was tapped by the Clinton administration to chair a fact-finding committee working toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace.

“Mitchell is now returning to the Middle East. But he is now nine years older and the situation in the region has gone back ten years. In fact, the current scene seems much worse than the old scene he witnessed in 2001,” wrote An-Nahar, citing Palestinian political divisions, a lack of strong leadership in Ramallah, and the advance of Israeli settlements.

The regional al-Quds al-Arabi, among others, made note of Mitchell’s Arab-American roots – his mother was an immigrant from Lebanon, his father Irish-Catholic – but did so with caution.

“The Arab officials who will meet with the U.S. envoy must bear in mind that the man represents the interests of an U.S. administration. In fact, his Arab origins may force him to adopt a more hardline position with the Arabs so as to prove his loyalty to this administration by displaying the highest degree of neutrality possible,” said the paper.

Perhaps ironically, one of the softer voices came from Syrian newspaper ath-Thawra:

“[Mitchell’s] visit is a reflection of the administration’s desire to get involved in an active peace process,” wrote Ali Nasrallah

“This administration must realize…that it cannot start from square one. It must review the experiences of the past years in order to familiarize itself with the facts, and it must resort to the criteria, requirements, and prerequisites of peace.”

That analysis is fairly consistent with the tone Obama himself has set for the trip. In his first formal interview since the inauguration, Obama said to Al Arabiya television:

“What I told [Mitchell] is start by listening, because all too often the United States starts by dictating -- in the past on some of these issues -- and we don't always know all the factors that are involved. So let's listen. He's going to be speaking to all the major parties involved…from there we will formulate a specific response.”

That Obama gave his first major interview to Al Arabiya, a Saudi-owned network based in Dubai, was an added gesture of goodwill to a region where what you say can be as important as where you say it.

Inhale, Exhale, Don't Chant - Indonesian Islamic Authority Bans Yoga with Hindu Rituals

January 27, 2009 9:18 AM

By Margaret Conley, ABC News, Indonesia

The Indonesian Council of Ulema (MUI) has stirred debate here after issuing a string of fatwas or edicts on Islamic law.

Voting, abortion, vasectomies, smoking and yoga are among the many hot topics that have been covered in the decrees issued in the last few days in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.

The most devout of Muslims generally adhere to fatwas, although technically they are not mandatory.

“The fact is that a fatwa is not legally binding," said Muslim scholar Azyumardi Azra, according to the Jakarta Globe. "People can choose to follow it or just ignore it.”

The new fatwas reportedly include:

That it is forbidden to abstain from voting in elections with “qualified candidates.”

Abortions are banned unless the pregnancy endangers the mother’s life, she was raped or the fetus is less than five weeks old.

Smoking is banned for children and pregnant women and in public places.

Vasectomies are banned because they are irreversible.

And one of the most talked about of the decrees:

Yoga is banned if practiced with Hindu rituals or chants.

The yoga fatwa follows in the footsteps of Malaysia, where yoga was banned outright late last year, triggering widespread protests. In November Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi softened the ban, saying Muslims could practice yoga as long as they did not chant, which to some Muslims is derived from the Hindu religion.

It’s a compromise included in the Indonesian fatwa. “If it is purely a physical exercise or sport, it is not considered haram [or forbidden],” Umar Shihab, the chairman of the MUI, told the Jakarta Globe. “We are afraid that chanting could weaken their Islamic faith.”

Yoga is a physical and mental discipline that originated in India and it is popularly practiced across the globe, including in the capital city of Jakarta where pollution and traffic dissuade many from outdoor exercise.

“Yoga is a big subject,” Mony Suriany, an Indonesian Bikram Yoga studio owner, said. “It’s like dance. There’s the cha-cha, tango, ballroom dance.”

Her specialty is hot yoga, the physical challenge of practicing in a studio cranked up to 100-107 degrees.

Suriany’s studio, located in the south Jakarta neighborhood of Kemang, passes the fatwa test.

Suriany says the MUI visited the studio three times to evaluate, study and photograph classes. The clerics did not participate in any yoga sessions.

“This yoga is 100 percent physical,” she said. “There is no meditation, no chanting, no ‘ohms.’”

"In other studios, I do other styles,” she said. “I believe in all the benefits yoga brings to my life. I'm Christian. Yoga has nothing to do with religion."

Jet-Setting Heir to North Korean Throne Speaks

January 27, 2009 7:14 AM

By JOOHEE CHO, Reporter, ABC News Seoul

The Japanese media’s obsession with North Korea amazes me. Today, I was channel surfing at a remote hot spring resort room in Kinugawa Onsen and came across NTV's daily evening magazine show called "Real Time." It was airing an interview with the North Korean leader's eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, followed by an exclusive hidden-camera report on the communist country's black market.

As a reporter covering the Korean peninsula for the past 15 years, I was half surprised and admittedly half envious over their luck at getting those two currently-most-wanted stories on camera. The world is eagerly watching and guessing as to when the famine-struck country might collapse, as well as who will succeed the "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il, who is old and reportedly ill.

So, grasping every sense of what little Japanese I could understand, here's what I saw on NTV. They caught Kim Jong Nam in Beijing, wearing a black down jacket with matching black Ray-Ban-style sunglasses. Surrounded by about a dozen reporters, he spoke in broken but comprehensible English.

Asked about his father's health, he replied that he cannot say anything because that kind of information is a "state secret." A follow-up question: do you want to be the successor? He answered with a shrug. "That is too early to tell. My father will decide when he decides... but personally I'm not interested at all."

As he tried to walk away, reporters continued to fire questions at him. "Do you speak Japanese?" "Do you like Japan?" (Obviously, these reporters were Japanese.) Kim's answer: "No, but I think Japan is clean and economically interesting." Another reporter asked a question in Japanese. With a smirk, Kim replied, "I told you I don't speak Japanese. I speak English and French."

When another reporter asked whether he wants to travel to Japan, my first journalistic instinct was that that was the end of the interview, since we ask sensitive questions last. Kim Jong Nam was kicked out of Japan in 2001 for trying to enter the country with a fake Dominican passport. He has said he wanted to visit Tokyo Disneyland.

Surprisingly, Kim was not upset; rather, he seemed to enjoy the attention. He simply gave a silent laugh and said, "I cannot travel to Japan since that day a few years ago."

Kim got in a taxi, alone. It was odd to see the Dear Leader's eldest son without a North Korean diplomat or an official escorting him in a limousine, which, after all, gives weight to the theory that he is an outcast at the moment because of his western lifestyle and his birth background.

He was born to a woman whom his father fell in love with, against the late founder Kim Il Sung's approval. She was married to another man at the time. Naturally, Kim Jong Nam's mother was never officially recognized as the first lady, which makes him a child out of wedlock.

NTV cameras followed Kim's taxi to the hotel. They caught up to him in the hotel lobby, this time without his sunglasses: chubby face and double chin, in striking similarity to his father's younger days. He said he was lucky because he can travel freely around the world. Asked whether his father approves, he replied, "Of course. I won't be able to travel without his permission."

While Kim hops around the world, NTV's next report was on the starving people of his country. Shot with a hidden camera inside a North Korean town, the visuals were simply appalling. Children were wandering around the market scavenging for leftover food from trash. One boy was lying down on the roadside, too weak and sick to get up, but people were passing by as if he was not there. The cameraman went back to that spot three days later only to find him still there.

In another scene shot late at night, the cameraman -- whose accent was North Korean -- talked to three young boys shivering in the cold hunched together in the woods. They were orphaned after their parents died of hunger.

North Korea's famine is nothing new. But what was new caught on camera was the vibrant black market. Street vendors sold color TVs, DVDs, cassette recorders, electronic rice makers, and even food mixers.

Next to those shops were lines of young women sitting on plastic chairs holding up cardboards with lists of items they could sell. Most were electronic goods, clothing, shampoo and hair conditioner, and skin care products.

Men with rickshaws wooed customers, offering delivery service. In the outskirts of that main market were older women crouched on the ground selling vegetables. Later, a policeman showed up to chase them away. Selling and buying without government license, especially in the black market, is heavily punished in North Korea.

At the end of the show one thought reverberated in my mind: where humans live, everybody will find a way to make a living, somehow. But those children... in the dark, in the cold...who will help them?

Saudi Prince Warns Obama, Revives Succession Speculation

January 26, 2009 2:58 PM

By Lara Setrakian, ABC News, Dubai

The political buzz from the Gulf this week is over the words of Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal to the Obama administration, as written in his Financial Times Op-Ed Friday. Turki says President Bush has left a "sickening legacy" in the Middle East and warns that President Barack Obama risks U.S. relations with the Saudis if he (and, by relation, his new envoy George Mitchell) fail to make progress on solving the Arab-Israeli conflict.

“If the U.S. wants to continue playing a leadership role in the Middle East and keep its strategic alliances intact -- especially its ‘special relationship’ with Saudi Arabia -- it will have to drastically revise its policies vis-a-vis Israel and Palestine,” wrote Prince Turki, a former head of Saudi intelligence and ex-ambassador to Washington. The prince holds no official position at the moment but is given credit for speaking on behalf of Saudi royals by writing a laundry list of recommendations for the new American president.

Turki's public airing of such severe statements has led analysts to rethink his role in the Saudi power structure. Ted Karasik, a 20-year veteran Middle East analyst for the RAND Corp., says this signals Turki's place on the short list to replace Crown Prince Sultan, who is reportedly in failing health.

Saudi officials are now speaking more openly about the crown prince's illness; last year the reigning King Abdullah created an allegiance council, a body tasked with appointing the king's successor and formed to prevent the infighting and chaos of a messy transition.

“Typically it's been a guessing game as to who's up and who's down in Saudi Arabia. Most of it has to do with internal politics between the princes themselves,” said Karasik, now with the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Military Analysis.

One worst-case scenario, says Karasik, is a rapid succession of old and short-running monarchs -- a likely turnover that seems increasingly likely, given that most of the top contenders are in their 70s. Unlike in many countries, the Saudi succession is fratrilineal -- it passes among brothers, until now all sons of King Abdulaziz, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia. Other than Turki, Karasik thinks the most likely contenders are Prince Naif, the longtime interior minister, and Prince Salman, governor of the Riyadh region. Also mentioned is Prince Muqrin, the head of Saudi’s foreign intelligence service and a relatively young pick at age 66.

An interesting analysis from the Washington Institute underscored the importance of Saudi succession to U.S. foreign policy. The oil giant has been one of America’s chief allies in the Middle East, whose support it will increasingly rely on while tackling the Arab-Israeli conflict and the diplomatic puzzle of Iran.

“When Sultan and other senior royals die, Washington will lose familiar interlocutors,” wrote the institute’s Simon Henderson.

“Riyadh will be allergic to external interference or advice on such matters, but the outcomes of the probable transitions in the next few months will be of intense interest to the United States and much of the world.”